Humanitarian truces are a break for warriors or a prelude to a ceasefire? | Opinions

Israel resumed its attacks on the Gaza Strip, north and south, after seven days of humanitarian truces, during which it exchanged a number of women and minors with the Palestinian resistance at a ratio of three to one.

However, the occupation reiterated that it is ready for an additional truce, which it set for one day, while the resistance still shows its willingness to resume it, which means that these truces may be repeated.

The mediators – Qatar and Egypt – are still working in coordination with the United States to reach new truce agreements between the two parties, after Hamas confirmed its willingness to include new truces and rejected an Israeli offer to launch female recruits into the occupation army.

What are the implications of these truces, and did they create a breakthrough in the occupation’s logic and approach to war? Do these truces constitute an opportunity to reach a ceasefire agreement in the coming days or weeks?

Meanings of truces

Perhaps the most important meaning of this mechanism is that the occupation cannot continue its war on Gaza indefinitely, and that international restrictions on excessive force will continue to operate regardless of the progress or development of the war, in addition to the entitlements of the failure of the Israeli military force to achieve achievements or restore dignity. The permissible entity in the attacks of last October 7.

The occupation considered that it was waging a new war of independence – like the one waged by its founding gangs in 1948 – and harnessed all its available conventional military power to it, while one of its government ministers threatened to use nuclear weapons against Gaza!

Despite all the mobilization and mobilization carried out by the occupation in Gaza, and its implementation of many hideous massacres against civilians – which led to the martyrdom of more than 15 thousand Palestinians, thousands of injuries, the displacement and displacement of hundreds of thousands, and the destruction of a large part of the Gaza Strip, leveling it to the ground – this did not happen. It achieves what he wanted so far.

At the same time, the occupation forces suffered heavy losses in lives and equipment, even though they had not yet entered the cities and high-density areas in northern and southern Gaza.

The occupation only acknowledged the death of approximately 80 of its soldiers, but Haaretz newspaper, quoting a military spokesman, revealed that 1,000 were wounded, including 202 in critical condition.

As for the resistance, it documented on video the destruction of a large number of vehicles, including armored vehicles and personnel carriers, and the killing and wounding of those inside them, which makes it likely that the occupation resorted to concealing its losses.

The exodus of settlers around Gaza, estimated at thousands, continued, increasing the costs borne by the occupation in this war, in addition to its citizens in the settlements and in the main cities continuing to feel threatened by the resistance’s missiles.

It is noteworthy that Hamas offered – before the start of the ground war at the end of last October – to release the civilians in its possession for free, but the occupation insisted on continuing its ground campaign, and deliberately procrastinated in responding to the American demand for a humanitarian truce, in the hope that it would achieve an image of victory that it would show to its people before going to stand-offs. from this type.

The occupation has failed to achieve any achievement on the ground, such as arresting or liquidating the leaders of the resistance, or seizing its tunnels spread across the Gaza Strip, or paralyzing the resistance’s ability to target its vehicles, tanks, and soldiers. Rather, the resistance’s missiles were launched against the occupation cities and the Gaza envelope among others. Convoys of tanks and armored vehicles, proving the failure of the ground campaign in achieving its goals.

Despite the unlimited support that the United States provided to Israel, it failed to achieve its two declared goals: defeating and eliminating Hamas, and liberating prisoners held by the Palestinian resistance.

However, with the continuation of the horrific images of attacks on civilians, and the weakness and falsehood of the occupation’s narratives in justifying the targeting of hospitals and schools, the image of the entity – and with it the American administration – began to shake, while the Western alliance began to falter in the face of public opinion, which turned against the entity, and resulted in millions of demonstrations in Britain and America are the main supporters of the entity.

Therefore, the American administration benefited from Qatar’s diplomatic efforts and its mediation between Hamas and the Zionist entity to achieve the humanitarian truce agreement, and took advantage of the pressure of the street and the families of detainees on the Netanyahu government, to demand that it deal with this demand, especially after Hamas announced more than once that the Israeli bombing of Gaza had caused the death of its detainees.

Because Hamas realized that the Netanyahu government agreed to humanitarian truces under pressure from reality, it changed its plan to release its detainees for free, to demand the release of 3 women and children from occupation prisons, for every woman or minor it releases. It also succeeded in convincing other factions, such as Jihad, to participate in the deal. And that’s what happened.

There is no doubt that Hamas – as the leadership of the resistance – was very concerned with humanitarian truces, as it was not limited in its options. Although the resistance was not significantly harmed by the occupation’s strikes, these detainees constituted a burden on it, in addition to the human losses and images of devastation and devastation caused by the Israeli bombing that harmed its popular support and its rallying around the resistance.

Therefore, it is obligated to seek to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinians by using the power cards it possesses, to push the Zionist entity to allow the entry of more humanitarian aid and fuel into the besieged Strip, which was included in the humanitarian truce agreement, but nevertheless it remains less than what is required!

Politico newspaper had quoted American officials as saying that President Joe Biden would not soon impose any restrictions on American military aid to Israel, in response to a number of American lawmakers’ request from the White House to link the flow of military aid to Israel to its commitment to international law.

During the exchange operations, the resistance presented a humane image in dealing with the prisoners, and the video clips of them being handed over to the Red Cross showed pictures of sophisticated treatment.

They came up with positive accounts of good treatment during captivity. This will erase the false image that the occupation media has been promoting since last October 7, by showing resistance fighters that they are killing children, beheading them, and raping women.

After more than one story from prisoners appeared in this regard, the occupation deliberately prevented any released detainee from speaking directly in the media.

In addition to 97 Israeli detainees, the resistance released a number of Russian Israelis. To reward Russia for its advanced position, including preventing the condemnation of Hamas in the UN Security Council.

A number of Thai workers were also released, considering that they were not involved in the conflict, and they came to the entity to work. In contrast, approximately three times as many Israelis were released from the occupation prisons, including women and minors, including some Palestinian prisoners from 1948.

War or ceasefire?

Despite the occupation’s desire to achieve an image of victory in Gaza, and its enjoyment of the support of the street thirsty for revenge, there are still opportunities to extend humanitarian truces as both parties need them. However, what is more important is the extent to which these truces can develop into a comprehensive ceasefire? How to reach it?

It must be noted that the atmosphere imposed by the humanitarian truces will create conditions for pressure towards a permanent ceasefire. As for the Israelis who support their government in its war on Gaza, they saw that a portion of their prisoners returned under a truce, and that continuing to do so until a ceasefire will return to them more of the remaining prisoners than the war would.

The US government has become more understanding of the importance of humanitarian truces, as it sent the head of its Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to Doha to negotiate with the Mossad and Egyptian intelligence in the presence of the Qatari government about a possible ceasefire deal.

It also sent messages directly and in the media to the Netanyahu government that it expects a less severe war targeting civilians, which indicates its weariness with the behavior of the extremist government, keeping in mind the growing global anti-war reactions and the negative effects of this on the level of support for US President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party.

Politico newspaper quoted American officials as saying that President Joe Biden will not soon impose any restrictions on American military aid to Israel, in response to a number of American lawmakers’ request from the White House to link the flow of military aid to Israel to its commitment to international law.

However, it is noted that the American position – unreservedly supportive of Israel – is linked to a short period of time, as the timer will begin to run out as the launch of the American election campaign approaches, which the Biden administration wants to enter after achieving success in achieving calm in the region.

The Biden administration also fears the outbreak of a regional war if the Israeli aggression on Gaza continues, in which the United States will become involved.

The American New York Times quoted national security officials as saying that they fear that a miscalculation between Washington and Tehran will lead to a regional conflict, which Washington does not want. Because it will distract it from its focus on China and Russia.

The complexities of the exchange transaction

As long as a ceasefire requires the approval of both parties to the conflict, it is good to remember that the Netanyahu government has become more convinced that it will not be able to end the Hamas movement, as it had threatened. This is evidenced by a number of statements by Israeli officials indicating a retreat from adherence to the goal of ending Hamas, in favor of the goal of weakening its political and military capabilities, leading to indirect negotiations with it over humanitarian truces!

The occupation delegate at a Security Council session in November 2023 confirmed this decline, when he said: “This war could end tomorrow, or even today, if Hamas returns all the hostages and hands over all the terrorists who participated in the October 7 massacre.” “The first is the past. A real truce can be reached that will last for decades. I ask that of Hamas. This is the solution.”

However, the occupation forces are now seeking to achieve any achievement that will bring them down from the tree, such as assassinating figures in the resistance, most notably the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, as the focus on him – in the statements of Netanyahu and his defense minister – is an attempt to show that being able to kill him will constitute a major victory. For Israel and to achieve its goals.

This is despite the fact that all of its previous experiences indicate that it will not be able to achieve its goals by assassinating a symbol of the resistance or even by assassinating all of its leaders, because Hamas is a movement, thought, and broad current rooted in the land, and has followers and supporters throughout the world, and that there are leadership generations that will undoubtedly replace those who are succeeded. Assassinate them.

On the other hand, Hamas’ goal of whitewashing the occupation prisons by exchanging the occupation prisoners for them will not be achieved except with a ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation forces, and the lifting of the siege imposed on them. Although Abu Ubaida, spokesman for the Al-Qassam Brigades, indicated the possibility of releasing the prisoners all at once or in batches, it is not expected that Hamas will be satisfied with the exchange deal and accept the continuation of the occupation and siege, as this contradicts its view of the gains achieved by the attacks of last October 7. .

Therefore, the comprehensive exchange story involves many complications, and it is difficult to predict the formula and circumstances in which it will end, even though the indicators indicate the failure of the Zionist aggression to achieve its goals after nearly two months of its aggression against Gaza, which makes it vulnerable to retreat, concessions, and acceptance of the conditions of resistance, especially with the continuation of The resistance remained steadfast, and the momentum of American and European support for the aggression declined.

The question remains about the conditions that will be included in the ceasefire, and whether or not this will constitute the end of the Israeli occupation of Gaza, and the resulting form of governance in Gaza, and the role of the Palestinian, and perhaps non-Palestinian, parties in it.