As the government shutdown continues with little sign of a swift resolution, an upcoming deadline involving the U.S. military may compel a political compromise in Washington.
The mid-October paycheck for 1.3 million active-duty service members is emerging as a critical pressure point that lawmakers and the White House may find politically costly to miss.
“We believe the military pay date on Oct. 15 could be an important forcing event for a compromise to restore funding and expect the shutdown to end by mid-October,” Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Alec Phillips stated in a client note.
However, prediction markets indicate that many anticipate a longer stalemate. Polymarket, for instance, reflects a 71% probability that the shutdown will extend past October 14.
While both sides have remained entrenched in the budget dispute, failing to pay military personnel could trigger significant public backlash. Analysts at Goldman suggest this could force at least a temporary funding bill, known as a continuing resolution, to allow the government to resume operations.
If this pressure point is bypassed—for example, if the Department of Defense finds an alternative way to pay troops or if Congress approves funding for that specific issue—few other immediate catalysts for a resolution exist. “If this pressure leads to an alternative outcome… there are few other specific forcing events on the calendar that could lead to a restoration of funding,” the economists wrote.
These observations come amid scant hopes for a breakthrough. The Senate has a vote scheduled for Monday, but observers expect little progress. President Donald Trump has also warned that temporary layoffs resulting from the impasse could become permanent if no agreement is reached.
Other issues could also force Congress to act. The release of key economic data relied upon by policymakers has been suspended, airport delays are a growing possibility if Transportation Security Administration workers do not show up, and most other government services remain closed.
Still, fears of a prolonged shutdown persist. “Concerns over military pay, TSA operations, or delayed mortgage payments for service members could become catalysts for compromise,” noted Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. “While a short-term continuing resolution remains the most likely outcome, we do not rule out the risk of a prolonged shutdown extending until November.”
Other dates to watch include the potential October 13 expiration of Women, Infant, and Children (WIC) benefits, the November 1 start of open enrollment for Obamacare, and the November 21 congressional recess for Thanksgiving, which marks one of the busiest travel periods of the year.
Pimco analysts warned that the situation remains precarious. “Shutdowns are easy, but reopenings are harder,” the firm stated in a note, “and this one… seems particularly intractable, at least for now.”
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