Foreign Affairs: The Israeli ground attack requires huge amounts of troops and weapons Policy

An article in the American magazine Foreign Affairs reported that fighting Israel, the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) In Gaza it will be difficult and expensive.

The article, written by David Kilcullen, an Australian author, counterinsurgency expert, and professor at Arizona State University, summarized the aspects of urban combat and the difficulties that Israel would face if it decided to invade. Gaza.

The writer said that fighting in urban areas represents a difficult tactical dilemma for the attacker, as every room, corner, street, and rooftop must be secured before moving on to the next area, which requires huge amounts of forces and weapons on the ground, in the air, and at sea, and the results of this will be tested. Invasion The international community supported Israel.

Terrifying tactical conditions

The article points out that the wars that took place in this century took place in urban areas such as cities Fallujah AndMosul AndGray Iraq, the Philippine city of Marawi, and my city Bakhmut And the Ukrainian Mariupol took place in terrifying tactical conditions and included fierce fighting from room to room and in tunnels, which resulted in huge loss of life.

He added that Israel’s attack, if carried out on Gaza, would be a land, air and sea attack, would require precise timing coordination, and would be slow and grinding.

He said that given that military forces use long-range weapons, inland areas can increasingly be targeted by naval weapons, and land weapons can target ships at sea, and in this sense, the entire eastern Mediterranean will form a single regional theater, influencing and being affected by events on the ground in Gaza. .

Clashes over short distances

The article emphasizes that urban wars occur on land, in the air, and at sea. As for land, both soldiers and civilians participating in the fighting face severe physical and psychological challenges, as the feeling of constant danger, fatigue, constant threat from all directions, and the terror of combat affect the psyche and mentality of the fighters. Battles are usually confusing and short, and often include clashes with targets within close range. Not more than 45 metres.

He pointed out that both Hamas and Israel possess some naval systems, as the Israeli Navy possesses fast attack boats in addition to warships and special forces, and the Israeli army has experience in urban warfare that it gained in Jenin in the West Bank in 2002, and southern Lebanon during the war with Hizb allah In 2006, and the Palestinian territories, Hamas has elite units, which are naval commando forces that led a naval raid on Zikim Beach in Israel on October 7, and seized a military base south of Ashkelon.

Israeli concern about the joining of regional players

He says that the Hamas attack on the seventh of this month began as a shocking and sudden attack and was not expected to escalate into a costly and long-term battle, adding that the complex and dense urban environment in Gaza will make it difficult for ground forces to understand what is happening, and Israeli army planners will be concerned about the joining of regional players. Others, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iranian-backed militias in Syria, could create a multi-front war. This could prompt Israel to launch a pre-emptive strike on regional players before entering Gaza, but such a strike would be a high-risk gamble.

The article adds that the ground campaign in Gaza entails strategic risks, as the destruction of property, the killing of civilians, and the expulsion of residents, which many consider ethnic cleansing, may harm Israel’s moral legitimacy and reputation and lead to imposing a cessation of political attacks regardless of military progress on the ground, as happened in the Battle of Gaza. The first Fallujah in Iraq in 2004, when a political decision was issued to stop American soldiers and marines. The strategic impact of the loss of moral legitimacy will be severe for Israel and its allies, including the United States.

Israel will not succeed in separating combatants from civilians

The writer expected that Israeli efforts to encourage civilians to leave Gaza through official crossing points or designated humanitarian corridors would not succeed entirely, based on what happened in Marawi in the Philippines and Mosul in Iraq, as fighters in the two cities prevented civilians from leaving.

The article also noted that Hamas has developed a dense network of defenses in Gaza, including a system expenditure Its length is about 483 km, and this underground war, especially in the tunnels near the coast, will be a difficult aspect of the battle, and robotic weapons such as drones can help in cleaning the underground passages, and the intervention of soldiers with weapons, sensors and night vision devices will be necessary to get rid of such These tunnels.