GDP will exceed pre-pandemic peak until 2024: CEESP

Given the complexity of the international environment regarding growing inflation and uncertainty, the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP) predicted that it will be until 2024 when Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product returns to the maximum level it reached prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. 19, corresponding to 2018.

The body grouped in the Business Coordinating Council (CEE) demanded that the federal government reduce uncertainty and increase confidence in economic policy.

“The complexity of the international environment in the midst of persistent global inflationary pressures and the sharp increase in interest rates as a result of monetary policies that seek to reduce them, further reduce growth expectations,” he said.

Through its weekly analysis, CEESP lamented that international problems are compounded by high levels of insecurity, a weak rule of law and onerous regulation that, among other elements, raise various costs in the economy. “All of this implies strong limitations on economic activity,” he said.

National and international specialists consider that the effects of these factors could be more drastic in the following months, causing the Mexican economy to weaken even more than previously expected next year, delaying its recovery until 2024, one more year, period with the which the private sector agrees.

Estimates from international organizations reflect greater pessimism. The Forecast of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Mexico’s growth in 2023 recently fell by six tenths of a percentage point and that of the World Bank by four to coincide both at 1.5 percent.

“If the aforementioned forecasts are fulfilled, the value of the GDP in 2023 would still be below its value in 2018, which indicates that it could be until the end of the six-year term when this objective is achieved.”

lilia.gonzalez@eleconomista.mx