Rating agency analysts Fitch They warned that the budget estimates of economic growth for 2023 that the Government of Mexico at 3%, “it is optimistic and can lead to lower than expected income.”
This overestimation of the capacity that the economy will have to grow next year, may motivate the Government to finish exhausting its financial buffers or even resort to spending cuts to meet the Government’s fiscal deficit objective, which is foreseen in the project of the budget at 3.6% of the GDPthey emphasized.
For the agency’s economists, the Mexican economy will barely achieve a 1.4% advance in 2023 and will have to overcome the risk of a recession in the United States.
In a special analysis, which has no rating impact, they reported that the budget for 2023, presented on September 8 before the Congress of the Union, contemplates a real increase in income of 9.9% compared to that of 2022 and a real increase in spending of 11.6 percent.
The agency’s analysts, led by Carlos Morales, state that this increase in spending contemplates the rise in interest rates as a result of the borrowing costs as well as higher capital expenditure due to higher input costs.
These costs will have to be paid before the elections to be held in July 2024 “since the AMLO administration (President Andrés Manuel López Obrador) seeks to complete its priority infrastructure projects, mainly the Maya and Istmo trains and the Dos Bocas refinery. ”.
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