NFL Week 1 Predictions: Lions Poised for Upset, Raiders to Challenge Patriots

Patriots vs. Raiders

The New England Patriots enter the 2025 season with considerable hype following a productive offseason. The hiring of head coach Mike Vrabel is expected to establish a higher standard after consecutive 4-13 seasons, while key additions in free agency and the draft aim to support second-year quarterback Drake Maye. While the Patriots are favored to win their opener, the game is projected to be close.

Flying under the radar, the Las Vegas Raiders have made similar upgrades. The arrival of head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith provides stability, and the established chemistry between the two from their time in Seattle should benefit an offense featuring new weapons like tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.

A critical factor favoring Las Vegas is an injury to New England’s secondary. All-Pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury, will not play. His absence should create favorable passing opportunities for Smith, making the Raiders a strong pick to cover the spread.

Projected Score: Patriots 23, Raiders 21
The Pick: Raiders +2.5

Steelers vs. Jets

Historical trends favor Pittsburgh, which is 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread in its last four Week 1 road games. Conversely, the Jets have struggled in September since 2017, posting NFL-worst records of 6-20 straight-up and 7-19 against the spread. Despite these statistics, New York is a compelling home underdog.

Significant questions surround the Steelers’ acquisition of 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off the worst statistical season of his career. His late-season resurgence last year was largely due to his connection with Davante Adams, a rapport he has yet to build with Pittsburgh’s receivers. With limited work in the preseason, the offense may struggle to find its rhythm early against a Jets defense familiar with Rodgers from practices over the past few seasons.

While Jets quarterback Justin Fields has limitations as a passer, New York’s defense should be disruptive enough to allow for a run-first, ball-control offensive strategy, paving the way for a potential upset.

Projected Score: Jets 23, Steelers 20
The Pick: Jets +3

Titans vs. Broncos

The Denver Broncos are a team on the rise after an impressive first season from quarterback Bo Nix. With an improved roster, Nix is poised for a strong sophomore campaign. The offense has been bolstered by the additions of tight end Evan Engram and a revamped backfield featuring rookie RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. Defensively, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga join a unit that already ranked in the top three last season.

Denver’s defense has the potential to be the best in the league, presenting a formidable challenge for Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward in his debut. While Ward is expected to improve Tennessee’s outlook long-term, this is a difficult opening matchup. The betting trends also support Denver; the Titans had the NFL’s worst against-the-spread record last season (2-15), while the Broncos were a perfect 8-0 ATS as a favorite.

Projected Score: Broncos 27, Titans 17
The Pick: Broncos -8.5

Cardinals vs. Saints

The New Orleans Saints are coming off a largely uninspiring quarterback competition that saw Spencer Rattler emerge as the starter over rookie Tyler Shough. Rattler’s preseason passer rating of 86.9 was an improvement over his 2024 mark but came against simplified defenses. He struggled significantly last season, going 0-6 as a starter, and could face similar challenges when opponents begin implementing complex schemes.

Arizona, meanwhile, has been a reliable team to back on the road under quarterback Kyler Murray. His career record of 25-12-2 against the spread (.676) on the road is the second-best mark for a starting quarterback since 1970, making the Cardinals a favorable pick in this matchup.

Projected Score: Cardinals 23, Saints 16
The Pick: Cardinals -6.5

Vikings vs. Bears (Monday Night)

The balance of power in the NFC North is in flux, but the Chicago Bears are an intriguing team heading into the season. Quarterback Caleb Williams is now supported by new head coach Ben Johnson and a rebuilt interior offensive line designed to protect him. These upgrades should allow the 2024 No. 1 overall pick to showcase his elite talent, starting in Week 1.

The Minnesota Vikings provide an excellent environment for rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, with elite offensive weapons and a strong coaching staff. However, making him a road favorite in his first NFL start against a divisional rival is a tall order. McCarthy has not played a meaningful game since the College Football Playoff National Championship, and the Vikings have lost their last six road prime-time games.

Projected Score: Bears 24, Vikings 23
The Pick: Bears +1.5

Other Week 1 Predictions

Panthers at Jaguars
Projected Score: Jaguars 27, Panthers 20
The Pick: Jaguars -3.5

Bengals at Browns
Projected Score: Bengals 30, Browns 19
The Pick: Bengals -5.5

Dolphins at Colts
Projected Score: Dolphins 26, Colts 23
The Pick: Dolphins +1

Giants at Commanders
Projected Score: Commanders 30, Giants 20
The Pick: Commanders -6

Buccaneers at Falcons
Projected Score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
The Pick: Buccaneers -1

49ers at Seahawks
Projected Score: Seahawks 24, 49ers 21
The Pick: Seahawks +1.5

Lions at Packers
Projected Score: Lions 27, Packers 23
The Pick: Lions +2.5

Texans at Rams
Projected Score: Rams 23, Texans 21
The Pick: Texans +3

Ravens at Bills
Projected Score: Ravens 27, Bills 24
The Pick: Ravens +1.5

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