The military and strategic expert, Brigadier General Elias Hanna, said: Hezbollah He succeeded in restoring his deterrent ability against Israel, creating a strategic shift in the balance of power.
Hanna added – during the military analysis section – that the Israeli air defense system, in particular Iron DomeIt has become unable to provide comprehensive protection for Israel in the face of the new threats posed by Hezbollah.
He explained that “Iron Dome consists of only 10 batteries, and this number is not enough to cover the entire area of Israel,” which forces it to set priorities in protecting major cities, leaving other areas at risk.
Hanna pointed to a qualitative development in Hezbollah's capabilities, especially in the field of drones, and said, “The drones have a different trajectory from traditional missiles, which makes them capable of maneuvering and reaching residential areas without the possibility of being easily intercepted or detected.”
He added that Hezbollah has become able to use new tactics, such as launching rocket salvoes to distract Iron Dome, and then pass the marches.
Political dimensions
In his analysis of Hezbollah's strategy, Hanna explained that the party is following a new pattern of missile bombing and marching attacks.
He also said, “This pattern has become essential, and its goal is to raise the cost on the occupation army and on the Israeli political decision.”
The military expert added that this strategy indicates Hezbollah's military readiness in the area extending from the south of the Litani to the Blue Line.
He touched on the impact of the assassination of Hezbollah leaders on its strategy, saying, “What Hezbollah suffered after the assassination of the Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah An earthquake,” explaining that “the assassination of leaders required time to restore balance and activate command and control.” He added, “Today, we have moved to a new phase as Hezbollah seeks to raise the level of deterrence again.”
The military expert pointed out that the military operations currently being carried out by Hezbollah have political dimensions, and said, “What Hezbollah is doing today is a purely military goal, but in light of these conditions it has a political translation and pressures on the Israeli interior.”
Direct confrontation
On the other hand, Hanna pointed out that Israel is also seeking to rebuild its deterrence capabilities, and said, “Israel today is in an attempt to reinstall a new strategic system, and relies on what is called punitive deterrence against Gaza andSouth Lebanon“.
He added, “Israel's grand strategy is still based on deterrence, but it has lost the element of early warning and its ability to decide quickly.”
Hanna warned of the escalation of direct confrontation between… Iran And Israel, and he said, “When Iran strikes twice with Operations Flood, “The True Promise 1 and 2,” and Israel responds to the first and prepares for the second, “this means that we have become in a direct confrontation.”
The military expert confirmed that he does not expect the occupation army to launch a ground attack against Hezbollah, because that will give the party a strength point. Instead, he predicted there would be a “long process of attrition leading to a political solution.”