Liberals vs Conservatives | The Economist

The history of Mexico in the 19th century was marked by the struggle between conservatives and liberals that led to the Reform wars and the French intervention, with the final victory always for the liberals. Throughout the 20th century there was a similar confrontation between the revolutionary liberals (PRI) and conservative thought (PAN).

López Obrador has had the ability to put the entire opposition on the wrong side of history, making it be seen as the conservative right, while he and Morena are seen as liberals who want change for the benefit of the majority.

Although the above is not true, the image of Sí por México as a business initiative and of the PAN as a conservative party puts the opposition on the wrong side. It will not be easy to win in 2024 if the opposition does not remove that label and do something different from what they have done these three years.

The opposition’s discourse has been in defense of the market, the economy and the rule of law, far removed from the demands of the people and as a consequence, López Obrador and Morena have won all the games in the face of the opinion of the majority of the opposition. population. While the opposition’s discourse has been rational and responsible, it has not been popular and convincing for the vast majority of people.

López Obrador continues to maintain a very high level of popularity because people believe him and continue to trust him, criticism of everything he does, without acknowledging anything good, the only thing he has achieved is that all credibility is lost and criticism is rejected in automatically by the majority of the population. On the other hand, since it is only criticized, people do not know of an alternative proposal by the opposition.

Most analysts do not understand why people continue to support him when the country is doing poorly, what they do not realize is that the opinion of ordinary people does not depend on historical and macroeconomic statistical analysis, but on how he is doing every day. In the surveys, people are asked how they are doing against last year and they answer better, because they are better than last year and as a consequence, they are optimistic about the future. Something similar happens in the case of the pandemic, people do not see world statistics and do not blame the government for their sick or dead, but they are grateful for the free vaccination campaign.

If it is difficult to beat a government that is rejected, it is much more difficult to beat one that has the levels of acceptance that López Obrador has.

If we want to win in 2024 we have to radically change the strategy and adopt a discourse that is not just critical and that offers people a better option. Likewise, the opposition has to shed its conservative image and go beyond López Obrador and Morena to the left, with a program that benefits and creates opportunities for the entire population, especially for people living in poverty.

A realistic, inclusive and credible program that resolves in depth the problems of lack of economic growth, employment and poverty that the country has faced in the last 50 years.