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The International Crisis Group published a lengthy report on 10 conflicts to be monitored during 2024. It said that the new year begins with raging wars in… Gaza strip AndSudan AndUkraineWhile diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in all parts of the world fail.
The report indicated that more world leaders are seeking to achieve their goals through military means, and many of them believe that they can escape punishment.
Below we provide a summary of the ten conflicts mentioned in the report:
1- Gaza
The Israeli war on the Gaza Strip that followed Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood,” led by the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation) on the seventh of last October, in moving the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict to a new chapter.
It has become clear, after nearly 3 months, that Israeli military operations will not uproot the Hamas movement, as Israeli leaders claim, and that attempting to do so may eliminate what remains of Gaza after the widespread destruction that befell the Strip.
Overall, it seems that the continuation of the war likely does not mean the beginning of efforts to revive the peace process, as some Western leaders claim, but rather the end of any recognized political path. Never before in the history of this conflict has peace seemed so distant.
2- A possible regional confrontation
No one wants a regional confrontation, no Iran It is not described by its arms in the region, nor United State And Israel. But there are many ways in which the war on Gaza could ignite that confrontation.
Perhaps the most dangerous hotspot in such a situation is the border between Israel andLebanon.
With Iran on the verge of possessing nuclear capability, according to Western estimates, America finds itself faced with two choices: either accept the existence of an arch-nuclear opponent, or try to ward it off by force, and this would lead – almost certainly – to the regional confrontation that Washington wants. Avoid it.
3- Sudan
The war that broke out last April pitted the army and…Rapid Support ForcesSudan is on the verge of collapse. As the specter of genocide looms once again Darfur region In the west of the country, the Rapid Support Forces – responsible for many of the killings, according to human rights reports – may be on the verge of taking over the country.
In this case, more urgent diplomacy is needed. The collapse of Sudan may have repercussions on regions the coastAndHorn of Africa And the Red Sea. The window for a solution is about to close.
4- Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine war has turned into a political “football” in Washington, but what happens on the battlefield will determine Europe’s future security.
If Moscow seizes more Ukrainian territory, parts of… Republics of the Soviet Union The former will be next on the Russian president’s list Vladimir Putin.
The attack, which has driven the army from areas in northeastern Myanmar, and fighting elsewhere pose the biggest threat yet to the junta that seized power nearly three years ago.
The fighting resulted in the internal displacement of more than 2.5 million people, in addition to hundreds of thousands from a minority group Rohingya Muslim women who were expelled by the army in 2017. It is difficult to see the crisis ending anytime soon.
6- Ethiopia
The past year, 2023, began with good news for Ethiopia, but ended it with much to fear. The “brutal” war in the Tigray region (north of the country) was about to end.
Rebels took over Amhara Last August, they briefly attacked towns in their region located in northwestern Ethiopia. The Amhara rebellion is not the only source of headache for the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed; He also faces an entrenched insurgency from nationalists Oromo The center of the country.
With growing mistrust in the troubled relations between… Ethiopia AndEritreaAny clashes that may occur by mistake between the two neighboring countries will carry with them the harbingers of a costly confrontation.
7- The African Sahel region
In 2023, an army overthrew Niger By the president Mohammad Bazoom A close friend of the West, which contributed to strengthening the military’s authority throughout the Sahel region, where two states witnessed Mali AndBurkina FasoIn turn, two military coups.
The wave of coups heralds a new chapter in the crises that the region has been suffering under since 2012 at the very least.
8- Haiti
People hope Haiti That foreign forces led by Kenyan police, scheduled to arrive early in 2024, can tackle the hyper-violent gangs that have torn the country apart over the past few years.
9- Armenia and Azerbaijan
The blitz launched by Azerbaijan in Nagorni KarabakhLast year, the entire population of the disputed territory was displaced Armenia.
The question in the new year is whether Azerbaijan will go further, or whether Armenia will finally find a way to establish peace, with optimism that the talks that began in late 2023 will result in some progress.
10- The United States and China
The two American presidents sought joe biden And Chinese Xi JinpingIn their meeting held last November, they aimed to reset what amounted to a sharp decline in relations between the two countries. But their basic interests still collide in the Asian regionThe Pacific OceanThe elections may be in Taiwan And tensions in South China Sea A test for a breakthrough in relationships.
Perhaps the greatest danger now is the possibility of a clash between Chinese and American aircraft or ships. The Biden administration – especially in this election year – may issue statements that anger Beijing, as anti-China American lawmakers may put on the congressional table bills that conflict with “One China policy“associated with Taiwan.
