Menon: Despite the prevailing pessimism, I believe the failed Geneva talks and continuing Russian buildup have concentrated minds, opening several diplomatic channels (U.S.-Russia, U.K.-Russia, Germany-Russia, the Russia-NATO Council), improving prospects for diplomacy. So, I expect Putin to wait, assess the results, keep his powder dry, but not rush to invade Ukraine.
McKew: Putin will continue blackmailing us. Even with no attack, there is a new security reality in the region; we are debating things that were not debatable before the escalation. Russia keeps inching their geopolitical vision forward upon the West and it is very possible that we will lose if we do not stand and fight now — we choose shame instead of war, but end up getting both, to borrow from the Churchill quotation.
Talbott: He’ll wait to see what comes from the diplomacy while preparing for a blitz if the talks fail.
Hill: With Putin it’s always important to expect the unexpected. He makes sure that he has a range of options for action and different ways of leveraging a situation to exploit weakness. If all our attention is on Ukraine, then his next move might be somewhere else to throw us off balance and see how we react.
Graham: Putin wants to break the West’s will to resist his security demands by keeping it in a state of nervous tension as it tries to fathom what his next move might be. So far, Putin has used the threat of force deftly to compel the West to engage in talks. Putin will continue down the diplomatic track as long as he feels he is making progress, while continuing his menacing actions in and around Ukraine. You get more out of diplomacy if you have a powerful military force lurking in the background.
Farkas: I do believe that there is an 80 percent chance or higher that he will use his military forces to seize another part of Ukraine. I also am concerned that he will escalate in other parts of the world like Syria.
Galeotti: So far, at least, the Russians seem to feel there is value in continuing the dialogue, so for the moment I anticipate a mix of some moves to ratchet up the pressure — like the recent cyberattacks on Ukraine and the forthcoming naval exercises off Ireland — while seeing what, if anything, they may be able to get from the West.
Getmanchuk: Putin has made himself a hostage of his own strategy, imposing his ultimatum about NATO enlargement and threatening to invade Ukraine. If this is not met by the West (and especially the U.S.), he will be forced to react soon. What kind of reaction it will be, we can only guess.
Frye: As other tools for legitimating his rule — economic performance, foreign policy success, personal charisma, and propaganda — have become less persuasive, Putin has come to rely more heavily on the security services and more moderate elites have been sidelined. As the hawks rule the roost in the Kremlin, it is hard to imagine that the voices of restraint in Moscow will prevail. Because I expect the U.S. to stick with its commitment to NATO’s open door policy, I think it is more likely than not that Putin will significantly expand Russia’s military action inside Ukraine if negotiations stall.
What would surprise people to know about Putin?
Graham: That he is not an evil genius driven by hatred of the West and its values. Rather, in his foreign and domestic policies, he fits well within the traditions of Russian statehood and foreign policy strategy. Located on a vast territory with few formidable physical barriers and a harsh, unforgiving climate, Russia has historically sought security in strict internal control and in pushing its borders as far as possible from its heartland. In strategic terms, Russian expansion is defensive, although it clearly looks offensive and aggressive to those peoples who have been compelled to provide Russia its strategic depth. This is the drama that is playing itself out in Ukraine today.
Hill: Putin was extremely proficient at judo as a young man and competed at the national level. He approaches domestic and international confrontations like a tournament. Even if you don’t win every bout, it’s your overall performance that counts. You don’t have to be the strongest to win and you can intimidate your opponent and gain advantage just by the way you step on the mat and secure your first grip.
Getmanchuk: Russia is the only country in the world whose official narratives portray Ukraine as a military power that is able to create a threat or even attack Russia. In fact, the country in the world that most desperately needs security guarantees today is not Russia, but Ukraine.
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