Tehran- Over the past decades, Western parties have always talked about a “new Middle East” according to their own specifications and that of their ally, Israel, and they have repeated the battle of ““Al-Aqsa Flood” Talking about this project to Iranian circles is based on the ability of wars to change geography and political alignments.
The statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on October 8th, and his pledge to “change the Middle East region” may be the bottom line in the Iranian reading, which was divided regarding the aftermath of the battle.
While Iranian circles agree that the Al-Aqsa Flood operations have already changed the rules of engagement in the occupied territories, a segment believes that the region is facing a “new Sykes-Picot,” while another spectrum holds that foreign projects are no longer able to change the map of the region, and that its people are among the They will chart the features of the new phase in favor of the Palestinian cause.
Global changes
Meanwhile, Mohsen Jalilvand, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, believes that the results of the Gaza battle will go beyond changing the features of the Middle East to leave a prominent mark on the world map, at various geostrategic, geopolitical and geoeconomic levels, similar to the period after September 11, 2001, as is expected to happen. Geocultural changes in the medium term.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the Iranian academic believes that a ground battle over Gaza is necessary to restore Israel’s lost prestige of deterrence, and that its repercussions will be pivotal in delineating the features of the new Middle East during the next few weeks, adding that the upper hand will not go to the Israeli side in the East. The new middle.
Galilund added that the Israeli mentality sees the current developments as a “second Holocaust,” and is actively seeking to exploit them as an excuse to establish its presence in the region, just as it exploited about eight decades ago the first Holocaust to establish its entity on the Palestinian territories.
Iran’s status
He pointed out that Israel enjoys absolute Western support at the current stage, which motivates it to commit massacres to neutralize the danger that threatens the existence of the occupying state, adding that prolonging the period of war will reflect negatively on the Israeli side in the features of the new Middle East, due to its lack of strategic depth and limited resources and wealth, no matter how hard the Western side tries. To bring it from abroad.
Galilund believed that the Israeli entity will not be able to eliminate the Hamas movement, considering the latter the first link to Iranian national security, stressing that the ceasefire at the current stage will mean Iran’s success in drawing up new rules of engagement and completely eliminating Netanyahu’s political project and Zionist extremism against the Palestinians.
The Iranian researcher explained that according to the results of the ground battle over Gaza, Tehran’s position in the new Middle East will vary between a party that has the upper hand, and which the Western side will take into account if the resistance is victorious, and another party against which Western pressures may intensify, and whose influence in the Gaza Strip may be undermined if the outcome is different. .
International competition
The same speaker concluded that many Western and Eastern powers are competing for the Middle East, and want to register their presence and guarantee their interests in the region during the period after the Al-Aqsa flood, describing Russia as the biggest winner of the Gaza battle, explaining that the results of the current war will directly affect the ongoing corridor war. Between Western and Eastern powers, led by China and the United States.
He concluded by saying, “The Gaza war, like other wars, is a continuation of policy through other methods and tools, stressing that all scenarios are possible according to the extent of the American and Iranian sides’ involvement in the war or their ability to keep diplomatic channels open to avoid a comprehensive war.”
In return, he believes Ali Bekdli, Professor of Political Science at Shahid Beheshti University, said that the current battle will not bring about a noticeable change on the map of the Middle East, except for the changes that have continued for more than 7 decades in the occupied Palestinian territories.
New alignments
The Iranian researcher – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – considered that the Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood is unparalleled in the history of the Palestinian issue, due to the extent of the Israeli violence used against the people of Gaza and the achievement that the Palestinian side has achieved in it so far, stressing its ability to restore alignments and the policy of axes in the region.
Bekdali believed that the brunt of the repercussions of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood would be more severe on the Israeli interior and the Likud Party than on the map of the region, explaining that there are persistent Israeli efforts to change the existing reality in the besieged Strip, but the American side is seeking to engineer Israeli violence to prevent things from getting out of hand.
The same researcher ruled out rolling the war ball beyond the borders of Gaza, explaining that despite the real rivalry between Tehran and Washington in the Middle East, the two sides do not want to expand the scope of the war, describing the ongoing conflict in the region as primarily an American-Russian conflict, and that it is in the latter’s interest.
Deterrence theory
For his part, he believes Ali Saqaian, The Iranian diplomat, former Tehran ambassador to Armenia and Brazil, said that the map of the Middle East had actually begun to change with the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, and that “the face of the region after the operation that broke the prestige of the occupation and the myth of its invincible army” will not be the same as before.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the Iranian diplomat reads Western support for Israel in the context of “raising the collapsed morale of the occupying entity and its soldiers who tasted defeat and defeat after experiencing it for the first time during the aggression against southern Lebanon in 2006,” as he put it.
Saqaian believed that the aftershocks of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood would haunt the occupation after it dropped the Israeli theory of deterrence and created a new scene in the Middle East by confining the battle to the internal front of the Israeli enemy, achieving military gains and returning the Palestinian issue to the forefront of the international agenda.
The same diplomat concluded that the features of the East will change after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation changed the rules of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that continued for more than seven decades, which will reflect positively on “ending the occupation” and changing the map of the region.
