Global X-ray of the delivery of arms to Ukraine: who participates in the operation and how | International

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has provoked, among other reactions, a clear escalation of Western military support for the attacked country. After the outbreak of the conflict in 2014, the support gradually intensified, but above all with advice, training, financial aid —especially from the United States and the United Kingdom— and very limited deliveries of weapons. The sealed contract for the supply of Turkish armed drones was, in that period, the most relevant development. That dynamic has completely changed with the invasion.

Europe is the most obvious example of a turn with historical features. For the first time, the European Union —through the Commission— has decided to coordinate a joint purchase of lethal war material, which will be delivered to the Ukrainian forces. A fund of around 450 million euros has been set up for these purposes.

In addition, countries such as Germany, Sweden, Norway or Finland have decided to supply arms to Kiev, something that represents a notable change from the restrictive policies in this area that have marked the agenda of these countries for decades. The vast majority of EU governments have taken steps in the same direction. The Spanish Government has joined on Wednesday. For its part, Poland is the logistics base from which the transport of weapons by land is organized, given the danger of the air environment.

Beyond the EU, the United States stands out as Ukraine’s main military supporter. Its support is quantified at some 2,500 million dollars (about 2,260 million euros) since 2014. US support has had different flanks, the most relevant probably being the aspect of training and advice and the delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles. After the Russian invasion last week, President Joe Biden has authorized a new item of 350 million.

Among the main actors in supporting Ukraine, Turkey stands out, with the supply since 2019 of the aforementioned armed drones —Bayraktar TB2 model, along with the relevant radars and missiles—, which have proven effective in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine announced on Wednesday that his country plans to receive a new shipment. The United Kingdom played an important role in the formation of the Ukrainian forces, and also in the delivery of weapons.

The new aid announcements include different types of weapons, but mainly anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. Submachine guns, howitzers and assault rifles have also been offered. The EU is studying the possibility of delivering combat aircraft, although the project does not seem to take off.

Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher with the arms supply program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, sums up the movement this way: “These are generally weapons that the Ukrainian forces can easily use; that Western countries have in stock and can deliver quickly; the amounts involved are not huge, but they are useful weapons. They do not imply a major change in the balance on the battlefield, but they are relevant and, above all, they send a strong political message”, says the expert.

Among the difficulties faced by the initiative, the problem of finding a balance between reinforcing Ukraine without allowing Russia to consider this aid as an intervention in the conflict stands out. The Ukrainian leaders demand that this support, essential to resist, be increased and accelerated. Here’s a look at the main types of weapons that have been committed to aid, and who’s supplying them.

anti-tank missiles

It is one of the weapons that appears most frequently in aid announcements, obviously very useful in the scenario of ground aggression with columns of tanks and armored vehicles of all kinds penetrating Ukrainian territory. The Javelin model, manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, is a reference. It has a range of about 2.5 kilometers. The US began delivering them already before the invasion, in 2018, although under the condition that Ukraine store them away from the Donbas combat zones. Other countries, such as Poland or Estonia, have now joined in supplying this model.

The United Kingdom, for its part, also began delivery of the NLAW model, made by Anglo-Swedish (Saab-Thales) and with a range of between 400 and 800 meters depending on models and objectives, before the invasion. In January it had already provided some 2,000 to Ukraine, according to its Defense Minister. “They were able to deliver them and also train to use them before the invasion. One week of training is enough,” explains Wezeman. Sweden has committed 5,000 NLAWs and Luxembourg 100. Germany has also announced the shipment of 1,000 anti-tank weapons. Norway will contribute 2,000 M72 grenade launchers also made by the United States. And the Netherlands, 50 Panzerfaust-3 with 400 rockets.

anti-aircraft missiles

It is another of the most recurrent weapons in help announcements, and especially the Stinger model. It is a surface-to-air missile, also manufactured by Raytheon, which has been used by many armed forces for decades. Germany has committed 500, the Netherlands 200.

Airspace control is a crucial aspect of any war effort. Russian forces have attempted to downgrade Ukraine’s most sophisticated air defense systems, such as the S-300. As those systems become unusable, it will become increasingly important to at least have models like the Stinger, which are portable and not too difficult to use, Wezeman says.

fighter planes

During an appearance last Sunday, the high representative of Foreign Affairs of the EU, Josep Borrell, declared that the partners were considering the delivery of combat aircraft to Ukraine. The basic idea was to resort to MiG or Sukhoi models supplied to some of the member countries —Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia—, since the Ukrainian pilots are familiar with this type of aircraft. However, in the following days, statements by political leaders from those countries have cast doubts on the viability of the operation.

“Different types of problems are piling up for this operation,” Wezeman reasons. “On the one hand, the fact that this would indeed be a delivery with great offensive potential, and, therefore, supposes a greater confrontation with Russia”. This is obviously a weight factor. “On the other hand, Bulgaria, for example, points out that if it were to hand over these devices, it would be left uncovered, and it would be necessary for other allies to bring it under their umbrella.”

armed drones

The supply of Turkish drones is an aspect of great relevance. The Bayraktar TB2 has shown great combat effectiveness in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia and has been used by the Ukrainian forces themselves in the past in clashes in Donbas. It is an unmanned aerial vehicle with a wingspan of 12 meters, a flight capacity of up to 27 hours and can be loaded with four laser-guided missiles.

“As far as we know, Turkey has delivered a dozen of these devices,” explains Wezeman. “It is a weapon that is undoubtedly very useful in an environment of great difficulty to move in the airspace and with the tactics of the Russian ground forces by which we are witnessing the formation of large convoys. Armed drones can do a lot of damage in situations like that. But Ukraine doesn’t have many, and there are also limitations on ammunition.”

Geopolitical calculations weigh on the new Turkish deliveries, with Ankara that in recent times has been trying to rebuild a relationship with Moscow weighed down for multiple reasons. “Kiev says that it will receive more, but we are waiting for a Turkish confirmation. Ankara faces a difficult balance game”.

A very complex board, in which each move is highly relevant, especially in view of the great superiority of the weapons available to the Russian armed forces.

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