Experts and analysts believe that Israel has begun to retreat politically and militarily from its initial goals of the war Gaza stripAnd it may have begun to pave the way for an exchange deal or a lull in operations after the dispute between its security and political institutions reached the stage of disintegration, and the army no longer wanted to continue fighting.
The occupation army radio had announced – earlier today, Monday – that only 3 divisions (99-162-96) are currently remaining in Gaza after the withdrawal of more forces.
The newspaper “Israel Hayom” also said that the 36th Division that was withdrawn includes brigades Golani The Sixth, Seventh, and 188th Brigade, in addition to the Engineering Corps.
Commenting on this withdrawal, military expert Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi said that it was due to many reasons, including that some of them – such as the Golani Brigade – received severe strikes at the hands of the resistance, as well as heading into the third phase of the ground war.
Al-Duwairi said, during his participation in the program “Gaza…what next?” On (1/15/2024), Israel withdrew the majority of its forces from northern Gaza, to fill a field need in the center and south, yet it did not achieve any achievement, which prompted it to withdraw new forces for rehabilitation.
Al-Duwairi believes that the forces that were withdrawn will be in a state of combat readiness after they qualify, pointing out that pushing them to other areas means that the war is continuing and will not stop. However, if they remain in a state of alert in the cover area, this may be an indication of thinking about stopping the fighting in a way. Or another.
Back off goals
In this context, political analyst Dr. Bilal Al-Shobaki said that the Israeli Defense Minister’s speech Yoav Galant – Today, Monday – about continuing the fight until victory is achieved, “it is natural, because he does not want to retract what he said before, when he was talking about many achievements, and he repeated that the recovery of prisoners will not be done except by force.”
However, the new speeches of Israeli officials, which began to ignore talk about eradicating Islamic resistance movement (Hamas) indicates an implicit retreat from their first goals, and that they want to save face for the War Council, especially Gallant, in Al-Shoubaki’s opinion.
Al-Shoubaki explains, “These conversations mean that Israel's military leaders realize the difficulty of eliminating an entire movement, but it is possible to direct specific strikes against it.”
Al-Shoubaki believes that this new Israeli talk “is in line with the change in the American talk about the possibility of coexistence with the movement and reducing its offensive capabilities,” describing the matter as “surrender in one form or another.”
On the other hand, in Gaza, writer and political analyst Ayman Al-Rafati indicated that residents expect a prisoner exchange deal soon, and perhaps a truce or a temporary cessation of the war, especially with the continued withdrawal of forces and the exacerbation of differences between Israeli institutions.
Al-Rafati believes that the withdrawal of forces may be a response, in one way or another, to the resistance’s condition of stopping the aggression before negotiating the prisoners, as well as reflecting the army’s support for an exchange deal in order to distance itself from the accusations.
Al-Rafati added, “There is information about new proposals that reached the resistance in the exchange file, coinciding with US President Joe Biden's talk about his strong effort to recover the prisoners, and the tense military situation on the ground.”
Israel has gone beyond confusion to disintegration
Regarding the increasing conversations inside Israel about the necessity of stopping the war and exchanging prisoners, Al-Shoubaki says that some ministers had concerns about the war at first, but they refrained from declaring them for fear of being accused of being unpatriotic, noting that they began announcing these concerns recently “because “What is happening now represents a danger to Israel.”
Al-Shobaki believes that there are disagreements affecting the security institutions and the government, especially the Shin Bet, which submitted reports to the Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu It warns him of the worsening situation in the West Bank, where it is no longer possible to talk about a security or military solution after the failure of this solution in Gaza.
Al-Shoubaki explains that the Tel Aviv operation that took place today, Monday, “means that the policy of eradicating resistance weapons does not mean stopping operations in one way or another, even in light of security precautions and fears.”
In addition, Israel found itself standing before the International Court of Justice on charges of committing genocide, “which put Netanyahu in a dilemma, because he was the one who stood up one day to tell the world that Israel is an oasis of security, democracy and investment, and now the picture is collapsing in front of everyone.” Al-Shoubaki says.
The same speaker concluded that the issue in Israel “went beyond confusion, and reached the point of disintegration of the radical institutions within the state.”
The same opinion was held by Al-Rafati, when he talked about the resistance having important pressure cards in the exchange file, which may give it the strength to adhere to its condition of stopping the aggression.
Also, the information that was revealed – during today, Monday and yesterday – regarding the fate of some prisoners “may force the government to enter into an exchange deal and overcome the obstacles placed by Netanyahu and Gallant, who want calm, not to stop the war,” according to Al-Rafati, who believes that the army “does not want to continue.” “The war does not leave the military prisoners in Gaza, but it is unable to recover them.”
In the end, Major General Al-Duwairi believes that Netanyahu will yield to the demand to stop the war due to the military faltering, but he believes that the timing depends on increasing internal pressure on the one hand and American pressure on the other.
He concluded that Washington could push Netanyahu to stop the war if it abandoned timid pressure and actually started threatening to reduce military supplies.