The value of exports of products from Latin America and the Caribbean would grow at an interannual rate of 25% in 2021, while the corresponding value of Mexico would climb 17%, projected this Tuesday the Cepal.
In the same comparison, the foreign sales of South America would rise 34%, those of the Caribbean would advance 31% and those of Central America would increase 24 percent.
In general, countries that sell raw materials abroad have been favored by the high international prices of these goods, while those that export manufactured goods were affected by the global shortage of semiconductor chips; both parties have faced logistical problems derived above all from the Covid-19 pandemic.
In its International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, the Cepal It projects that the increase in the value of regional exports of goods in the year will be driven by the 17% rise in export prices and an 8% expansion in volume.
On the other hand, the value of imports of goods would increase 32%, as a result of a 20% expansion in their volume and 12% in their prices.
South America would register the largest increase in exported value in 2021, since, given its export specialization, it would benefit especially from the higher prices of raw materials.
A similar situation is observed in the Caribbean, which will benefit from the high prices of oil, gas and bauxite exported by Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica, respectively.
At the opposite extreme, the value of Mexican exports (which mainly consist of manufactured goods) would grow, driven mainly by the expansion of their volume. A similar situation can be seen in the case of Central America.
For its part, the value of imports would grow more than 25% in all subregions and Mexico.
Among the main trading partners in the region, the greatest dynamism in 2021 is projected in flows with Asia and within the region itself.
The projected 35% increase in the value of exports to China is consistent with the structure of shipments to that country.
These are made up almost exclusively of raw materials and processed natural resources, so their value increases due to the higher prices of these products.
For its part, intraregional trade recovers in 2021 from a fall that began in February 2019 and which deepened abruptly during the pandemic.
Several manufacturing sectors, such as metalworking (83%), automotive (66%) and textiles, clothing and footwear (54%), showed high year-on-year increases in intraregional shipments during the first half of the year.
However, the regional market share in total exports of goods would stand at 13% in 2021, far from its maximum level of 21%, reached in 2008.