The American magazine Foreign Policy published an article in which the writer expressed his belief that the world will not be the same after the war between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation), adding that it will have wide-ranging geopolitical repercussions.
The magazine’s columnist, Stephen M. Walt, began his article by asking whether the repercussions of the war currently taking place in the Gaza Strip will be far-reaching. He answered that conflicting geopolitical developments – as a general rule – are usually met by forces of different stripes, and that events in a small region of the world do not tend to have massive ripple effects elsewhere.
According to the writer, crises and wars do break out, but calm minds usually prevail to limit their consequences. But this does not always happen, and perhaps the war in Gaza is one of the exceptions.
The writer says that he does not think that a third world war is on the horizon, but he would not be surprised if the fighting taking place now led to a larger regional conflict.
Although he does not think that a third world war is on the horizon, he adds that he would not be surprised if the fighting taking place now led to a larger regional conflict.
In this regard, he said that he does not completely rule out this possibility, as none of the countries and groups standing on the sidelines of the event (such as Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and others) seem to be keen on getting involved directly, and that American officials are trying to keep the conflict in its local sphere.
Even if this war is limited to the Gaza Strip and ends soon, it will have “major” effects on the entire world.
To consider how significant these effects might be, it is important, according to Walt, to recall the general state of geopolitics prior to Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7. Before that attack, the United States and its allies were waging a “proxy” war against Russia in Ukraine. Its aim was to help Ukraine expel Russia from the territories it seized after February 2022, and to weaken Russia so that it would not be able to carry out similar actions in the future.
The writer went on to say that this war was not going well; Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the summer stalled, the balance of military power appeared to be gradually tilting in Moscow’s favor, and hopes that Kiev would be able to regain its lost territory either by force of arms or through negotiations faded.
The United States was also waging a virtual economic war against China, with the aim of preventing Beijing from controlling the strategic sectors controlling the production of semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and other high-tech fields.
The Foreign Policy article explained that the administration of the US President joe biden It intended to pay more attention to its archrival (China).
In the Middle East, the Biden administration was trying – as the American columnist and academic says – to implement a complex diplomatic plan. It sought to discourage Saudi Arabia from getting closer to China, and urged it to normalize relations with Israel. But her critics warned her against ignoring the Palestinian issue.
Then came the October 7 attack, and what that meant for Washington’s geopolitics and foreign policy. First of all, the war put an obstacle to the Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts, and the author of the article claims that stopping those attempts was one of Hamas’ goals.
The war will also conflict with American efforts to devote less time and focus to the Middle East, and give more attention and effort to the Far East in Asia, according to Walt.
In short – the writer adds – the ongoing war in the Middle East is not good news for Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, or any other country that is under increasing pressure from China.
In the conclusion of his article, Walt believes that the war in Gaza would not expand to include Lebanon or Iran, which would have pushed the United States and others toward a new, more deadly situation that would drain more time, attention, and resources.