(Trends Wide Español) — Inflation always generates conversation, although sometimes technical terms make really understanding what it is and what it implies for your life seem complicated.
In recent weeks, the issue has generated increasing attention due to the increase in prices in the United States, to which are added the not very encouraging forecasts about how long this situation may last.
In the case of Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that during the first half of November, the price index stood at 7.05% per year. Jonathan Heath, deputy governor of Banco de México (Banxico), expressed on Twitter that annual inflation at 7.05% would be “the highest in more than 20 years” and indicated that it is “still on a clear upward trajectory”, qualifying it as worrying.
It is at this time that inflation becomes more important, although it is not yet very clear what it refers to. Don’t worry, here we explain you step by step.
For starters, we’ve already said one of the keywords in all of this: pricing.
What is inflation?
Inflation is the term that indicates that prices increase over time and, therefore, purchasing power decreases.
In other words, inflation indicates how much the prices of goods and services have risen in a given time; When prices increase over time, your money decreases in value (known as reduced purchasing power).
In summary, “inflation is the sustained and generalized increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy over time,” according to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the Mexican central bank that is in charge of preserving the value of the country’s currency.
A hypothetical example
Let’s take a hypothetical example. A kilo of chicken a year ago cost US $ 5 and is now worth US $ 5.31 (that is, an increase of 6.2%, which was in fact annual inflation in the US). This means that, if you previously had US $ 5, you could buy that kilo of chicken, but now with the same amount of money, it is not enough for you. Why? Due to inflation: prices rose and your purchasing power decreased.
More clearly: before you could buy more things with the same money and now that purchasing power went down because, even though you have the same amount of money, the prices went up.
Here it must be emphasized that the previous one is an example to illustrate the rise in prices. In reality, the phenomenon of inflation is more complex.
What’s the matter? Banxico explains that one cannot speak of inflation when only the price of one or a few products rises, nor can one speak of inflation when the price rose only once and a short time later it returned to normal.
As the definition says, to speak of the phenomenon of inflation, the increase in prices must be “sustained and generalized”, that is, it must be constant over time and encompass the generality of goods and services in the market.
When there is inflation, prices go up on food, of course; However, you can also observe increases in fuel or vehicles, for example. In fact, food, gas, gasoline and vehicles are among the groups that have seen the most price increases in the United States, which in October registered an inflation of 6.2% in the last 12 months, the largest increase in more than 30 years .
What causes prices to rise when it comes to inflation?
At this point we can talk about several scenarios:
- Increasing production costs. For example, if fuel prices rise, transporting products from one place to another is more expensive, so products have to raise their prices to generate returns.
- Increasing wages can also contribute to rising prices and thus contribute to the phenomenon of inflation. If employers pay their employees more, they will likely have to raise their prices to cover those labor costs.
- The rise in prices in the context of inflation can be generated when the demand for goods exceeds the supply. What does this mean? Let’s relate it to the previous point: if a worker earns more money from a salary increase, this usually causes him to buy more things (an increase in demand); however, there are not so many products on the market to meet this growing demand. Therefore, as there are fewer products on the shelves but more demand for them, prices go up for the few products that there are (in colloquial terms, it is as if it were a competition to see who has more to pay).
- In addition to the two previous points, we can also find another: if there is more money in circulation, this causes demand to increase beyond what is available in the market (supply) and therefore prices rise.
How is inflation measured?
This depends on the institutions and the methodology of each country. But it is possible to talk about some essential points for measurement.
- You have to track the price of thousands of products in the country.
- In the case of Mexico, for example, the monitoring is at more than 230,000 prices that are grouped into more than 283 categories (of which 82 are for products in the basic basket, such as eggs, tortillas, fruits, vegetables, etc.).
- Since the products and their price are identified, how much people spend on them is tracked.
- The monitoring of product prices and spending on them is usually weekly, biweekly, monthly or annually, precisely to see their evolution over time.
- When you have the above data, you can calculate how much the price has increased, if the increases have been constant and if it has been a general increase in all products. If so, we can talk about inflation.
Inflation is not synonymous with “bad”
We have already seen that the increase in product prices can affect people’s pockets, because if the product is more expensive than before and I have the same money, it will not be enough for me to make my purchases (less purchasing power or , which is the same, your money is worth less).
“If over time we see that the number of things that we can buy with the same amount of money is decreasing, we have less chance of saving and it is more difficult to invest in a business, this means that our money is worth less. In other words, there is inflation, ”explains Banxico.
However, we cannot say that inflation by itself is a bad thing.
Inflation is an economic phenomenon that responds to various factors, as already explained above. When inflation is high, it is clear that it affects us.
But, when prices rise slowly in a certain period, it is considered normal and even healthy for the economy (especially when there are salary increases), since there is a constant (and not excessive) purchase of products, which maintains the market dynamism and what causes economic growth.
Hyperinflation and deflation
Countries usually have an inflation target for each year (which requires internal and external factors to be met). That of the United States was 2% for 2021 and, as is known, inflation has shot up to 6.2% until October, which has been reflected in effects on people’s pockets.
Here we are talking about inflation that is higher than normal, but not out of control.
When inflation is out of control and rises too high, we speak of hyperinflation, which “has its origin in the rapid and excessive growth of the supply of money in the economy, which is not supported by an equivalent production of goods and services” , according to Banxico.
In short, it occurs when the production of goods and services is much less than the amount of money available. I have “a lot of money”, but there are no products. This causes the few products on the market to increase their value disproportionately (since there are many people who are looking for that minimum amount of available goods) and, even if they have money, what I have is no longer enough because the price is too high.
The most representative case of this is Venezuela: the International Monetary Fund forecasts that inflation in the South American country by 2021 will be 2,700% (the worst in the world), or 225% per month.
Banxico points out that hyperinflation is often spoken of when inflation is 50% or more in a month.
In the opposite case, we have deflation, which is when inflation drops significantly.
“The causes of this phenomenon can be several, but they are generally associated with reductions in the supply of money and in the demand for goods, although in the same way it can result from a higher production than required”, indicates the Banxico.
This means that deflation usually occurs when less money is printed and the purchase of goods decreases. As there is less demand for products, more supply of these due to the rise in production and less money circulating, prices fall and your money is worth more. Sounds like a good thing, right? But in economics everything must be seen with a magnifying glass.
“If this dynamic (of low prices) is prolonged, it may cause consumers to decide to postpone their spending while waiting for lower prices, reducing the demand for goods and services, causing businesses to lower their prices even further, causing a vicious cycle. This can lead companies to produce less, increasing unemployment. In this way, deflation can lead to an economic recession, ”explains Banxico.