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Al Jazeera Net correspondents
Moscow- Since Russia launched what it calls the special military operation in Ukraine in February 2021, no country has been able to surprise the situation towards this war as Georgia did, the country that entered with Russia into a fierce war in August 2008, called the Ossetian War, and it ended in victory. Russia and the declaration of South Ossetia as an independent state after its secession as an autonomous republic from Georgia.
The surprise lies in the fact that Georgia – which is classified as an enemy of Russia – did not join the sanctions war against Moscow, contrary to all expectations, especially since Tbilisi put all its political weight towards moving towards European and Atlantic integration.
It is not considered a secret that the political forces in this country were characterized by competition among themselves to support joining the Western geopolitical project in the South Caucasus, leading to joining the NATO.
The “shock” came after one year of war and the continuation of a series of sanctions against Russia when, on February 26, 2022, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili called on the international community to do everything in its power to stop the fighting, and announced that his country would not join Western financial and economic sanctions against Russia. .
Balance of necessity
With the adoption of anti-Moscow sanctions packages by the United States and…European Union Georgia has made clear its position that it complies with all international restrictions so as not to fall under their influence, but in return it will not impose special restrictions against Russia as other countries have done.
While Tbilisi tried to “hold the stick from the middle” and maintain the same distance between Moscow and the West, the Georgian intelligence service’s announcement of revealing “a group of conspirators who were planning to organize mass unrest in the country with the aim of overthrowing the current regime in the country” redirected the focus of attention to internal events within the country. The Soviet Republic and an important country in the South Caucasus region.
According to Georgian intelligence, the “conspiring group” planned to establish a tent city in central Tbilisi, erect barricades and close government buildings, and then detonate a bomb in the tent city, which would lead to a large number of casualties among demonstrators and security forces as a prelude to igniting a civil war.
It was noteworthy that Tbilisi confirmed that “foreign countries coordinated and financed the coup attempt,” and that the “mastermind” was Georgi Lortkipanidze, the former Deputy Minister of the Interior, who now holds the position of Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service.
A number of Russian and Georgian observers believe that the talk is about attempts to start a “Ukrainian scenario” and repeat the “European Maidan” in Kiev in 2014, in anticipation of the country’s departure from the path towards the West and to thwart any operations that could lead to its departure from the American “house of obedience,” according to a description. Some of them.
Political realism
In the opinion of Caucasus affairs analyst Alexander Yudin, it is not expected that Georgia will endure further delays in its integration process into Europe for a long time, and that the Republic’s abandonment of the Euro-Atlantic path is no longer unlikely in the foreseeable future, especially in light of the increasing rapprochement with Russia, even if it is still… Limited to economic files.
Yudin added in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that he does not rule out that the West will try to destabilize the social and political situation in Georgia to prevent this rapprochement, including with China.
He explains that indicators of the political movement in Georgia indicate a focus on regional cooperation, in light of the development of the Chinese “Silk Road” and the Turkish gas center that will be located there, in addition to Russian, Azerbaijani, and Turkmen gas, which will enhance Georgia’s role as a transit country for transporting goods and energy supplies.
Yudin believes that Russia will welcome any reasonable steps taken by Georgia that meet its national interests, pointing out that independence in foreign policy is what Moscow calls for all countries of the world.
In turn, Levan Mamaladze, a specialist in Georgian affairs, told Al Jazeera Net that the Georgian leadership has always angered Ukraine and the West, whether by refusing to transfer weapons to Kiev or participating in imposing sanctions on Russia and “another front” against Moscow.
He continued that while Ukraine does not have the means to pressure Georgia, but Western countries use a wide range of tools, the United States went in the spring of this year, for the first time in the history of bilateral relations, to impose sanctions against a number of Georgian citizens, including the former prosecutor general. Otar Partskhaladze, and Tbilisi became a place of pilgrimage for many Western delegations to persuade the Georgian authorities to stop dealing with Moscow.
Although it is unlikely that any alliance will occur in the foreseeable future between Tbilisi and Moscow, the two sides will continue to develop “pragmatic” relations.
In parallel, political analyst Mamaladze stresses the state of disappointment that has begun to appear in Georgia in light of the procrastination, not only in joining the European Union, but even in discussing this file, with Western estimates indicating that accession – at best – will not take place before the year 2030. .
It is noteworthy that despite the growth of trade and economic relations between Russia and Georgia, as well as the direct flights that recently returned between them, there is no talk yet about resuming diplomatic relations, nor even about opening trade missions, while Switzerland continues to take care of the interests between the two countries.
