ATP 500 Beijing: First-Round Previews and Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie (H2H: Medvedev leads 4-1)
Daniil Medvedev enters Beijing with a concerning recent record, having lost four of his last five matches, including a tight quarterfinal exit to Wu in Hangzhou last week. However, he has historically excelled at this tournament, reaching the final and semifinals in his two previous appearances.
His opponent, Cameron Norrie, arrives with slightly better form, winning three of his last five encounters despite an early first-round loss to Zhou in Chengdu. Norrie will be looking to improve on his past performances in Beijing, where he has yet to advance beyond the second round in three prior attempts.
While oddsmakers favor Medvedev, his strong 4-1 head-to-head record against Norrie, including a 3-0 advantage on hard courts, strongly supports this view. Despite his recent slump, Medvedev’s proven success in Beijing suggests he is poised for a decisive victory.
Prediction: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 Games Handicap
Corentin Moutet vs. Tallon Griekspoor (H2H: Griekspoor leads 3-0)
Corentin Moutet comes into the tournament in solid form, winning four of his last five matches and reaching the semifinals in Hangzhou. This marks his first time qualifying for the main draw in Beijing, and he will look to continue his positive momentum.
In stark contrast, Tallon Griekspoor is on a six-match losing streak, with his last victory dating back over two months. The Dutchman suffered another first-round exit last week in Chengdu and needs a win to solidify his top-50 ranking. Last year in Beijing, he reached the second round before losing to Alcaraz.
Although bookmakers see this as an evenly matched contest, Griekspoor’s superior ability on hard courts and his dominant 3-0 head-to-head record against Moutet—including two straight-set victories on this surface—give him a significant advantage, despite his poor form.
Prediction: Tallon Griekspoor to Win
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Lorenzo Musetti (H2H: Musetti leads 3-0)
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is looking to find consistency, having lost three of his last five matches, including a narrow three-set defeat to Shevchenko in Chengdu. In his only previous appearance in Beijing last year, he was eliminated in the first round.
Lorenzo Musetti arrives after an impressive run to the final in Chengdu, where he was narrowly defeated by Tabilo. The Italian has won three of his last five matches but will aim to surpass his previous best in Beijing, having never advanced past the second round.
Musetti is the favorite, but his recent physically and emotionally draining final could leave him vulnerable. Mpetshi Perricard’s powerful serve and preference for fast hard courts make him a dangerous opponent capable of keeping the match competitive.
Prediction: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard +2.5 Games Handicap
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
