Following their Week 17 victory over the Jets to clinch the AFC’s No. 2 seed, the Bills head into their regular-season finale against the Patriots with an opportunity to breathe before the playoffs begin. Without any stakes that impact their playoff path, Week 18 presents an opportunity.
When asked about the team’s motivation this weekend in New England, Bills head coach Sean McDermott highlighted two main tenets. The first was to win the game on Sunday. The second is to remain as fresh as possible heading into the playoffs.
Although the first goal is admirable and an effort to keep the team’s edge, the second goal significantly impacts their ability to win the game. The Bills have said they’ll use a mix of some starters and players they want to get a look at this late in the season.
That’s a big topic heading into Week 18, among other potential starting spots to ponder for the playoffs. Here’s our final notebook of the 2024 regular season.
How much to expect from Josh Allen against the Patriots?
The more the Bills have talked this week, the more it has sounded like they are taking a logical approach to who will play and for how long. They value health heading into the playoffs above all else, which could mean this weekend’s roster looks like a preseason lineup. However, the biggest question is how much Josh Allen will play. The short answer is very simple — not much. But how much is not much?
McDermott said this week that they will give Allen the start in the game to continue his consecutive starts streak, which, including playoffs, will stand at 115 after Sunday. But on Monday, McDermott said it would be a “very, very short-lived amount of time.” McDermott is not known to exaggerate, so using a pair of “very’s” to qualify the term “short-lived” makes it a distinct possibility that Allen takes a ceremonial first snap and then leaves the field to allow for backup Mitchell Trubisky to enter the game. Trubisky is expected to play the majority of the afternoon.
However, the Bills may be unable to bring up practice squad quarterback Mike White for the game, given how much they’ll need help at other positions. That does set up the potential for Allen to have to go back in the game should anything happen to Trubisky, but the Bills can always call on an emergency third quarterback from a different position to simply take the snaps and hand off the ball rather than risk their franchise quarterback. No matter what, the emphasis from the team is clear. Allen will not play a significant role in this game.
Eyes emoji on the starting safety job
While Allen’s playing time gets a lot of attention, there could be a relatively massive decision on the line on Sunday. The starting safety position, which has seen up-and-down play this year, might come down to who has the better game this weekend between Damar Hamlin and rookie Cole Bishop. Hamlin has spent the entire season as the starter when healthy, while Bishop has been the top reserve. Bishop all but lost a chance to open the year as the starter when he suffered a summer-long injury that allowed Hamlin to pull ahead in the starting competition. But Bishop has started the last three games for the Bills due to injury and has turned some heads, including an important one. When McDermott was asked about Bishop’s recent performance and whether or not he’d earned an expanded role into the playoffs, the Bills coach did not shut down the idea immediately. Instead, McDermott said, “we’ll see,” and was quite complimentary of how much progress Bishop had made this season.
Hamlin, who has made strides this season, is more susceptible to getting his starting spot taken than Taylor Rapp. Hamlin has been a sound tackler, and he’s gotten better at reading the play and reacting than earlier in the season. Still, Bishop’s overall ceiling is higher due to his athleticism, he gives the Bills more flexibility in play calls because of it, and he’s put together some good games since Hamlin went down with an injury. Plus, Hamlin is a free agent in March, and Bishop is their starting safety of the future. McDermott also mentioned this week that Hamlin would be one of the players they’d like to get on the field Sunday because Hamlin missed the last three games with an injury. Teams don’t often like to have a player lose their job during an injury, though if Bishop continues to show that the Bills can’t take him off the field, nothing should get in the way of their Super Bowl chase.
Cole Bishop has impressed with his performance in the past few games. (Nic Antaya / Getty Images)
What will the majority of the game lineup look like Sunday?
As the Bills treat this game mainly as a chance to get their starters fresh for the playoffs and to evaluate some of the younger players on their roster, the majority of their lineup will look far different than most weeks. Here is a look at what the Bills could do on both offense and defense.
Offense
Trubisky has already been confirmed to play the majority of snaps at quarterback. At running back, Ray Davis seems like the safest bet to see a majority of the work with Ty Johnson sprinkled in, but don’t rule out the Bills subbing in James Cook on some goal-line opportunities to tie and/or break the franchise’s single-season rushing touchdown mark. Cook is one shy of tying the franchise mark. He’s also only 19 rushing yards from hitting 1,000 for a second straight season.
As long as Curtis Samuel is healthy enough to play, he could have one of the highest snap counts of the game at wide receiver. Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman will also likely get some work, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Amari Cooper get a handful of snaps, either. Khalil Shakir might be the one that rests above all else.
Quintin Morris and Reggie Gilliam will likely lead at tight end. The Bills could have the option to rest their entire starting offensive line if they use one of their two practice squad elevations there. At minimum, the offensive line should consist of Ryan Van Demark at left tackle, Alec Anderson at left guard, rookie Sedrick Van Pran-Granger at center and Tylan Grable at right tackle. O’Cyrus Torrence would be the likeliest regular starter to play unless the Bills call someone up.
Defense
The Bills are well-insulated at several defensive positions to push a potential call-up elsewhere. At defensive end, expect to see plenty of rookie Javon Solomon and a combination of Dawuane Smoot and A.J. Epenesa. Given his low snap output from week to week, Von Miller could also be in the mix. The Bills have six defensive tackles on the 53-man roster, so their backup quartet of DeWayne Carter, Austin Johnson, Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson will likely do the heavy lifting. Jefferson can also moonlight at defensive end, as he’s done for a handful of snaps this year.
At linebacker, Terrel Bernard won’t play to rest up his quad injury for the postseason, but it remains to be seen about Matt Milano. Resting Milano is the likeliest bet to allow players like Dorian Williams, Joe Andreessen, and even Edefuan Ulofoshio to get some run with the defense in case the Bills need to turn to them. Nicholas Morrow will be the primary backup to those three. Cam Lewis should be the initial nickel corner at least, and should they shift around some duties later in the game, Ja’Marcus Ingram could also get some playing time there.
At cornerback, Kaiir Elam and Ingram make the most sense to get plenty of early reps, which then could shift to Elam with Brandon Codrington at boundary cornerback if Lewis shifts back to safety and Ingram could switch to nickel. At safety, they’d likely hope to get Hamlin some work with his longer layoff from injury, likely pairing him with Bishop if Hamlin plays. Rapp, as the team’s most secure starting safety, is the most likely to get the afternoon off. Then as the game goes on, Lewis or a practice squad call-up could work in at safety.
The case for and against — practice squad elevations
With the Bills wanting to look at some young players on their roster, here is a quick rundown of players they could consider. Remember, the Bills can only use two elevations for the game.
- QB Mike White — The Bills admitted that it will be difficult to call up White due to a roster crunch at other positions, but didn’t rule it out.
- RB Frank Gore Jr. — He had one call-up earlier in the season when James Cook was injured, but the team may want to get Ray Davis the bulk of the work. Cook also has some season-long markers the Bills may want to hit in the game. That takes Gore out of consideration.
- WR K.J. Hamler — Hamler is the only practice squad receiver with a call-up remaining, as the Bills elevated Jalen Virgil and Tyrell Shavers on three separate occasions, which is the maximum amount for the season. Hamler would get the call if the Bills want to rest Amari Cooper or Curtis Samuel can’t play.
- OL Will Clapp — Clapp spent 11 weeks on the active roster, and part of the benefits of calling up a player is that the player gets a 53-man roster salary for that weekend. The Bills may look elsewhere since he’s a veteran player and has gotten that level of compensation nearly quadruple the standard elevation limit.
- OL Richard Gouraige — Gouraige is an extremely compelling case for a standard elevation, as he could help the Bills give their entire starting offensive line the week off and also has the flexibility to play either guard or tackle. He would enhance their overall versatility should an injury occur to one of their four other backup offensive linemen.
- OL Mike Edwards — Edwards hasn’t been called up once this year, but it’s only his first year on the practice squad, and he is a guard only, which would probably give Gouraige the edge. Gouraige is in his second full year on the practice squad.
- DE Kingsley Jonathan — If the Bills want to give one of Dawuane Smoot, A.J. Epenesa or Von Miller some more rest, Jonathan would be one to consider this weekend. Jonathan is on the shortlist of those to call up.
- DE Casey Toohill — Like Jonathan, the Bills could consider Toohill for another option at defensive end. The only thing working against him is that, like Clapp, Toohill spent the first 15 weeks on the active roster, guaranteeing his full-year 53-man roster salary.
- LB/S Lewis Cine — Cine has one elevation remaining and is a very strong candidate to get called up this weekend. Not only does he give them versatility at two different positions, but they could use him on all phases of special teams to help lighten the workload of some others.
- CB Daequan Hardy — Hardy hasn’t been called up yet this season and could factor into cornerback this weekend. However, the Bills have a lot of healthy cornerbacks and a few different options to use on the 53-man roster already.
- S Kareem Jackson — Jackson is another consideration with one standard elevation remaining, though he may not have as much versatility to offer in this situation as Cine. He remains on the shortlist, however.
- S Micah Hyde — McDermott ruled out Hyde being called up this weekend against the Patriots.
Projected practice squad elevations: OL Richard Gouraige, LB/S Lewis Cine
Projected inactives: WR Amari Cooper, TE Dawson Knox, C Connor McGovern, DE Greg Rousseau, DT DaQuan Jones, LB Terrel Bernard, CB Christian Benford
(Note: All seven are core contributors who do not have any per-game active roster bonuses due.)
Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 17
The primary goal for the Bills will be to keep all their starters healthy this week, which gives the Patriots a terrific opportunity to win. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is expected to play against the Bills this weekend, and working against primarily backups all over the field, there is a legitimate chance the Patriots win this game. Although it may rob the Bills of their first-ever 14-win season, it will be for the greater postseason cause.
(Top photo of Josh Allen: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
