With the political space cleared with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden Administration rushes to activate new centers of power in the region that contain Beijing. In this way he confirms the recent warning of Emilio Lamo de Espinosa in his book Between eagles and dragons. The decline of the West (Espasa): “Power is always relational, it is in relation to someone, and therefore it is always a zero-sum game.” In today’s world, in order to maintain its position in the face of the rise of China, Washington needs to weave a network of alliances with like-minded states to help it reestablish the lost balance. And it does so by promoting a new political form with a growing presence in the Indo-Pacific: minilateralism. These are informal cooperation agreements between three and nine countries that, according to political scientists Bhubhindar Singh and Sara Teo, occupying an intermediate area between bilateralism and multilateralism, are more flexible and functional. On the one hand, exclusive platforms that only include countries that are committed and relevant to the issues to be addressed. On the other, alliances that provide a response to the deficits of broad-spectrum multilateralism, in difficulties to exceed the lowest common denominator and to adapt to the speed of change.
Along these lines, on the occasion of the meeting that took place in October between the Foreign Ministers of the United States, Israel, the Arab Emirates and India, the Quad-2 has emerged, a quadrilateral strategic dialogue for cooperation in trade, new technologies and maritime security. Like the recent minilaterals Aukus (Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) and Quad (USA, Australia, Japan and India), the new agreement attempts to modify the regional political map. Unlike the previous formats, the new Quad-2 has Israel and the Emirates, two countries with which China maintains cordial and fruitful relations, key pieces in the infrastructure project of the New Silk Road.
The benefits for the parties are important and lead to the addition of the wealth of the Emirates, the cutting-edge technology of Israel, and the colossal consumption capacity of the Indian market coupled with its productive potential. The latter driven by the initiative Make in India of Modi to attract global manufacturing to the country. Indeed India, which Quad repeats, comes out reinforced from its centrality in the Indo-Pacific against China and Pakistan, rivals united by the economic corridor. At the level of the injured, in addition to them, there would be Iran.
From the rapid formation of the Quad-2, three conclusions can be drawn. First, Biden’s urgency to contain the Chinese expansion. Second, the role of Beijing as a catalyst for groups contrary to its interests. As long as Xi Jinping practices the path of unilateral action in territorial disputes, the minilateral agreements will go ahead. Finally, the competition between the eagle and the dragon is forcing others to choose. Case of the European Union. @Evabor3
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