On Saturday, January 1, epidemiological week 52 of 2021 closed, at which time there were 38,716 new cases of Covid-19 confirmed by the federal government through the platform created by the National Council of Science and Technology (Conacyt) for monitoring. With respect to week 51, there were 17,655 cases, “the data tell us about an increase of 119%”, this is already a figure that should mainly concern the authorities and the population, as it indicates that something is going to happen with the increase in cases, said Dr. Gerardo Mario Ortigoza Capetillo, from the Faculty of Engineering of the Universidad Veracruzana, who has devoted himself together with other specialists to the analysis of trends and possible scenarios for the Covid-19 pandemic.
“We are grouping the data by fourteen and what we observe using algorithms and machine learning, which uses a Gaussian process, is that the data shows a rising, which could already be called a fourth wave.”
He explained that machine learning simply analyzes the data and begins to trace a trend, “they are cold numbers and in that sense the projection would mark us that by mid-February we would be approaching a peak nationwide”, the specialist also pointed out that there will be To be aware of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which in Europe has skyrocketed in the number of cases and in Latin American countries it has also shown a rise. “In European countries it has even had to return to restrictive measures trying to avoid crowding and saturating hospitals.”
This Monday, January 3, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador acknowledged in his morning conference that infections from the Ómicron variant have increased in recent days in the country, however, he clarified that neither hospitalizations nor deaths have increased. According to data from the Ministry of Health, hospitals report an occupation of 14% in general beds and 12% in beds with ventilators.
According to data from Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID), from December 25 to December 31, cases in Mexico went from 42 to 254.
Covid-19 is taking a seasonal behavior
Ortigoza Capetillo assured The Economist It must also be taken into account that Covid-19 is taking a seasonal behavior similar to influenza, that is, the cycles are repeating.
He explained that with world and own data, we understand that every year you will have to be vaccinating for new strains, but something that should not be missed is that when the number of cases increases, the probability that a new strain will emerge increases and a new strain is expected to be less or more friendly, but there is also the possibility that mortality increases and vaccines will not achieve the desired effect. “This is a latent risk.”
Minors are presented as a population at risk
On this observed new trend, he said that it definitely seems that viruses are looking to stay with us, so they find new populations. “Initially with Covid we saw a greater risk in populations older than 60 years, then there were people around 40 to 30 years old, now the minors.”
The United States for example is observing this phenomenon, “children are getting infected.” He said that these two weeks are crucial to relax measures or not, but thinking about vaccinating minors should be a priority if they are going to return to classes, as several states of the Republic have already announced.
Dr. Ortigoza recalled that children under the age of 12 to 14 have not been vaccinated in our country, as there is still no approval from the health and health authorities. “Let’s look at what is happening in the United States, where the vast majority are children who are being infected and hospitalized by Omicron variantWe cannot ignore what happens in other latitudes of the world ”.
He said that if you are already thinking about reinforcement for teachers and you are looking for a date for it, why not add to the minor population and reduce risks?
What can we do as a population?
Although vaccination has played a fundamental role in reducing hospitalizations, the specialist assured that we cannot lower our guard. “As a population we can do something: wear masks, reduce mobility, that is, go out as little as possible, return to small and non-massive meetings; and of course be attentive to reinforcements, go to get vaccinated and not relax about it ”.
He added that the measures have been relaxed, we have green traffic lights, but the growth of cases is in the data, so as citizens we must be alert and responsible. “In general, we already know what we have to do, so that we do not forget because citizen measures have also been fundamental. If we organize ourselves as a society, we can defeat the virus, “he said.
nelly.toche@eleconomista.mx
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