Liz Truss and the post-Brexit challenges

Liz Truss is the third woman to be appointed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and leader of the Conservative Party. Although she began as an activist for liberal democracy and even spoke out in favor of abolishing the monarchy, shortly after she joined the Conservative Party, for which she was an MP in the House of Commons in 2010. She was also Minister for the Environment, Justice, International Trade and Foreign Affairs, a portfolio that served as a platform for her to be elected leader of her party.

The challenges that Truss faces are not minor, since Brexit – the exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) – begins to be felt both due to the increase in the cost of living and due to the problems supply and bureaucracy. Inflation is projected at 13% and could probably go as high as 20% in 2023, if energy prices don’t come down, which doesn’t seem feasible at the moment.

It must be remembered that in the referendum of June 23, 2016, the option to leave the EU won with 51.9%. However, Scotland won the bremain (the UK’s permanence in the EU) with 62%, as did Northern Ireland with 55.8%. These results have resulted in social discontent in those countries belonging to the United Kingdom, because, while Scotland wants to hold an independence referendum in October 2023, Northern Ireland could call one on the reunification of the two Irelands, since that is foreseen in the Good Friday Agreements of 1998.

Thus, what is most worrying at the moment is the project to dismantle the Northern Ireland Protocol (a national law with which they intend to invalidate the Protocol agreed with the European Union) promoted by Truss herself. This is a clear violation of international law and the principle of pacta sunt servanda. The Northern Ireland Protocol was designed to avoid a hard border between the two Irelands and prevents the establishment of commodity controls for products originating from Northern Ireland (part of the UK) and entering the Republic of Ireland (a member of the EU). The objective is to maintain the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 that put an end to more than thirty years of bloody struggles.

The Protocol states that Northern Ireland must comply with the legal order of the EU single market. This translates into establishing controls for a series of products coming from England, Scotland and Wales. However, article 16 of the Protocol states that either party may take unilateral safeguard measures in the event that the arrangement “gives rise to serious economic, social or environmental problems that may persist or divert trade.” It also says that, once that article is activated, negotiations must start between the UK and the EU before the safeguard measures are introduced.

If the UK uses the article inappropriately or violates the Withdrawal Agreement with which it agreed to leave the integration process, the EU can resort to the conflict resolution mechanism. In other words, if the UK violates the Protocol, the EU can suspend parts of the Withdrawal Agreement and also parts of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which would imply the imposition of tariffs and a legal and commercial war. In addition, Truss would have to negotiate with Scotland and Northern Ireland, if he does not want an independence referendum to be called in the former or reunification with Ireland in the latter. It looks like Brexit may still make life difficult for Truss and the UK significantly for the foreseeable future.

*The author is a member of the UER Europa+ of the COMEXI. She holds a doctorate in International, European, Economic and Environmental Law from the Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Germany. Researcher at the Faculty of Global Studies of the Universidad Anáhuac México, she belongs to the pro-Europeans of the Delegation of the European Union in Mexico and a member of the SNI level I. Author of the book El brexit: the relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union.