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Beirut- With the State of Qatar announcing the success of joint mediation efforts with Egypt and the United States between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation), which resulted in reaching an agreement on a humanitarian truce in Gaza strip It will last for 4 days and can be extended. Attention turns to the Lebanese front in the south, where a “mini-war” broke out between… Hizb allah And the Israeli occupation forces along the border between Lebanon and Palestine, occupied since the eighth of last October.
The question arises, both Lebanese and regionally, about the fate of this front that exhausted Israel, and in which Hezbollah played the role of supporting, as it says, the Palestinian resistance.
A Hezbollah source told Al Jazeera, “The party was not part of the negotiations related to the truce and the exchange of prisoners between Hamas and Israel, and that southern Lebanon is a front in support of the Gaza Strip, and if the fighting there stops, it will withdraw to Lebanon, and that Hezbollah will adhere to the truce that was announced if the forces adhere to it.” Israeli occupation”.
The source confirmed that “any Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon, or in Gaza during the truce, will be met with a response from Hezbollah.”
The State of Qatar announces the reaching of a humanitarian truce agreement in Gaza
Doha – November 22, 2023
The State of Qatar announces the success of joint mediation efforts with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which resulted in reaching an agreement for a humanitarian truce. The timing will be announced…
– Qatari Foreign Ministry (@MofaQatar_AR) November 22, 2023
Possible fate
Writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub believes that the truce will be reflected on the Lebanese front as a front of support and pressure, with the aim of imposing an end to the war on the Gaza Strip.
“The mere occurrence of a truce means that the pressure on the Lebanese front will decrease to its lowest level, and it may stop completely, awaiting the resumption of the Israeli war immediately after the end of the truce,” Ayoub told Al Jazeera Net.
He talks about data about Hezbollah’s clarity “in what it informed some mediators that violating the truce in Gaza will make it free from the truce in the north, and that any targeting of Lebanese territory will inevitably be met with a response regardless of the considerations of the truce.”
In turn, writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi – close to Hezbollah – believes that the fate of the Lebanese front is in Israel’s hands, as if it does not initiate fire, the truce will automatically cool the southern front.
Coinciding with the announcement of the truce, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and the Deputy Chairman of Hamas met Khalil Al-Hayya The leader of the movement, Osama Hamdan, set a framework for “stressing the importance of continuing work and coordination until achieving the promised victory.” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is also currently landing in Beirut, who is meeting with Nasrallah and Lebanese and Palestinian officials.
Here, Wassim Bazzi includes these meetings, within the framework of coordinating a single and comprehensive approach to the Gaza war and the supporting fronts. He told Al Jazeera Net, “This movement is a reflection of the decisive hours before the truce, and is evidence that there is an integrated rhythm between the fronts in which Gaza is the main spearhead.”
The spokesman says that the Qatari mediation is complemented by continuous and open communication with Iran and with Hezbollah as well.
Objectives of the truce
Accordingly, Wassim Bazzi finds that the first scene resulting from the armistice agreement was Israel’s failure to achieve its declared goals for many reasons, most notably:
- Israel’s inability to achieve its goals in the Gaza Strip.
- The resilience of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades in confrontation and confrontation.
- Pressure from the families of Israeli prisoners.
- The supporting role of the Lebanese Front.
- The Yemeni and Iraqi role has escalated in the confrontation against Tel Aviv and Washington behind it.
As for Hussein Ayoub, he details the achievements of the truce as follows:
- Politically, the mere fact that Israel accepts the truce, it recognizes a party that it wants to crush and eliminate, and this is the first achievement of the Palestinian resistance. From day one, Israel refused to respond for 45 days to all those demanding a truce, and therefore its mere approval of a truce that it does not want and fears its repercussions is also a victory for the resistance.
From day one, Israel considers the issue of prisoners to be marginal and non-essential, and that the goal is to eliminate Hamas. Some right-wingers have even adopted the “Hannibal” doctrine, which states that a dead soldier is better than a captured soldier.
Consequently, some of them said, “The lives of the prisoners are not more precious than the lives of the Israeli soldiers who were killed on October 7 last year and in battles for a month and a half. - The truce will allow the international press to learn about the extent of the Israeli massacres and some hidden chapters of the war of extermination in the Gaza Strip over the days of the truce.
- The truce will allow the people of northern and southern Gaza to catch their breath after a war that is the longest in the history of their wars with Israel, and which is likely to continue for months after the end of the truce.
- Securing the movement of people between the north and the south, back and forth, without Israel’s ability to control the safe corridors in the middle of the Strip.
- Confirming the resistance’s boldness by releasing its prisoners, despite the conditions of siege and security considerations surrounding the resistance. International and Arab aid is transferred to northern Gaza for the first time and fuel is allowed to enter.
Objectives of the Lebanese Front
From the start of the war until the announcement of the truce date, the Lebanese Front, in the opinion of Wassim Bazzi, achieved several goals, the most prominent of which is that Hezbollah tested how to confront Israel with such depth and the tools it developed after the July 2006 war.
For his part, Hussein Ayoub believes that the most important goal achieved by Hezbollah is that it put Israel in the north in a state of war instead of occupation, after the rules of engagement in place since 2006 fell, and pushed towards new rules whose geography no one can control, from the south of the river to its north, all the way to northern Syria. And its south.
Ayoub says, “Israel is depleted with the dead and wounded of its soldiers and the continued displacement of about 70,000 settlers from the north to the center, in addition to Israel’s transition from a state of attack to a state of defense. This is the first time in the history of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict that Israel is in this position, and this point “Very important.”
He adds that Lebanon has more than 100 kilometers from Naqoura to the Shebaa Farms, in which 3 Israeli combat teams are moving, and they are not in reserve. In addition, “the number of enemy deaths in the north is increasing significantly, and the number has reached about 27 dead and 136 wounded since the seventh of last October until the tenth of this November, while the number of casualties in the last ten days alone has reached about 50 casualties, including one dead and one wounded.”
Ayoub adds that the Israeli army has so far lost about 60% of its information and intelligence capabilities on the northern front after the resistance carried out concentrated and successive bombardments on its positions and technical equipment.
The fate of the truce
In Lebanon, as in Gaza, the question arises about the day following the end of the truce, because the fate of the Strip also determines the fate of the front between Hezbollah and the occupation forces.
Therefore, Wassim Bazzi believes that entering into a first truce will take away the momentum of the Israeli operation and undermine its narrative, which was based on a refusal to negotiate, “which means that Israel, and behind it Washington, will come down from the tree.”
He says, “We are facing a test truce that may lead to other truces, after everyone realizes that Israel is unable to achieve its goals, in exchange for the resistance continuing to engage in confrontation through defense, confrontation, and steadfastness.”
Hussein Ayoub disagrees with him, ruling out that the truce will pave the way for stopping the Israeli war, and he fears that “the next round will be more destructive and brutal from the Israeli side, such that it wants to tell the Palestinians that if they can breathe with the truce they will pay the price as soon as it ends with massacres and extermination.”
