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As millions of Texans prepare to head back home from their holiday destinations, how will storms slow down travel? An estimated 9.1 million Texans are expected to travel more than 50 miles for the year-end holidays, according to the AAA Texas.
While some of the busiest travel days have been during the weekend before Christmas, traffic will be congested the weekend before New Year’s Day and many drivers will be getting on the road Thursday to head home. Let’s break down Thursday’s risk for strong storms and discuss timing.
An upper-level area of low atmospheric pressure is expected to cut across the Lone Star State throughout Thursday. This feature has the potential of bringing widespread showers and storms to the Houston metro area, as well as yet another round of strong storms during the afternoon and evening.
The morning weather is likely to be tamer than what we’ll end the day with. Scattered showers are still expected Thursday morning, though they’ll likely be more hit-or-miss. Areas that don’t get rain early on could instead see patchy dense fog that would diminish road visibility to less than a mile.
More storms are expected as the afternoon wears on. A line of thunderstorms is likely to develop along the leading edge of a weak cold front west of Houston by the afternoon. It’s this broken line of storms that could bring the risk of damaging winds of up to 60 mph and even an isolated, brief tornado.
Of course, we as Southeast Texans know that any storm possesses the potential for heavy rain and standing water on local roadways and Thursday’s storms are no different. For most areas, less than an inch of rain is expected with Thursday’s storms.
The weak cold front responsible for Thursday’s storm chances will stall and reverse course through the end of the week. This keeps above-normal temperatures going this weekend, but it also means lingering chances of showers.
The third, and likely weaker, low pressure system is set to arrive Saturday into Sunday. Weekend rain chances will range between 20% to 30%, with Saturday looking like the wetter of the two weekend days. Clouds may finally part ways, allowing us to get a glimpse of sunshine by Sunday.
One certainty for this forecast is that temperatures will be warmer than normal through at least early next week. High temperatures in the 70s may peak into the upper 70s by Monday, ahead of a cold front that global forecast models suggest arrives on New Year’s Eve.
It’s far too soon to talk about specifics with the New Year’s Eve cold front, but early forecast models indicate a dramatic drop in temperatures around Houston by next Wednesday. With plenty of time ahead, plan on keeping tuned into our daily forecasts to find out what the weather will be like as we ring in 2025.
