The situation in Ukraine is turning ant-colored. At this point in the game, neither Biden nor Putin can afford to lose, and meanwhile, the tension of this psychological war is increasing and making the world sleep with one eye open.
Because the possibility of a confrontation between the two countries with the largest nuclear weapons in Ukraine, sets off the alarms of our globe that, beyond considering having to witness mutual self-destruction, would also end up paying for the piper of that meeting by all its corners.
Energy prices would skyrocket and inflation would get worse than it already is. This is how we would all end up feeling this war in our pockets. Because they are the two largest producers of oil and natural gas worldwide. Within what should be underlined Europe’s dependence on Russia.
The world is interconnected and what happens in one place will hardly fail to impact another, no matter how far away it is, and hence the importance of understanding why Russia does not take its eyes off Ukraine and the West defends it.
The first thing is that for historical reasons, Russia feels certain rights over Ukraine. From the 9th to the 13th century, Kievan Rus’ gave its name to a federation of East Slavic tribes that, at their greatest extent in the mid-11th century, stretched from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south and this included both countries. Later, at the end of the 18th century, the Russian empire abolished the autonomy of Ukraine and this would cause the current Ukrainian territory to continue to be distributed in the 20th century. Later, when the current territories were finally consolidated during the era of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev somehow played with the pieces of this puzzle again and transferred the territory of Crimea from Russian hands to Ukrainian hands. Giving in this way, the perfect excuse to Vladimir Putin to annex this territory in 2014, and say that “Crimea returned to its mother port.”
However, beyond all the territorial ups and downs, it seems to me that geopolitics has been the silent language behind the tone of this conflict, and the best way to explain it is through the eyes of Sir Halford Mackinder and his Heartland theory. of the Earth) of 1904.
For him, the Heart of the Earth encompassed the agricultural areas of the European part of Russia, extended over vast territories to Central Asia and reached the forests and plains of Siberia, and was a key area for countries with a thirst for power. . Because from there an indestructible fleet could be built, capable of defeating the British navy and finally dominating Eurasia and Africa and becoming the “Island of the World”.
Summarizing the latter in a kind of mantra that says that “Whoever rules Eastern Europe rules Heartland, who rules Heartland rules the ‘World Island’, who rules the ‘World Island’ rules the entire world.”
Do you already understand why Russia does not take its eyes off Ukraine and the West defends it?
The same applies to NATO.
Meanwhile neither Putin nor Biden can afford to lose because they both know that their credibility is at stake and so is the balance of world power. Without forgetting that all this could be part of a boast by Vladimir Putin to be able to sit at the table to negotiate with superpower status, because the Russian economy definitely could not afford a war or bear the weight of more sanctions.
Last one out turn off the light
Last one out turn off the light
Mexican analyst and commentator. He studied international relations at the Tecnológico de Monterrey CCM and at the Institute of Political Studies of Paris (Sciences-Po). He has a specialty in Russian foreign policy from the MGIMO in Moscow and a master’s degree in Geopolitics, Territory and Security from King’s College London in England.