The head of the Senate Republican reelection arm is very optimistic about his party’s chances next year of winning back the Senate majority they just lost in the 2020 cycle.
Looking to the 2022 midterm elections, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chair Sen. Rick Scott of Florida recently predicted that “as long as we get our message out, raise our money and get good candidates, we’re going to have a hell of a ’22.”
BIDEN APPROVAL ABOVE WATER BUT PRESIDENT GETS THUMBS DOWN ON KEY ISSUES
The Senate is currently split 50-50 between the two major parties, but Democrats hold a razor-thin majority in the chamber due to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris through her constitutional role as president of the Senate.
Looking at the electoral map, Republicans are playing plenty of defense. They’re defending 20 of the 34 seats up for grabs in next year’s midterm elections – including having to protect five open seats where GOP incumbents are retiring. But the NRSC also sees strong pickup opportunities in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Here are five key questions that could determine whether the GOP wins back the majority or if the Democrats keep and possibly strengthen their control of the chamber.
Will Biden’s approval ratings hold up?
Midterm elections are often heavily influenced by public perceptions of the president’s performance, especially in down-ballot races. Just as the 2018 midterms were very much a referendum on then-President Donald Trump, the 2022 contests may be all about his Democratic successor in the White House, President Biden.
The general consensus was that Sununu would make up his mind on whether he’d launch a Senate campaign, run for reelection as governor, or not run at all and return to the private sector, after the end of the state legislative session and last week’s signing of the state’s next two-year budget.
But Sununu has dashed those expectations, saying in two recent radio interviews that “I won’t make a decision for a really long time.”
“I’m really going to enjoy having a summer and fall … of just being a governor,” he emphasized in one of the interviews.
NEW HAMPSHIRE GOV. SUNUNU TAKES AIM AT CONGRESS
Sununu, whose coattails from his landslide reelection victory last November helped the Republicans win back majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature as well as the Executive Council, has earned the right to make his decision and announcement on his own timetable. But the governor’s political team tells Fox News that they and Sununu are cognizant that others are waiting for a signal, and that once the governor announces his next move, the other dominoes will quickly fall.
If Sununu doesn’t run for the Senate, sources close to former Sen. Kelly Ayotte – who lost her 2016 reelection bid to Hassan by just 1,017 votes – tell Fox News it’s doubtful she’ll launch a Senate campaign. But they say Ayotte may possibly run for governor if Sununu doesn’t seek reelection.
There are fewer GOP concerns in Nevada, where Scott said he expects former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt to launch a Republican challenge against Democratic first-term Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto.
Will Herschel Walker launch a campaign in Georgia?
Republicans see Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia as one of the most vulnerable Democrats running for reelection in 2022.
Warnock defeated appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler by a razor-thin margin in Georgia’s twin Senate runoff elections on Jan. 5, to serve the final two years of the term of former GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, who resigned in 2019 due to health reasons.
GEORGIA’S LOEFFLER ‘NOT RULING OUT ANYTHING’ REGARDING POTENTIAL 2022 SENATE RUN
Many in the GOP are waiting for signals from Herschel Walker. The former star professional football player and college gridiron legend in the Peach State – he won a Heisman Trophy and helped steer the University of Georgia to a college football national championship – has been encouraged by Trump to run for the Senate.
The former president has said he would endorse Walker if he runs. And last week Trump said in a radio interview that Walker would run.
Walker teased in a tweet last month that he’s got “Georgia on my mind” and said in an accompanying video that he’s “getting ready.”
But Georgia Republicans are getting anxious.
“We’re all waiting to see if Herschel is going to run or not run. I’d be lying to say we weren’t getting antsy,” Georgia based GOP consultant Chip Lake told Fox News recently. “It’s time that Herschel lets us know he’s running or lets us know he’s not running. Because as every day goes by, Raphael Warnock is raising more money.”
If he runs, Walker would have to move to Georgia from Texas, which he currently calls home. And some Georgia Republicans are concerned about a possible political train wreck if Walker declares his candidacy.
Pointing to Walker’s well-publicized battle with mental illness, a Republican strategist in Georgia who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely said, “We don’t know what a Herschel Walker candidacy looks like. What type of a candidate is he going to be? How is going to handle being thrown into the fire? Is he going to be quick on his feet?”
TRUMP URGES WALKER TO RUN FOR SENATE
Four-term Rep. Buddy Carter is one of the Republican politicians waiting on Walker. Carter has said he’ll launch a Senate campaign if Walker decides not to run.
Three Georgia Republicans have already jumped into the race. The most prominent is state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, who declared his candidacy earlier this month. Two military veterans who are not well-known, Kelvin King and Latham Saddler, launched Republican Senate campaigns earlier this year.
And Loeffler may also run again, telling Fox News two weeks ago that “I have not ruled anything out.”
Will Trump’s impact help or hurt the GOP?
The former president remains incredibly popular with GOP base voters, according to public opinion polling, and retains immense clout over Republican politicians more than five months after the end of his tenure in the White House. This as Trump continues to play a kingmaker’s role in GOP politics and repeatedly flirts with another presidential campaign in 2024.
“He cuts both ways. There’s no question that he helps turn out a lot of new voters that traditionally hadn’t voted or hadn’t voted for Republicans,” said Walsh, a partner at Plus Communications. “On the other hand, he also alienated a number of college-educated suburban voters.”