Since the beginning of the battle Al-Aqsa flood Eyes turned to the fronts that could influence their course, and which the Commander-in-Chief of the battalions appealed to Al-Qassam -The military arm of the Islamic Resistance Movement (agitation)- Muhammad Al-Deif To contribute to the battle during his speech on the morning of October 7, 2023.
Perhaps an appeal like this indicates that Al-Qassam is relying on effective intervention from these fronts, which would force the occupation to retreat politically and on the ground and change the balance of power that was pushing at the time towards liquidating the Palestinian cause.
Such reliance may be related to the experience of interaction and widespread contribution to the Saif al-Quds uprising and battle in 2021, in the West Bank and the territories occupied in 1948 and across the Lebanese and Jordanian borders, which the demonstrators crossed since the first days of the war.
However, despite the passage of more than 100 days of war, the participation of these fronts did not rise to the level of raising sufficient fears to deter the occupation from its unprecedented level of crimes against the residents of the Gaza Strip, which calls for extrapolating the backgrounds of this level of interaction, its causes, and the prospects for its development in the near future.
The importance of the Jordanian position
The importance of the Jordanian position stems from political, geographic, and demographic dimensions, as it has the longest borders with occupied Palestine, and Jordanians are also linked by close ties to Palestine, by virtue of history, neighborhood, and intertwined families, and because Millions who are they Refugees from Palestine as a result of the Israeli occupation aggression in 1948 and 1967.
The occupation of the West Bank in 1967 took place in light of its constitutional merger with Jordan, which created a historical responsibility to restore it, which is felt by Jordanians in general, and expressed by successive Jordanian kings, especially with regard to the presence of a special role for them in the custodianship of Al-Aqsa Mosque, which is one of the levers of legitimacy. political to them.
In return, Jordan is bound by a peace treaty with the occupation, and strategic economic agreements, such as the gas import agreement, the qualified industrial zones agreement that includes Israeli-owned factories in Jordan, and an initial agreement to exchange water from the occupation with electricity from Jordan.
In a consideration no less influential on the course of events, the government in Jordan since its inception, according to observers, has bet on a close relationship with the dominant Western country, starting with the alliance with Britain and then the United States, and it is rare for official behavior to deviate from the requirements of this alliance, as Jordan is politically centered. The Arab “axis of moderation” is part of the group closest to the United States in the region, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Emirates.
connected By agreement Defense cooperation with Washington, which began in March 2021, allows the US army and its allies to use Jordanian lands with wide freedom, and receives military, economic and political support from successive US administrations in exchange for this alliance. The situation is similar to his relations with influential and large European countries such as Britain, Germany, and France.
Contradictory positions
As a result of these conflicting considerations, the escalation of the conflict between the occupation and any party in the region constitutes a challenge to the government in Jordan, due to the contradiction in the position of the people on the one hand, and the position of the most important external ally, which is the United States, which prompts it to work to calm the pace of conflicts whenever it finds a way, and to absorb the anger of the people. The street took political and media steps that did not deviate from the considerations of the alliance with the United States and the limits of what was acceptable to it in its dealings with the occupying state.
However, the increase in extremism in the occupation governments in recent years and their efforts to liquidate the Palestinian issue with its various issues, such as Jerusalem, refugees, and settlement, has increased the cost of the official strategy towards the Palestinian issue and raised its risks to the legitimacy of the government and the prospects for stability, as popular refusal to maintain a state of peace and economic cooperation with the occupation is growing. It uses the economic, political, and security gains of this peace to oppress the Palestinians, swallow up their land, and create repulsive conditions aimed at displacing them.
Al-Aqsa Flood Challenge
The Al-Aqsa flood came to raise the level of challenge to the political positioning of the government, due to the state of popular unrest over the unprecedented Israeli massacres in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for the political and economic restrictions associated with the choices that the government made regarding the conflict with the occupying state for decades.
The clarity of the occupation government’s efforts to displace the people of the Gaza Strip to Egypt, and the intentions of parties within it to displace the people of the West Bank to Jordan, also played a role in increasing official Jordanian fears about the consequences of Israeli behavior on the security, political and economic situation of Jordan.
The scenario of pushing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to the borders of Jordan constitutes a nightmare for a ruling institution that has bet on an alliance with the occupying state and its sponsors, and has linked its economy, security, and politics to this alliance, which makes its actual options limited to confront such a threat.
What indicates the sensitivity of the matter is Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh’s statement that “any efforts to push the Palestinians into the Kingdom will constitute an existential threat.”
On the one hand, forcibly preventing these refugees from entering Jordan will create an extremely provocative scene for the Jordanian people, and is a violation of the state’s obligations under international humanitarian law. On the other hand, allowing their entry imposes heavy economic and political burdens, in light of a fragile political and economic situation.
And counting Balance Demographic Among the components of Jordanian society is a very sensitive matter, and contributes to obstructing political and economic reform in Jordan. Israeli and Western proposals regarding settling refugees and establishing an alternative homeland for them in Jordan meet with widespread popular rejection, including influential civilian and military components in the state.
In light of such a “minefield”, Jordan issued sharp media signals regarding the level of Israeli crimes, especially in light of the increasing repercussions of the war in Gaza on the West Bank, as it summoned its ambassador to Tel Aviv and demanded that it not return its ambassador to Amman.
A summit meeting that was supposed to bring together US President Joe Biden with the King of Jordan and the presidents of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority in Amman was cancelled, the day after the Baptist Hospital massacre, in which hundreds of martyrs were killed in the Gaza Strip.
declaration of war
Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh also stated that any attempts or creation of conditions to displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip or the occupied West Bank, Jordan will consider it a declaration of war. This is an unprecedented expression in decades of the relationship between the two parties.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi announced that Jordan will not sign an agreement to exchange energy for water with Tel Aviv in light of the war on the Gaza Strip.
On the relief front, Jordan maintained a field hospital in the northern Gaza Strip, sent another hospital to its south and a third hospital to the West Bank in anticipation of an expected escalation there. He also sent humanitarian aid to Gaza through the Rafah crossing and directly from its territory.
On the other hand, the government did not reconsider any of its agreements with the occupation, despite the issuance of a decision by the House of Representatives in this regard, and the decision regarding the water and energy exchange agreement was limited to postponing its signing, without canceling it or expressing an intention to do so.
On the contrary, the export of vegetables from Jordan to Israel increased in light of the shortage resulting from the decline in the Israeli agricultural sector due to the war, in addition to running a land supply line from the UAE to Israel through the territories of Saudi Arabia and Jordan in light of the Ansar Allah Houthi group preventing Israeli ships from crossing the Strait. Bab al-Mandab. These are two matters for which the government disclaimed its responsibility, linking the first to decisions of the private sector, and the second to agreements on the free passage of goods.
On the security level, efforts have intensified to combat smuggling across the border with Syria, which in the past year has become more inclusive of weapons destined for the West Bank, and it has also revealed many attempts that have been thwarted by the occupation.
Support the resistance
It is clear that positions such as these do not satisfy the Jordanian public, which an opinion poll in Jordan – conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan – showed that it is the Arab people most supportive of the resistance and the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
Since the beginning of the war, the popular movement rejecting the aggression and demanding raising the ceiling on the level of the official response to canceling the peace treaty, supporting the Palestinian resistance, and removing the American forces that are unconstitutionally present on Jordanian soil has not subsided. The agreement under which it exists was not presented to the House of Representatives for approval, contrary to what the Constitution stipulates.
In turn, the security services made great efforts to contain these popular movements, by trying to direct them to areas with low political sensitivity, such as city centers, and removing them from the borders and the embassies of the United States and the occupying power, in addition to arresting hundreds of activists who do not adhere to these policies.
Indeed, these efforts succeeded in limiting the impact of the popular movements and reducing the belief in their effectiveness, especially in light of the weakness and disintegration of the popular forces and their reluctance to do anything that might cause friction with the official position.
However, the public found an opportunity to express itself in the broad response to the calls for a comprehensive strike that Jordan witnessed on December 11, 2023.
Informational expressions
In light of this critical situation for official Jordan, the United States and the occupying state understand the media and political expressions issued by it, as a necessity to calm the street, and they have no significant impact on the course of the war militarily and politically, as there are no official Israeli reactions that match the level of high-level Jordanian statements.
This situation indicates that the occupation’s focus and priority is on Jordan’s continued control of cross-border security and the absence of any change in the political, economic and security agreements with it until the end of its war on the Gaza Strip. In this context, it can be explained that Jordan allowed airdrops to be delivered to its military hospital in the northern Gaza Strip.
However, the Jordanian position and serious concerns about Jordan’s stability are an important motivation for the United States’ reservations about the high level of Israeli escalation in the West Bank, and the efforts of Netanyahu and his government partners to withdraw the two-state solution from the discussion table, which increases the political division within the occupation government and narrows the scope for Netanyahu’s maneuvers. Seeking to prolong and expand the war to protect its political survival.
In conclusion, despite the difficult repercussions of the war in Gaza on Jordan, the major challenges are related to the expansion of the confrontation between the occupation and the Palestinians in the West Bank, which is indicated by the course of events since October 7, 2023. This puts the decision maker in front of a situation in which it is increasingly difficult to make a decision. Positions that can be tolerated by the Jordanian people on the one hand, and accepted by the occupying state and the American states on the other hand.
