As polls close across the United States during the midterm elections this Tuesday, November 8, Trends Wide will begin making projections about the races.
Here’s what you need to know about how it works:
What is a Trends Wide “key run”? Who decides it?
“Key race” is a subjective term. Most political watchers generally agree that only a subset of races are truly competitive in November, and these are generally considered the key races. Political parties spend more money on these races. Journalists spend more time covering them.
Of the 35 Senate races in 2022, Inside Elections election forecasts see three as true bets and another four lean Republican or Democrat.
Nineteen House races are real gambles, though many more could end up being hotly contested. Five gubernatorial elections are a dubious outcome.
See Inside Elections ratings for Senate, House, and Governor.
Key careers can also be careers that may be less competitive but have broader implications or feature particularly notable candidates.
How does Trends Wide make the projections?
Using a mix of many factors, including current and previous election results, real-time exit polls, recent opinion polls, voter registration data and more, Trends Wide’s decision table is able to accurately project reliably that a candidate has received enough support to win. However, this is a projection and not the last word. State officials and the courts have the official word.
Can Trends Wide project a race without any votes?
This is a task that Trends Wide takes very seriously. Based on previous election results, exit polls, recent opinion polls, early voter turnout, and other factors, it is sometimes possible to see that a particular candidate will win a race. If there is any chance of a rollover, Trends Wide will refrain from making a projection.
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As polls close across the United States during the midterm elections this Tuesday, November 8, Trends Wide will begin making projections about the races.
Here’s what you need to know about how it works:
What is a Trends Wide “key run”? Who decides it?
“Key race” is a subjective term. Most political watchers generally agree that only a subset of races are truly competitive in November, and these are generally considered the key races. Political parties spend more money on these races. Journalists spend more time covering them.
Of the 35 Senate races in 2022, Inside Elections election forecasts see three as true bets and another four lean Republican or Democrat.
Nineteen House races are real gambles, though many more could end up being hotly contested. Five gubernatorial elections are a dubious outcome.
See Inside Elections ratings for Senate, House, and Governor.
Key careers can also be careers that may be less competitive but have broader implications or feature particularly notable candidates.
How does Trends Wide make the projections?
Using a mix of many factors, including current and previous election results, real-time exit polls, recent opinion polls, voter registration data and more, Trends Wide’s decision table is able to accurately project reliably that a candidate has received enough support to win. However, this is a projection and not the last word. State officials and the courts have the official word.
Can Trends Wide project a race without any votes?
This is a task that Trends Wide takes very seriously. Based on previous election results, exit polls, recent opinion polls, early voter turnout, and other factors, it is sometimes possible to see that a particular candidate will win a race. If there is any chance of a rollover, Trends Wide will refrain from making a projection.
