A former US diplomat warned that a world war that the United States could lose is not far off, saying it is time to act with real urgency to mobilize America, its defenses and its allies for what could become a contemporary global crisis.
Aaron Weiss Mitchell, former Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, explained that the United States is in trouble on three fronts, with Russia moving toward a long war in… Ukraine Opening a new front in the Middle East, and increasing the temptation for China to quickly arm itself to make a move on Taiwan.
He added that the United States must be extremely alert to this scenario in the hope of deterring conflict, and that effective preparation is the way to improve its ability to deter and send a clear signal to adversaries that aggression is more dangerous to themselves than stability and peace.
America is not ready now
He said that the latest two national defense strategies made clear that the US army today is not designed to fight wars against two major opponents at the same time, and that any Chinese attack on Taiwan would expose the United States to intense pressure to reject the attack while maintaining the flow of support to Ukraine and Israel.
He added that confronting escalating wars in at least three remote theaters requires a degree of national unity, mobilization of resources, and a willingness to sacrifice that the Americans and their allies have not seen in generations.
The writer stated that the United States had waged multi-front wars before, but in previous conflicts, it was always able to outperform its opponents, but this is no longer the case now: the Chinese navy is actually larger than the United States in terms of the huge number of ships, and it is growing by Equivalent to the entire French Navy (about 130 ships every 4 years). By comparison, the US Navy plans to expand by 75 ships over the next decade.
Economics and human cost
The other related disadvantage, the writer says, is money. It is possible that America will enter into debt exceeding 100% of GDP and inflation reaching 200% of GDP or higher, indicating that the Congressional Budget Office and other sources have confirmed that debt burdens on this scale may threaten catastrophic consequences for the American economy. and the global financial system.
Other risks include: Verbose closing forStrait of Hormuz Amid a broader conflict in the Middle East that is pushing oil prices beyond $100 a barrel, significantly increasing inflationary pressures.
He noted that all of this pales next to the human costs the United States could incur in a global conflict; It is possible that large numbers of American service members will die, because some of America’s opponents possess conventional and nuclear capabilities that can reach America. Others have the potential to inspire or direct “terrorist” attacks on US soil that may be easier to carry out given the porous state of the US southern border.
Immediate priority
The writer called for the immediate priority of the United States to be to ensure that Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan obtain the weapons they need to defend themselves, saying that these are the main players at the present time, and that the best hope for avoiding a general conflict is for these border countries to be brave and strong to stop the “aggression.” Or deter it before it spreads.
He went on to say that the situation is serious enough that Washington may need to invoke the Defense Production Act and start converting some civilian industries to military purposes. Until then, the US government may have to take aggressive steps including redirecting materials destined for the consumer economy, expanding production facilities, and reviewing environmental regulations that complicate the production of war materials. All this to prepare the American industrial base for packaging.
He concluded that America and its allies are facing a period of difficult decisions, saying that what is happening in Ukraine and Israel was unimaginable even a few years ago, and that the Americans and their allies need to start arranging their affairs now so that they do not find themselves unprepared for a global conflict.
