(Trends Wide) — In just one week, the leaked draft of the Supreme Court opinion that could overturn Roe v. Wade has transformed American politics.
All major politicians with power in the country, and those who are fighting for it, are faced with sudden, deep and sometimes treacherous questions about abortion before the final ruling of the Supreme Court, which could differ from the draft. Some also see huge political opportunities.
Democratic governors vowed to defend abortion rights against Republican legislatures seeking to ban the procedure, including without exceptions for rape and incest in some cases. National Republican leaders are navigating a new test that could complicate what was expected to be a favorable electoral environment for them.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, for example, offered Democrats an opportunity when he blurted out in an interview with USA Today that it was possible a future Republican-led Senate would vote to ban abortion nationwide. His Republican colleagues in the Senate quickly tried to downplay that comment.
Meanwhile, the current Democratic-led Senate will vote Wednesday on a bill codifying abortion rights. It is expected to fail, as there may not even be enough Democrats in favor to get a simple majority, let alone reach the 60-vote threshold needed to sign most major bills into law. But the vote will be an important symbolic moment that will shape future action on the issue.
“Every American will see where every senator stands,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, said Monday.
This does seem like an enlightening political moment.
Suddenly, the left has an issue to fight over, which could mitigate a political storm for President Joe Biden and other Democrats in November, as they point to national polls showing most Americans support keeping Roe in office. place. The right sees a decades-long political mission to overturn the landmark ruling at the cusp of completion, while some conservatives are pushing to go further with outright bans on the procedure.
Both sides can sense a fundamental shift that could change the country socially and legally, potentially for generations, and could sharpen the already sharp cultural rift between red states and blue states. In places like Texas, the gap could widen between liberal cities and conservative rural areas. However, the people who would be most affected by these changes are often left out of the conversation. Minority women, for example, are likely to bear the brunt of any new legal changes, as they already have worse health care and outcomes.
It’s only been a week since Politico’s story about Judge Samuel Alito’s draft opinion hit the internet. But since then the shockwaves from him have crashed into virtually every state, every legislator and every candidate in 2022.
The reason for this is twofold. First, the legal, social, political, and scientific issues surrounding abortion are emotional. But this new phase of the abortion debate is different. Before Alito’s surprising draft opinion surfaced, questions on the subject were somewhat hypothetical, since many Americans did not see Roe as threatened. Now, depending on the final Supreme Court vote expected in the coming weeks, the federal right to abortion may well be gone.
The ultimate political extortion will take months to unravel. But there is a new political reality.
“It’s heightened people’s awareness that this is not just something that everyone is talking about in the abstract, but could actually happen in states all over the United States,” Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan told Jake Tapper, on Trends Wide on Monday. “I think people are suddenly reminded in some way that [este tema] wasn’t there in the last few months, that their votes have consequences.”
State legislatures suddenly take on even more importance
The practical impact of a Supreme Court decision to strike down Roe v. Wade would return the issue to the state legislatures. That has given this fall’s statewide elections, for legislators and governors, added importance.
Take a state like Pennsylvania, for example, which currently has a Republican-controlled state House and Senate and a limited-term Democratic governor, Tom Wolf. If the GOP wins full control in Harrisburg, it could try to ban access to abortions in the state. Most of the Republican candidates for governor have taken strong positions against abortion. In a gubernatorial debate, state senator Doug Mastriano appeared to compare the fight to abolish abortion to the movement to abolish the slave trade in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, invoking William Wilberforce, a politician Briton who led that movement. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat running for governor, has warned that unless he wins the race, abortion will be illegal in Pennsylvania.
“The next governor will have a bill on his desk that bans abortion. Let me tell you something: Every one of those guys will sign the bill,” Shapiro said, referring to Republicans, in Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Voters in other states face similar choices. In Wisconsin, Democratic Governor Tony Evers, who has vetoed several bills aimed at restricting legal abortion, is running for re-election in a swing state where Republicans control both houses of the legislature. The issue could also play into the US Senate race, where Republican Senator Ron Johnson has high unfavorable ratings. Wisconsin Democrats will be eager to oust younger voters and women who might be motivated by the abortion issue.
In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is also running for re-election, is fighting in court to block implementation of a 1931 state law, which could go back into effect if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade and could make Michigan one of the most restrictive anti-abortion states. These are all examples of campaigns in which Democrats are hoping that the strengthened turnout of voters who care about abortion rights will push them over the edge, despite voter concerns about high gas prices and high inflation in the national context.
But these states also offer a glimpse of an opportunity for Republicans to effect extraordinary change across the country if the supreme court authorizes states to enact their own abortion laws.
Mitch McConnell’s Role in the Court’s Abortion Issue
The Senate Republican leader, along with former President Donald Trump, is primarily responsible for achieving a Supreme Court majority that could overturn Roe v. Wade. Without the Kentucky senator’s blocking of then-President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee ahead of the 2016 election and the swift confirmation of Trump’s pick days before the 2020 election, it’s unlikely a potential anti-abortion majority would exist. in the high court.
McConnell went to great lengths last week to avoid getting caught up in the political uproar, seeking instead to focus on the unprecedented Supreme Court leak. His strategy was that of a leader eager to see where the consequences lay.
But in his USA Today interview, McConnell said “it’s possible” the issue could be resolved in the legislative process in the future. He warned that if he were the majority leader, he would not remove the filibuster requirement, which would likely be necessary to pass an abortion ban. And as long as Biden is president, such a Senate bill would face a certain veto.
Still, McConnell’s comment, which was remarkably direct from such a taciturn leader, may also have given Democrats an opportunity to galvanize their voters by arguing that a Republican-led Senate would ban abortion. A new digital ad from Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, for example, accusing McConnell of mounting a “decades-long crusade to criminalize abortion,” underscores that point.
That’s why Senate Republicans moved quickly to kill the idea, Trends Wide’s Manu Raju, Melanie Zanona and Ted Barrett reported Monday night.
“I don’t think it’s an appropriate issue for Congress to pass a national law,” said Texas Sen. John Cornyn, a member of McConnell’s leadership team.
Even Missouri Conservative Josh Hawley tried to distance himself from the idea. “That would not be my priority from the beginning,” said the Republican senator. “I think it would be better for the states to debate this, allow it to breathe and let Congress act where there is national consensus.”
Asked Monday whether he would put an abortion ban on the Senate floor under a possible Republican majority in the next Congress, McConnell did not respond directly, instead pointing to his comments on the floor where he said he “would never support crushing legislative filibuster.” on this subject or any other”.
“I mean that today,” he told Trends Wide.
But McConnell’s words will live on in countless Democratic campaign ads, even if more immediate legislative changes prompted by a Supreme Court vote to overturn Roe v. Wade that will probably occur in the states. History suggests that Democrats should also take seriously McConnell’s willingness to use the power he amasses.
Are Republicans prepared for the political implications of a potential elimination of abortion?
There were also signs Sunday that while the end of the Roe v. Wade would validate a decades-long conservative campaign, some Republicans are still unprepared for the political fallout.
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, for example, had trouble answering Tapper’s questions, on “State of the Union,” about whether the legal reasoning behind the draft could be used for draconian measures like banning control. of the birth rate
“It’s not something we’ve focused on for a long time,” Reeves told Tapper, in an equivocal response that probably won’t hurt him politically in his dark red state, but is sure to be used by Democrats in his broader campaign.
But Republicans also see an opportunity to use the renewed attention on abortion, specifically in this spring’s primaries. In Georgia, where former Sen. David Perdue is presenting a Trump-backed challenge to the sitting governor, he has called for a special legislative session to enforce the abortion ban if Roe v. Wade, as he tries to woo grassroots voters.
It remains to be seen whether Democrats can use the issue effectively to accelerate their base and weed out enough suburban moderates to keep Georgia’s midterm elections as close as the state was in 2020, when Biden narrowly won them. But Georgia’s candidates, like their counterparts across the country, must grapple with this month’s sudden political twist, even if it is the Supreme Court that ultimately rules on the issue.
(Trends Wide) — In just one week, the leaked draft of the Supreme Court opinion that could overturn Roe v. Wade has transformed American politics.
All major politicians with power in the country, and those who are fighting for it, are faced with sudden, deep and sometimes treacherous questions about abortion before the final ruling of the Supreme Court, which could differ from the draft. Some also see huge political opportunities.
Democratic governors vowed to defend abortion rights against Republican legislatures seeking to ban the procedure, including without exceptions for rape and incest in some cases. National Republican leaders are navigating a new test that could complicate what was expected to be a favorable electoral environment for them.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, for example, offered Democrats an opportunity when he blurted out in an interview with USA Today that it was possible a future Republican-led Senate would vote to ban abortion nationwide. His Republican colleagues in the Senate quickly tried to downplay that comment.
Meanwhile, the current Democratic-led Senate will vote Wednesday on a bill codifying abortion rights. It is expected to fail, as there may not even be enough Democrats in favor to get a simple majority, let alone reach the 60-vote threshold needed to sign most major bills into law. But the vote will be an important symbolic moment that will shape future action on the issue.
“Every American will see where every senator stands,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, said Monday.
This does seem like an enlightening political moment.
Suddenly, the left has an issue to fight over, which could mitigate a political storm for President Joe Biden and other Democrats in November, as they point to national polls showing most Americans support keeping Roe in office. place. The right sees a decades-long political mission to overturn the landmark ruling at the cusp of completion, while some conservatives are pushing to go further with outright bans on the procedure.
Both sides can sense a fundamental shift that could change the country socially and legally, potentially for generations, and could sharpen the already sharp cultural rift between red states and blue states. In places like Texas, the gap could widen between liberal cities and conservative rural areas. However, the people who would be most affected by these changes are often left out of the conversation. Minority women, for example, are likely to bear the brunt of any new legal changes, as they already have worse health care and outcomes.
It’s only been a week since Politico’s story about Judge Samuel Alito’s draft opinion hit the internet. But since then the shockwaves from him have crashed into virtually every state, every legislator and every candidate in 2022.
The reason for this is twofold. First, the legal, social, political, and scientific issues surrounding abortion are emotional. But this new phase of the abortion debate is different. Before Alito’s surprising draft opinion surfaced, questions on the subject were somewhat hypothetical, since many Americans did not see Roe as threatened. Now, depending on the final Supreme Court vote expected in the coming weeks, the federal right to abortion may well be gone.
The ultimate political extortion will take months to unravel. But there is a new political reality.
“It’s heightened people’s awareness that this is not just something that everyone is talking about in the abstract, but could actually happen in states all over the United States,” Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell of Michigan told Jake Tapper, on Trends Wide on Monday. “I think people are suddenly reminded in some way that [este tema] wasn’t there in the last few months, that their votes have consequences.”
State legislatures suddenly take on even more importance
The practical impact of a Supreme Court decision to strike down Roe v. Wade would return the issue to the state legislatures. That has given this fall’s statewide elections, for legislators and governors, added importance.
Take a state like Pennsylvania, for example, which currently has a Republican-controlled state House and Senate and a limited-term Democratic governor, Tom Wolf. If the GOP wins full control in Harrisburg, it could try to ban access to abortions in the state. Most of the Republican candidates for governor have taken strong positions against abortion. In a gubernatorial debate, state senator Doug Mastriano appeared to compare the fight to abolish abortion to the movement to abolish the slave trade in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, invoking William Wilberforce, a politician Briton who led that movement. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat running for governor, has warned that unless he wins the race, abortion will be illegal in Pennsylvania.
“The next governor will have a bill on his desk that bans abortion. Let me tell you something: Every one of those guys will sign the bill,” Shapiro said, referring to Republicans, in Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Voters in other states face similar choices. In Wisconsin, Democratic Governor Tony Evers, who has vetoed several bills aimed at restricting legal abortion, is running for re-election in a swing state where Republicans control both houses of the legislature. The issue could also play into the US Senate race, where Republican Senator Ron Johnson has high unfavorable ratings. Wisconsin Democrats will be eager to oust younger voters and women who might be motivated by the abortion issue.
In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is also running for re-election, is fighting in court to block implementation of a 1931 state law, which could go back into effect if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade and could make Michigan one of the most restrictive anti-abortion states. These are all examples of campaigns in which Democrats are hoping that the strengthened turnout of voters who care about abortion rights will push them over the edge, despite voter concerns about high gas prices and high inflation in the national context.
But these states also offer a glimpse of an opportunity for Republicans to effect extraordinary change across the country if the supreme court authorizes states to enact their own abortion laws.
Mitch McConnell’s Role in the Court’s Abortion Issue
The Senate Republican leader, along with former President Donald Trump, is primarily responsible for achieving a Supreme Court majority that could overturn Roe v. Wade. Without the Kentucky senator’s blocking of then-President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee ahead of the 2016 election and the swift confirmation of Trump’s pick days before the 2020 election, it’s unlikely a potential anti-abortion majority would exist. in the high court.
McConnell went to great lengths last week to avoid getting caught up in the political uproar, seeking instead to focus on the unprecedented Supreme Court leak. His strategy was that of a leader eager to see where the consequences lay.
But in his USA Today interview, McConnell said “it’s possible” the issue could be resolved in the legislative process in the future. He warned that if he were the majority leader, he would not remove the filibuster requirement, which would likely be necessary to pass an abortion ban. And as long as Biden is president, such a Senate bill would face a certain veto.
Still, McConnell’s comment, which was remarkably direct from such a taciturn leader, may also have given Democrats an opportunity to galvanize their voters by arguing that a Republican-led Senate would ban abortion. A new digital ad from Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, for example, accusing McConnell of mounting a “decades-long crusade to criminalize abortion,” underscores that point.
That’s why Senate Republicans moved quickly to kill the idea, Trends Wide’s Manu Raju, Melanie Zanona and Ted Barrett reported Monday night.
“I don’t think it’s an appropriate issue for Congress to pass a national law,” said Texas Sen. John Cornyn, a member of McConnell’s leadership team.
Even Missouri Conservative Josh Hawley tried to distance himself from the idea. “That would not be my priority from the beginning,” said the Republican senator. “I think it would be better for the states to debate this, allow it to breathe and let Congress act where there is national consensus.”
Asked Monday whether he would put an abortion ban on the Senate floor under a possible Republican majority in the next Congress, McConnell did not respond directly, instead pointing to his comments on the floor where he said he “would never support crushing legislative filibuster.” on this subject or any other”.
“I mean that today,” he told Trends Wide.
But McConnell’s words will live on in countless Democratic campaign ads, even if more immediate legislative changes prompted by a Supreme Court vote to overturn Roe v. Wade that will probably occur in the states. History suggests that Democrats should also take seriously McConnell’s willingness to use the power he amasses.
Are Republicans prepared for the political implications of a potential elimination of abortion?
There were also signs Sunday that while the end of the Roe v. Wade would validate a decades-long conservative campaign, some Republicans are still unprepared for the political fallout.
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, for example, had trouble answering Tapper’s questions, on “State of the Union,” about whether the legal reasoning behind the draft could be used for draconian measures like banning control. of the birth rate
“It’s not something we’ve focused on for a long time,” Reeves told Tapper, in an equivocal response that probably won’t hurt him politically in his dark red state, but is sure to be used by Democrats in his broader campaign.
But Republicans also see an opportunity to use the renewed attention on abortion, specifically in this spring’s primaries. In Georgia, where former Sen. David Perdue is presenting a Trump-backed challenge to the sitting governor, he has called for a special legislative session to enforce the abortion ban if Roe v. Wade, as he tries to woo grassroots voters.
It remains to be seen whether Democrats can use the issue effectively to accelerate their base and weed out enough suburban moderates to keep Georgia’s midterm elections as close as the state was in 2020, when Biden narrowly won them. But Georgia’s candidates, like their counterparts across the country, must grapple with this month’s sudden political twist, even if it is the Supreme Court that ultimately rules on the issue.