Chronic. Joe Biden had two objectives when he arrived at the White House fourteen months ago: internally, the revival of his country’s economy, devastated by the Covid-19 pandemic; and abroad, mastering the Sino-American rivalry, a major geopolitical issue of the 21ste century. But here he is, this Wednesday, March 23, again landing in Brussels. Stubbornly called to order by old Europe, he who only dreams of the Orient and Delaware.
Neither he nor anyone had foreseen the return of war to Europe. The shock is so brutal that in the space of a month, the world found itself in an unstable equilibrium – dangerously unstable. The American president is therefore coming, through this hastily decided tour, to consolidate what can be consolidated in the face of Russia, to avoid the cracks in the transatlantic bloc.
The remarkable unity of the group since the beginning of this crisis is put to the test by the differences between Europeans on the logical continuation of the waves of sanctions already taken: to stop financing Vladimir Putin’s war by buying oil and gas Russians. Some need it less than others, some are more motivated than others. Poland, so close to the Ukrainian front but also on the front line of the refugee front – it has already welcomed nearly 2 million – will be entitled to preferential treatment from the American president: a two-day visit.
chinese torture
We must consolidate because the Russian war, launched a month ago, is taking an uncertain turn. Stunned by the difficulties encountered by this army reputed to be so powerful, Westerners do not know how the conflict will evolve, war of attrition or escalation of urban bombardments, but they know that Europe will find itself shaken even more, when security is already world food is suffering from the crisis. This unstable balance is made more perilous by the real Chinese torture inflicted on them by President Xi Jinping: will he come, or not, to the aid of Vladimir Putin, in the name of their “boundless friendship” decreed in the Sino-Russian declaration of February 4?
The answer to this question can change everything. The United States, faithful to the strategy adopted in this conflict of revealing its intelligence in order to pull the rug out from under the feet of its adversaries, has made it known that Moscow has requested military aid from Beijing. Both Beijing and Moscow have obviously denied it, but such an eventuality, former Australian prime minister and China connoisseur Kevin Rudd noted on Monday, interviewed by the Carnegie think tank, would open the way. “to a whole other world, a binary global structure pitting authoritarian states against liberal democracies, with the two blocs vying for influence over the rest of the world”. If this diagram seems familiar to you, it is not necessarily identical to that of the XXe century: the economic weight of China has nothing to do with that of the USSR. We would be in a completely different configuration.
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