Japan leaves science fiction in the face of harsh Chinese reality

The dizzying changes in the Pacific can only be explained through science fiction.

This was stated by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during his visit to the ground defense troops in Asaka on November 27.

The “Defense of Japan 2022” white paper casts China as an “unprecedented strategic challenge,” a “competitor” accused of upsetting the region’s geopolitical and military balance and threatening Taiwan as well as the Senkaku Islands.

It is not for less. China’s dismantling of democracy in Hong Kong upended the “one country, two systems” premise that had prevailed in that region for decades. Beijing’s warning was clear: Hong Kong was a brief stopover on the critical route to Taiwan.

Fumio Kishida’s speech represents a reversal of Japan’s security policy since World War II.

“From now on, I will consider all options, including having the ability to attack enemy bases” (Jordan Pouille, Le Monde Diplomatique, Spain edition, March 2023), commented the Japanese prime minister in his speech in Asaka.

Japan will double defense spending and unlock $315 billion in investment over five years, making it the world’s third-highest military budget after the United States and China.

Fumio Kishida concluded: “The security situation around Japan is changing at an unprecedented rate. Things that were only seen in science fiction novels have become our reality.

Japan is preparing for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If this were to happen, the US military bases in Japan (Okinawa and Kyushu) would also be targeted by the Chinese military in case Washington defended Taiwan.

With images taken from satellites, Japan has realized that the Chinese military has carried out training and simulation exercises, in the Gobi desert, of attacks on clones of the US airbase at Kadena, in Okinawa.

From a geopolitical angle, Japan read about China’s reaction to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei on September 1: a Chinese drone was shot down for the first time on Taiwanese territory. Anything else. Five ballistic missiles were launched by Beijing during military exercises near Taiwan that ended in the waters of the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

It seems that drones are in the front line of battle. An asymmetric strategy that helps reduce the number of casualties (the shooting down of an American drone by a Russian plane marks the worst moment in the relationship between the two countries since the end of the cold war).

Japan’s challenges are manifold. As with China, it maintains an open territorial wound with Russia and threats from North Korea.

The Tokyo and Seoul diplomacies have moved quickly to maintain rapprochement since last year. Just yesterday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol arrived in the Japanese capital for a state visit, the most important at this level in 12 years.

The Asian chancelleries present the most intense movements of the present time. It is impossible not to notice the amount of interactions that are happening around the area.

The Japanese prime minister is right when he said that these types of movements only occur in science fiction books.

Twitter: @faustopretelin