Baseball’s Unpredictable 2025 Season: Playoff Hopes Rise and Fall as Midseason Drama Unfolds
By Tim Britton, Johnny Flores Jr., and Andy McCullough
In a sport where projections often crumble under the weight of reality, the 2025 MLB season has been a masterclass in turmoil and triumph. The Atlanta Braves, once a near-lock for October with 93.4% playoff odds, now teeter at 6.3% after a cascading collapse. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have defied expectations, doubling their postseason chances since Opening Day. As teams pivot toward the trade deadline, we revisit preseason forecasts versus current realities, using FanGraphs’ playoff odds to chart their journeys.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (56-36)
Preseason/Current Odds: 98.0% → 99.7%
Despite leading the NL West, the Dodgers grapple with a mounting injury crisis. Ace Tyler Glasnow (out since April) and closer Blake Treinen (absent since mid-April) headline a disabled list that also includes Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki. Even Mookie Betts’ slump and a 29-6 drubbing by Houston haven’t derailed their division dominance—yet their October readiness hinges on a healing roster. (McCullough)
2. Detroit Tigers (58-34)
Preseason/Current Odds: 46.0% → 99.6%
Baseball’s surprise juggernaut, Detroit rides Tarik Skubal’s Cy Young-caliber arm and Javier Báez’s resurgent bat. Trey Sweeney’s unexpected power surge and Casey Mize’s breakout season underscore a roster thriving beyond projections. The Tigers now own MLB’s best record, leaving preseason skepticism in the dust. (Flores)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (53-38)
Preseason/Current Odds: 72.4% → 95.8%
Zack Wheeler anchors an inconsistent squad, boasting a 0.53 ERA over his last five starts. Philadelphia’s bullpen and lineup inconsistencies persist, but Wheeler’s dominance—47 strikeouts in 34 innings since June—gives them a puncher’s chance any night. (Britton)
4. Chicago Cubs (54-36)
Preseason/Current Odds: 48.3% → 94.8%
Fueled by Kyle Tucker’s bat and a resurgent Matthew Boyd (2.52 ERA), the Cubs have surged despite minimal contributions from Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. Their top-three offense and fourth-ranked bullpen make them legitimate NL contenders. (Flores)
5. Houston Astros (55-36)
Preseason/Current Odds: 52.3% → 98.1%
The Astros’ midsummer sweep of Los Angeles—outscoring the Dodgers 29-6—signaled their return to form. Veterans like José Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, paired with deadline acquisitions Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, have reignited their AL West reign. (McCullough)
Notable Climbers & Stumblers
- New York Mets (52-39): Survived a 3-14 skid, buoyed by Juan Soto’s All-Star snub campaign and Brandon Nimmo’s 30-HR pace. Odds: 62.4% → 86.6%. (Britton)
- New York Yankees (49-41): Plummeting from 90% division odds to 36%, their 4-12 AL East record since May exposes deepening cracks. (Britton)
- Toronto Blue Jays (53-38): An eight-game win streak propelled them atop the AL East, fueled by resurgent stars Alejandro Kirk and Bo Bichette. Odds: 43.6% → 87.7%. (Britton)
Bubble Watch
- Tampa Bay Rays (49-42): A soft schedule ahead offers hope, but three straight series losses to sub-.500 teams loom large. Odds: 37.7% → 68.8%. (Britton)
- San Diego Padres (48-42): Yu Darvish’s return stabilizes a rotation eyeing Wild Card contention. Odds: 32.9% → 44.7%. (McCullough)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (45-46): A league-worst pitching staff (despite Corbin Burnes’ costly flop) leaves GM Mike Hazen torn between buying or selling. Odds: 60.4% → 18.8%. (McCullough)
Long Shots & Lost Causes
- Atlanta Braves (39-50): Once a 93.4% lock, their 6.3% odds echo 2021’s miracle run—but time is scarce. (Britton)
- Oakland Athletics (37-55): A 16-29 home record in Sacramento’s temporary digs epitomizes a rudderless season. Odds: 12.1% → 0.1%. (McCullough)
- Colorado Rockies (21-70): On pace for historic futility, their 0.0% odds invite gallows humor: “At least we’re not the Rockies.” (Flores)
Featured Photo: Geoff Stellfox / Getty Images
Methodology: Rankings reflect aggregated writer votes. Odds via FanGraphs as of July 7.