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After a relative lull of nearly 5 months, the pace of attacks against US forces in the region rose again during July and August 2024, especially on Ain al-Assad base In the province Anbar Iraq, which has been repeatedly bombed this month.
and announced US Department of Defense (Pentagon) In the mentioned period of time, its forces were exposed to Syria andIraq For repeated attacks, the largest of which was the attack that injured 8 soldiers at the Ain al-Asad base during the first week of August.
The American response to the escalation carried out by Iraqi factions calling themselves “Islamic Resistance in Iraq“By bombing the base rock cliffwhich the factions use as a military base.
Reuters quoted a US official on July 31 confirming that the attack was carried out in “self-defense,” while a statement issued by Popular Mobilization Iraqi forces killed and wounded in US attack on Jurf al-Sakhar sector
Regional context of escalation
The new wave of attacks led by Iraqi factions linked to Iran came in parallel with an escalation in assassinations carried out by Israel Against leaders Hezbollah In the south Lebanon.
The most prominent of these operations was the assassination of Muhammad Ni’mah Nasir, the leader of the Aziz unit within the party, in early July, followed by the assassination of the party’s chief of staff. Fouad Shukr Late in the same month, an airstrike targeted his office in Haret Hreik, southern Lebanon.
The Iraqi factions did not hide their desire to pressure America In order to prevent the expansion of the Israeli attack on southern Lebanon, this was made clear in the statement issued by the “Iraqi Resistance Coordination” in July 2024, which threatened to target American interests in Iraq, Syria and other countries, if Israel launched a war on Lebanon.
In late June 2024, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which is loyal to Hezbollah, leaked information about the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades informing…Al-Nujaba Movementwhich are part of the “Iraqi Resistance Coordination”, the Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Baqer Kani Their readiness to participate in the fighting alongside the Lebanese Hezbollah to repel the Israeli attack.
The leaks came in parallel with Kenny's first visit to Iraq after assuming the duties of Foreign Minister, succeedingHussein Abdollahianwho was killed in the helicopter crash alongside the Iranian president. Ebrahim Raisi In May 2024.
Haniyeh's assassination
Since the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh In the Iranian capital, Tehran, in mid-July, Iranian statements were repeated threatening to respond to the security breach that Tehran was exposed to.
The Iranian threat was followed by the issuance of a statement by the “Coordination of Resistance in Iraq” factions on August 11, in which they vowed not to abide by any restrictions if Iraqi airspace was used to target Iran. The warning came a few days after a meeting of Iraqi, Yemeni and Lebanese factions in Tehran following the assassination of Haniyeh, according to Reuters.
On August 13, Reuters quoted Iranian officials as saying that Tehran and its allies would launch a direct attack on Israel if the ceasefire talks in Gaza failed.
The sources also spoke about the existence of intensive talks between Iran, Western countries and the United States to discuss the possible Iranian response to Israel.
Demands for the withdrawal of US forces
In late June 2024, the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee issued a strongly worded statement prior to the recent attacks on US forces in Iraq, in which it affirmed its readiness to use all means to end what it described as the “US occupation of Iraq and control of security and economic decisions,” announcing its desire to “achieve full sovereignty.”
The position of the Iraqi factions came after several rounds of discussions within a bilateral committee announced by the Iraqi Prime Minister. Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani In January 2024.
This was due to pressure from Iranian-backed factions, which developed into a field escalation against American forces, before entering a truce period since February of the same year to make room for the Iraqi government’s efforts to obtain a timetable for the American withdrawal from Iraq.
The repeated attacks on the Ain al-Assad base in August came after a negotiation session between Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi and Iraqi security officials with the US Department of Defense in Washington in late July.
The session discussed the future of US forces and those affiliated with the international coalition in Iraq, where it became clear that the Iraqi factions supported by Iran were not satisfied with the talks, which media outlets affiliated with the factions described as “talks without results”, and accused Washington of procrastination.
Iran, which considers Iraq an arena of influence, also adopts the demand for the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq. In February 2024, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani confirmed the demands of the Iraqi parliament, which is dominated by the forces of Coordination Framework Close to Tehran, the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, and the Iranian side considered this step necessary to ensure the security and stability of Iraq.
Syrian clans employment
In Syria, tribal forces renewed their attacks on areas under American influence in early August, in parallel with Iraqi-American talks aimed at agreeing on a date for the American withdrawal.
The Washington Institute for Strategic Studies confirmed, in a situation assessment published on August 16, that the tribal forces that attempted to penetrate areas of American influence at the beginning of the aforementioned month are receiving support from the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
These include the “Arab Tribal and Clans Forces” led by Ibrahim al-Hifl, and the “Jazeera Liberation Forces” led by Hashem al-Sattam. The institute also noted that the Iranian-backed attacks last year and currently aim to expel US forces from Iraq and Syria.
The institute's situation assessment recommended that US forces take measures to counter Iran's efforts to inflame tensions in eastern Syria, including changing the way the SDF deals with Arab clans and tribes.
Tribal militias
The International Crisis Group had previously warned, in a report in May 2024, about Iran’s tendency to rely on tribal militias in order to push Washington to reduce its presence in the region, which represents a transit point for Iranian and Iraqi forces supported by Tehran to Syria.
This was confirmed by the US Department of Defense Press Secretary Pat Ryder in February 2024, when he said that Iran wants to remove Washington from the region to implement what it wants without deterrence.
Based on the above, it seems that the escalation against American bases in Syria and Iraq is closer to harsh Iranian messages directed against the American administration, which is making many diplomatic efforts to contain the escalation and prevent matters from slipping into an open war, as American officials repeatedly confirm.
Therefore, it is expected that the escalation will not end and will be repeated according to the course of the negotiations and developments on the ground after the expected Iranian response to the assassination of Haniyeh.
