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Beirut- Israel jumped into a heated phase of escalation on the northern front with Lebanon, following a warplane raid on Sunday, which led to the destruction of a residential square in the border town of Aitaroun, three days after a similar targeting in Aita al-Shaab, in addition to Israeli raids that targeted southern border villages, With heavy flight of its fighters at low altitude, as part of the most violent Israeli operations since the July 2006 war, while the Hizb allah Its operations target focused Israeli military targets.
Israel continued its escalation against Hezbollah on Monday, as the Iron Dome system intercepted 6 missiles from Lebanon towards settlements in the Western Galilee, and bombed the outskirts of the border towns of Zebqin, Yarin, Marwahin, Al-Jebin and Shehin, south of Lebanon.
Perhaps one of the most important indicators of the escalation is Israel’s targeting of Lebanese army positions several times, which led to the death of a corporal, the wounding of about 4 soldiers, and the fall of shells near force positions. UNIFIL South Litani, subject to Resolution 1701.
With the northern Israeli settlements empty of tens of thousands of settlers, as well as the displacement of thousands of civilians from the southern border villages in Lebanon, observers wonder if Israel is seeking to turn these spaces into military buffer zones.
In fact, the Israeli escalation comes in response to the specific operations carried out by Hezbollah, which have caused, since the end of the truce, Gaza strip On December 3, at least 40 were wounded in the occupation army, while military estimates suggest that a greater number of army injuries and deaths occurred, and Israel does not declare its full losses.
Experts believe that Israel is still unable to achieve a military victory against the Islamic Resistance Movement.agitation“, seeks to intensify its operations in southern Lebanon, both quantitatively and qualitatively, to lure Hezbollah into initiating war, in search of a way out of Gaza, especially with the circulation of information that Washington has given it a deadline for its first round of war until the end of this year.
In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, the military expert and head of the Middle East Center for Studies and Research, retired Brigadier General Hisham Jaber, and the writer and political analyst Daoud Rammal, read about the backgrounds and scenarios of the Israeli escalation.
Escalation and enticement
On the ground, Jaber finds that Lebanon is facing a continuing military escalation as long as the war continues in Gaza. The irony, in his opinion, is that Hezbollah is committed to the new rules of engagement after October 7, in terms of area of fire and targeting military bases. Meanwhile, Israel is escalating the quality and objectives of its operations, by targeting the Lebanese army, killing a large number of civilians, and bombing populated areas, while Hezbollah strikes the headquarters of the occupation army after the northern settlements turned into Israeli camps.
He says, “Israel’s strike on a populated neighborhood in Aitaroun is a message that it is ready to repeat the Gaza scenario in Lebanon, especially since the threats of Israeli government leaders to Hezbollah to destroy Lebanon do not stop.”
Rammal also believes that Lebanon is facing a dangerous escalation in the south, which involves an Israeli effort to break the rules of engagement and expand the battle front to an area exceeding 5 kilometers. He says, “Israel is managing the escalation in the south, not Hezbollah, as a reflection of its desire for the northern front to move to more violent levels and with different rules.”
But, what are the reasons for Israel expanding the area of fire and moving from striking open areas to targeting populated villages?
If it were not for the presence of the American fleets at sea, in the opinion of military expert Hisham Jaber, Israel would not have dared to send this threatening message to Hezbollah, which had previously been informed of Washington’s threats that it would fight directly with Israel if it launched a large-scale war against it.
On the other hand, political analyst Daoud Ramal believes that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu The crisis inside Israel, and in Gaza, seeks to blackmail the international community and exploit American support by transferring the confrontation to the northern front with Hezbollah, which will lead to opening a battle with Iran as a way out of the quagmire of the war against Hamas. Consequently, Israel is expected to continue its provocations to change the rules of fire with Hezbollah, and to drag it towards an open confrontation according to Israeli time.
Regarding Hezbollah’s handling of the Israeli escalation, Jaber believes that it is acting with the logic of strong wisdom in terms of not being drawn into what Israel wants, “because whoever initiates the war will be responsible for its results.”
Although the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasr God previously announced the equation of civilian for civilian. Rimal believes that he avoids striking civilian settlers, and that he did not implement reciprocity, as he did not target populated areas as Israel did. The writer considers that Hezbollah’s gain in this context created a fait accompli in the Galilee, without anyone entering. A fighter towards him, in addition to gouging out Israel’s eyes by destroying all spying and surveillance systems, which prompted it to rely on satellites and drones to monitor and track Hezbollah centers and elements.
Rimal also talks about the high economic price for Israel, as the northern settlements are a storehouse of agricultural production, and there are factories for manufacturing, packaging, and supply.
Escalation scenarios
Many wonder whether the military operations in southern Lebanon will remain at a controlled escalation pace or will drag Hezbollah and Israel towards war.
Here, Jaber says, “Hezbollah will not be drawn into opening the broad front for internal and regional reasons, and because Iran has no interest in getting involved in a front in which Washington will be an active party, and that the latter also has no interest in igniting a new hotbed at the gates of the American elections.”
He added, “The two major players, Iran and America, do not want a war in Lebanon, which makes any improvised Israeli escalation risky.” It is likely that what Netanyahu wants is a consolation prize in Gaza in exchange for reducing the risk of sliding into war on the Lebanon front. The prize, for example, is for northern Gaza to be demilitarized and free of Qassam elements, “because he fears Israeli internal accountability, and because his political future is at stake, and he will not leave without A victory he offers to his people.”
For his part, Rimal recalls international messages that arrived in Lebanon through the movement of American and European delegations, especially the French, after the visit of two security delegations to Lebanon, the first headed by the head of French intelligence, Bernard Emier, and his work team, and the second, a security delegation that toured the Lebanese leaders publicly. He says, “They conveyed the international community’s desire not to expand the war in Lebanon.”
However, if Netanyahu does not achieve a qualitative achievement in Gaza, there is a real fear, according to Rimal, that he will risk igniting the Lebanon front to reverse regional realities, because it will lead to major military developments, the activation of the Yemeni front, and the movement of the Syrian Golan front that has been silent until now.
Rimal continues that this possible scenario leads to a regional war, and “it becomes… Security Council The international community then faces difficult choices, in terms of how to stop hostilities, and in terms of finding a political settlement that includes all parties that will refuse defeat.
