“Fattah 2″… Will the Iranian hypersonic missile overcome Israel's defenses?

“It can overcome the most advanced air defense systems.”

This is how Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi described the Fattah missile, after the Revolutionary Guard unveiled it last June in a solemn military ceremony as the first home-made hypersonic ballistic missile. Revolutionary Guard leaders confirmed at the time that the new missile was capable of penetrating the Israeli “Iron Dome” air defense system, and that they were currently working to increase the range of their hypersonic missiles to 2,000 kilometers, which would put Israel within range of this type of Iranian missile ( 1) (2).

This revelation ⑶ came at a time when tensions were increasing between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program, and the Fattah hypersonic missiles are just part of the arsenal of homemade ballistic missiles developed by the Iranian Guard over the past years, in clear defiance of international sanctions imposed by The United States and its European allies have imposed on Iran, including an arms embargo that prevents Tehran from obtaining advanced weapons.

With this discovery, Iran has become the first country in the Middle East to possess this technology, and the fourth country in the world on the list of countries that manufacture “hypersonic” missiles, after Russia, the United States of America, and China. But Tehran's march in this field did not stop there. On November 19, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard unveiled a new class of hypersonic missiles, the Fattah 2, which represented a potential strengthening of Iran's military capabilities against… Israel is in the midst of the war currently being waged by the Zionist occupation on the Gaza Strip.

What are hypersonic missiles?

Hypersonic weapons is a term given to weapons that exceed 5 times the speed of sound, that is, more than Mach 5 or more. Hypersonic missile technology is also characterized by its ability to launch outside the atmosphere, and then return to it again, and then begin to maneuver and move in the atmosphere. All directions to evade enemy defenses, which makes most of these missiles untraceable (4) (5).

The main advantage of hypersonic missiles is that there are no missile defense systems anywhere in the world advanced enough to deter such hypersonic weapons. Most missile defense systems are designed to intercept traditional ballistic missiles, which take a fixed arc path towards the target, and thus it is easy for them to predict the missile’s path and intercept it. (6) (7).

High hypersonic speeds pose a challenge to conventional defense systems, which take longer to sound alarms and activate anti-missile systems. Not to mention the maneuverability of hypersonic missiles, as they constantly change their course and move in all directions, and the more irregular the missile’s flight path is, the more difficult it is for anti-missile systems to intercept it (8).

What do we know about “Fattah 2”?

Fattah 2 is an updated and improved version of the Fattah 1 hypersonic missile that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard revealed last June, but the details of many of its capabilities are still unannounced. This caused great confusion in determining the type of the Fattah 2 hypersonic missile. While some local media described it as a “cruise missile,” many Western sources said it was a “ballistic missile.”

In 🇮🇷 IRGC-ASF classification:

– Fattah-1 is a hypersonic ballistic-missile (left)
– Fattah-2 is a hypersonic cruise-missile (right)

➡️ Main difference: Fattah-1 engages later with the atmosphere, Fattah-2 sooner

More details in this short thread
(1/4) pic.twitter.com/t2mkdSlpJi

— Patarames (@Pataramesh) November 19, 2023

Intelligence analysts believe that the Fattah 1 is a ballistic missile, while the Fattah 2 is a cruise missile. Cruise missiles differ from ballistic missiles – other than the design – in a major matter, which is the flight path. The former follows a directed flight path at a relatively low altitude, which… It enables it to move around obstacles and terrain, while the second one follows a curved path, rising to a great height at first and then quickly descending towards the target.

The Fattah 2 missile likely consists of two parts ⑾, a main engine and a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that separates from the missile itself, providing it with a greater ability to make sharp maneuvers that make its trajectory difficult to predict, thus evading conventional missile defense systems and moving faster than The speed of sound towards the desired target. In addition, this missile can change the direction of the target repeatedly, which makes it difficult for missile defense systems to recognize it.

Iran has not yet released any technical information regarding the new missile, but it is likely that its range will be greater than the original Fattah missile, which has a range of up to 1,400 kilometers. The Iranian Tasnim News Agency indicated that the speed of Fattah 2 ranges between Mach 5-20, depending on the design and the opinion of the designing company. Mach is the unit of measurement for the speed of sound, and this is equal to between 6 thousand and 24 thousand kilometers per hour. Military experts have indicated that the Fattah 2 would be more suitable for a pre-emptive strike than the Fattah 1, due to its ability to fly at low altitudes and follow an unpredictable path, making it capable of confronting or bypassing the middle of the enemy line (12).

Conclusion:

Fattah-2 is superior in a scenario of a pre-emptive strike:
– Flying lower
– Flying less predictable/different direction
– Countering mid-course interceptors

Fattah-1:
– Maneuvers at higher G and velocities to better defeat terminal ABM systems
– Is more affordable pic.twitter.com/hxEDDYeaQs

— Patarames (@Pataramesh) November 19, 2023

Does it change the rules of the game?

The hypersonic weapons race raises a lot of controversy in the world today, because acquiring them seems much easier than defending against them, regardless of the technical superiority of the defending force, and this applies to the Israeli occupation state, and even to the United States itself (13). For Israel, there is Two systems Two essentials for air defense, the first is the “Iron Dome” system, which is designed to intercept short-range missiles, and the second is the “Arrow-3” system, which has been used in Israeli air bases since 2017, and was developed with American support in cooperation with the American company “Boeing”.

The “Arrow-3” system is designed specifically to confront long-range missiles and intercept ballistic missiles outside the Earth's atmosphere. It contains a missile launcher, a launch control radar (FCR), and an early warning radar system to track long-range ballistic missiles. Thus, it is considered a powerful air defense system to confront missiles. Conventional ballistic missiles, but when facing hypersonic missiles, it depends more on the speed of the missile and the extent of its ability to maneuver, which makes these missiles a real threat.

The same applies to the American air defense system “THAAD”, which is also designed to intercept conventional short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, but not hypersonic missiles, and so far the United States of America is still unable to keep pace with the development of this type of weapon, according to what a report stated. ⒃ Wall Street Journal: Most of the existing American projects to defend against hypersonic missiles are either under development or under testing, which required General Glenn D. VanHerck, commander of the US Northern Command and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), to make a statement during his testimony ⒄ Before the US Senate Armed Services Subcommittee, the primary focus of the 2024 funding plan will focus on military research and development for combat hypersonic weapons.

General VanHerck asserts that the greatest danger facing the United States of America is its inability to change at the pace required by the changing strategic environment, noting that such capabilities of hypersonic weapons, including high maneuverability and low and unpredictable flight paths, make the tasks of air defense systems difficult. America and limit its ability to protect the United States.

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Sources:

1. TERROR ROCKET Iran unveils chilling new Fattah-2 hypersonic missile ‘capable of beating Israel’s Iron Dome defences at 11,000mph’
2. Fattah hypersonic missile…the most prominent Iranian military industry and its trump card to confront the enemy
3. Iran unveils what it calls a hypersonic missile able to beat air defenses amid tensions with US
4. Explainer: What is a hypersonic missile?
5. What Are Hypersonic Weapons and Who Has Them?
6. Putin Warns That Russia Is Developing ‘Invincible’ Hypersonic Missiles
7. “Dong-Feng Hell”… How do Chinese hypersonic missiles change the future of wars? Hypersonic missiles
8. Iran Unveils New Missile with Hypersonic Glide Vehicle: Could It Soon Carry Nuclear Warheads?
9. 4th Country With Hypersonic Tech, Expert Calls Iran’s Fattah-2 As Uninterceptable Cruise Missile Ideal For Preemptive Strikes
10. Iran unveils upgraded hypersonic missile as Khamenei touts Israel ‘failure
11. Unveiling of the Fattah 2 hypersonic missile
12. Hypersonic Missiles Are Unstoppable. And They’re Starting a New Global Arms Race
13. The Arrow-3 missiles are a system developed by Israel with American support
14. THAAD, a ballistic missile hunter
15. Hypersonic Missiles Are Game-Changers, and America Doesn’t Have Them
16. Iran celebrates new hypersonic missile amid new threats by its proxies against US, allies