Quarterback
Start: Daniel Jones, Giants
Jones is performing at a level that makes him difficult for fantasy managers to bench, even in a challenging matchup against the Rams. He currently leads the league in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, while also ranking ninth in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) and fifth in PFF’s passing grade.
The Giants’ offense has maximized his skill set by utilizing play-action on 38% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Jones has thrived in these situations, averaging 11.2 yards per attempt, which ranks third among qualified quarterbacks. This strategy is poised for success against a Rams defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in both EPA and yards per play allowed against play-action.
Start: Justin Herbert, Chargers
Justin Herbert continues to post elite passing numbers, leading the league with 287 passing yards per game. His volume is secure, as the Chargers lead the NFL in pass rate over expected by a full percentage point. Herbert now faces a Giants defense that ranks 24th in EPA per dropback allowed and has surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Sit: Michael Penix, Falcons
Without significant rushing potential, Penix relies heavily on passing production for fantasy relevance, an area where he has struggled through three games. PFF has graded him as the No. 34 passer, and advanced metrics place him 27th in EPA per dropback and 30th in CPOE. Ranking as the QB29 in fantasy points per game, he is not a viable option, even in Superflex leagues.
Sit: Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott faces a difficult Week 4 scenario. He is up against a formidable Green Bay defense that is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Compounding the issue, he will be without his top wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb, who is expected to miss multiple weeks with a high-ankle sprain. Vegas oddsmakers reflect this concern, giving Dallas a low implied team total of 20.25 points.
Running Back
Start: Cam Skattebo, Giants
With Tyrone Tracy sidelined by a shoulder injury, Cam Skattebo has completed his takeover of the Giants’ backfield. In Week 3, he out-carried Devin Singletary 10-4 and posted season-highs in receiving usage with a 61% route participation rate and a 31% target share. He finished with a rushing line of 10 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown, adding six receptions for 60 yards. His dual-threat ability solidifies his status as a strong RB2 for Week 4.
Start: Jordan Mason, Vikings
Jordan Mason dominated the backfield work for Minnesota before the fourth quarter of the team’s blowout win over the Bengals, handling 17 of the team’s 24 running back carries and running routes on 59% of dropbacks. Now, the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites against the Steelers in Ireland, providing another favorable game script for Minnesota’s newly established workhorse.
Sit: Alvin Kamara, Saints
The winless Saints have struggled to create positive game scripts, and while Kamara’s receiving prowess has typically insulated him from this, his usage in the passing game has plummeted this year. Through three weeks, Kamara has just a 9% target share and is earning a mere 0.1 targets per route run, both of which would be career lows. This drastic falloff in receiving work threatens to push Kamara out of the RB2 ranks entirely.
Sit: Tony Pollard, Titans
The Titans are seven-point road underdogs against the Texans, signaling a difficult game script for Tony Pollard. While he is dominating the workload for Tennessee, it has not translated to significant fantasy production. He has scored only one touchdown and has been a non-factor as a pass-catcher, with his 6% target share ranking 42nd among running backs. Facing a Texans defense ranked 11th in EPA per rush allowed, Pollard is unlikely to find much success.
Wide Receiver
Start: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
Ladd McConkey is positioned for a breakout performance in Week 4. He runs 63% of his routes from the slot, creating a prime matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed more targets and yards to slot receivers than any other team. The Giants also utilize man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league. While McConkey’s numbers against man are down this season, he still leads the Chargers’ starting receivers in both PFF receiving grade (73.4) and yards per route run (1.6) against it.
Start: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
With Mike Evans sidelined due to a hamstring injury and Chris Godwin’s status uncertain, Emeka Egbuka is set to operate as the WR1 for Tampa Bay. Egbuka currently ranks second among all rookies in PFF receiving grade (71.1) and yards per route run (1.8). Though primarily a slot receiver in college, he has excelled on the boundary for the Buccaneers, averaging an impressive 2.3 yards per route run from an outside alignment. With a significant target void in Tampa Bay, Egbuka is a must-start.
Sit: Travis Hunter, Jaguars
Travis Hunter’s declining offensive role significantly hurts his fantasy outlook. After running routes on 82% of dropbacks and earning a 29% target share in Week 1, his route rate fell to 61% in each of the next two games, while his target share cratered to 15% and then 6%. With his defensive snap rate climbing to a season-high 68% and head coach Liam Coen confirming the limited offensive role will continue, the two-way skill set that made him a unique prospect is neutralizing his fantasy value.
Sit: Josh Downs, Colts
Even with Alec Pierce exiting Week 3 with a concussion, the Colts showed little interest in expanding Josh Downs’s role. His route participation remained at a meager 59%, and he earned just three targets. Meanwhile, AD Mitchell saw his weekly route rate more than double, indicating he is the receiver poised for an uptick in volume. Until the Colts view Downs as a full-time player, he remains no more than a WR4 for fantasy purposes.
Tight End
Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
While Dalton Kincaid’s overall route participation (61%) is not elite, his efficiency when on the field is exceptional. Kincaid is being targeted on 23% of his routes and is averaging 2.1 yards per route run. He has been particularly effective against zone coverage, trailing only Tyler Warren in yards per route run versus that scheme. He faces a Saints defense that uses zone coverage at a top-10 rate, and the Bills boast the highest implied team total of the week (31.75).
Start: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys
With CeeDee Lamb injured for much of Week 3, Jake Ferguson became a primary target for Dak Prescott, commanding an incredible 14 targets and a 26% target share. While the Cowboys’ offense may struggle overall without Lamb, Ferguson is poised to benefit from increased volume as Prescott’s underneath option. He does not need to replicate his Week 3 numbers to remain a solid mid-range TE1.
Sit: Brenton Strange, Jaguars
The Jaguars’ offense is heavily focused on its wide receivers, leaving little volume for tight end Brenton Strange. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has funneled more expected fantasy points to his wideouts than any team except the Chargers. As a result, Strange ranks just 16th at his position in expected fantasy points per game and 19th in target share, making him nothing more than a low-end TE2.
Sit: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
A significant decline in key metrics suggests Travis Kelce is no longer an elite fantasy option. His 16% target share ranks 18th among tight ends, and he is being targeted on just 15% of his routes (23rd). Furthermore, his 1.34 yards per route run and 64.1 PFF receiving grade are both career lows. Kelce is simply not earning enough opportunities to justify his place among the top-tier fantasy tight ends.
