As the polls begin to close, here are some terms to know as Election Night continues.
A person leaves a polling place at Brown University hours before polls close in Providence, Rhode Island, on Tuesday. (David Goldman/AP)
Whether your interest in politics is the most staunch or you only get involved every other November to vote, it’s always a good idea to brush up on some of the terms you hear during election season and remember who’s running for election and how Trends Wide evaluates electoral contests.
Here are the answers to some basic questions that many people have.
What is a “changed seat” or “picked up”?
A swapped or picked seat is a seat in the House or Senate that voters take away from one party and entrust to the other. Due to redistricting, nine House seats, including seven new seats in which there are no incumbents and two in which two incumbents face each other, cannot be classified as picked up by either party.
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What is an “incumbent” or “incumbent”?
An “incumbent” or incumbent is a legislator or elected official who is running for re-election.
What is a special election?
When a senator retires, dies, or leaves office before their term is up, the state governor usually appoints a replacement to fill the seat. Afterwards, voters usually have the opportunity to give their opinion, usually in the next federal election. This is how Democratic Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia were first elected in 2020 in special elections and why in 2022 they are both running for a full six-year term.
This year, there are special Senate elections in Oklahoma, where Republican Sen. James Inhofe will resign next year, and in California, where Democratic Sen. Alex Padilla, who was appointed to replace Vice President Kamala Harris, is running both to cover the remainder of Harris’ term (which ends in January) to win the next one.
Members of the House of Representatives cannot be appointed, so when a House seat becomes vacant there must be a special election to fill it. This year, there is a special election in Indiana to fill the last two months of Rep. Jackie Walorski’s term. Walorski died in August.
What is ranked-choice voting?
Several cities and states are experimenting with ways to give voters more access to the political process and potentially depolarize politics. Ranked-Choice Voting is a system in place in most elections in Maine and Alaska, in which voters rank their choices in order of preference rather than choosing a single candidate. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the first place votes, the last candidate is dropped and the second choice of the voters who selected that candidate gets those votes.
This process is repeated until a winner emerges.
What does “vote estimation” mean?
Based on data such as turnout in previous elections, ballot papers cast or requested, and pre-election polls, organizations can anticipate how many votes are expected in a given election. A vote estimate can underestimate or overestimate the actual vote, and the percentage of information can go up or down throughout election night depending on how those estimates are adjusted as analysts evaluate the data in real time. As those estimates consolidate, they can be useful in predicting how many votes remain to be counted.
What does “down the ballot” mean?
The top of the ballot is the vote that the largest number of people in a state will see on their ballot.
In a presidential year, those candidates are at the top of the ballot. The most local election candidates are at the bottom of the ballot. A candidate for the House of Representatives, for example, is below a presidential candidate. A mayoral candidate is below a House candidate.
How can Trends Wide project an election that still has no votes?
This is a task that Trends Wide takes very seriously. Based on previous election results, exit polls, recent opinion polls, early voter turnout, and other factors, it is sometimes possible to see that a particular candidate will win an election. If there is any chance of a change, Trends Wide will refrain from projecting an outcome.
