- Punxsutawney Phil will make his annual prediction Sunday morning.
- The forecast calls for cloudy skies, which favors no shadow sighting and an early start to spring, according to legend.
- But, history shows a shadow sighting and six more weeks of winter is the more likely outcome.
Everyone will be waiting on the edge of their seats on Sunday morning when, according to legend, the notorious groundhog forecaster, Punxsutawney Phil, will predict whether spring is around the corner or if we have to trudge through six more weeks of winter.
Unfortunately, the famous rodent doesn’t forecast for his own big day – so, you’re stuck with us.
Here’s the forecast for Sunday morning: Cloudy conditions and chilly temperatures around 20 degrees are expected in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, when Phil makes his prediction around 7:08 a.m. ET.
This is good news for those tired of the brutal winter we have seen this year. The lack of direct sunlight as a result of the cloudy skies would imply Phil is unlikely to see his shadow, and we are headed for an early start to spring.
However, if the groundhog does see his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter rather than above average temperatures, according to legend.
Forecast for 7 a.m. Sunday morning in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania
To see or not to see? Seeing his shadow is more likely. Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow about five times more often than he hasn’t, based on historical records. However, last year did not fall in line with the norm.
Phil has now seen his shadow 107 times, with no shadow 21 times (10 years of data are missing), according to records from NOAA dating back to 1887.
Should meteorologists be worried about Phil’s forecasting prowess? The answer – thankfully – is no. Overall, the groundhog is not very accurate, and NOAA said Punxsutawney Phil has “no predictive skill.”
Of course, even the organizers of the annual Groundhog Day event in western Pennsylvania acknowledge that turning to a large rodent for weather forecasting is mostly a way to break up winter monotony.
Phil’s accuracy was just 35% from 2005 to 2024, according to data compiled by NOAA.
However, last year’s declaration of an early spring was a pretty accurate prediction. Much of the country saw above average temperatures, including Phil’s hometown state, in February and March.
According to the recent outlook from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, warmer-than-average temperatures are expected to invade much of the U.S. for the rest of winter and early spring this year. So we’ll see if Phil agrees.
Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, Friday, Feb. 2, 2024.
(AP Photo/Barry Reeger)
Here’s when Groundhog Day began: The first mention of Groundhog Day came in 1886 in Punxsutawney.
Over the years, several other locations have begun using their own groundhog, including General Beauregard Lee of Atlanta, Dunkirk Dave of Dunkirk, New York, and Jimmy of Sun Prairie, Wisconsin.
Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.
