I need to adopt a new mediocre-to-poor quarterback. Will Levis erased all the progress he made the last month with four turnovers in Sunday’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals (The Tennessee Titans cover the spread easily if he, say, gives the ball to the Bengals only twice.)
In trying to find some value in picking these games, it’s helpful to find quarterbacks who are not as smelly as the public thinks. Daniel Jones fit that bill for awhile. Geno Smith was underrated until it became obvious he couldn’t beat good teams. Levis and Bryce Young worked well the past month, until Young’s Carolina Panthers were (actually) favored in a game over the Dallas Cowboys, and they both wet the bed Sunday.
So, we need someone new. Anthony Richardson? He’s Tim Tebow without the sermons.
Give me Caleb Williams. And I don’t care that he has the worst body language since kids eating spinach. Williams has taken a lot of shots. And two weeks ago, he became the first quarterback since 1950 to lose six straight starts without throwing an interception. Make that eight straight games now, and he has eight touchdowns and no picks over that span.
He clearly needs an upgrade on the offensive line and with his play caller (again). But you can see the pocket awareness and playmaking ability every now and then. It’s not like we’re asking Williams to win Sunday; just stay within seven points of a banged-up Detroit Lions team that everyone is betting will bounce back after losing to the Buffalo Bills.
My fifth straight winning week may count on it.
Last week’s record: 10-6 against the spread entering MNF, 3-2 on best bets entering MNF.
Season record: 100-122-2 against the spread entering MNF, 31-42-2 on best bets entering MNF.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
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I was ready to fade the Broncos when I heard Pat Surtain II had a bad ankle, but he practiced in full so we shift our focus on the other side where Justin Herbert has a grumpy ankle — and it’s not like the Chargers quarterback has any offensive weapons outside of Ladd McConkey. Herbert used to be able to lean on J.K. Dobbins and the run game, but he’s hurt and the Chargers have ranked last in rush attempts per game (18.0) and 31st in rushing yards per game (66.3) in the past four games starting when he was injured in Week 12 against Baltimore. They have lost three of those games. And the Broncos defense has been the best in the league since Week 11 (with an EPA of 0.22 per play). Nik Bonitto became the first player in 10 years (since J.J. Watt) to have 10-plus sacks and multiple touchdowns in a single season. Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, meanwhile is taking more shots downfield and receivers Marvin Mims Jr. (1.6) and Courtland Sutton (1.5) rank second and third, respectively, in EPA per reception rate in the past five weeks.
The pick: Broncos
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Two struggling offenses meet in what could be a playoff preview. It sure seems like Patrick Mahomes is going to play with a high ankle sprain. He is obviously afraid of Carson Wentz taking his job. The Texans offense ranks last in first downs per drive the past five weeks with a 1.4 average, and they beat the Dolphins on Sunday despite only gaining 181 yards of total offense. Houston running back Joe Mixon is slowing down after a hot start and middle to the season, and that doesn’t bode well for the Texans in this matchup. The Chiefs have more holes than in years past, but they’re more than fine at defensive tackle. Chris Jones had eight QB pressures last week and his 26 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) lead the rest of the defensive tackles by nine. I have heard the argument that the Texans won’t be motivated because they already won their division, but everyone gets up to play the back-to-back champs. The Chiefs will be able to run the ball with or without Mahomes and just find a way to win, and for the second week in a row, cover the spread.
The pick: Chiefs
The Steelers have been a cute story, but they were outclassed by the Eagles last week. Now they get a familiar opponent they already beat once this season. And they might get wide receiver George Pickens back from his hamstring injury. He still hasn’t returned to practice but is doing some side work and Mike Tomlin hasn’t ruled him out. The Ravens are terrible against the pass, but very good at stopping the run. The Steelers also had defensive star T.J. Watt (ankle) get some light work in at Wednesday’s practice, and he is a big reason they have done such a good job of containing Lamar Jackson over the years. If Pickens and Watt play, the Steelers cover the point spread and maybe even win the game for the ninth time in the last 10 meetings. The reason they might not is Jackson has taken his game to another level this season. He has the second-best passer rating through 15 weeks of any quarterback in the past 25 seasons at 120.7. Only Peyton Manning in 2004 (123.9) was better. I still think 6.5 points is too much.
The pick: Steelers
Highlights over the weeks could not fully capture how shot Kirk Cousins was. It took a nationally televised game on “Monday Night Football” for everyone to understand that he can’t move or even step into throws under pressure. So, the Michael Penix Jr. era begins. The draft pick, it turns out, was not as bad as the $100 million guaranteed the Falcons gave Cousins. The Giants are a fun defense to go against. The question is can the Giants score enough points … (quick note: you can ignore this game, while I am contractually obligated to make a pick) … to stay close in this game? Drew Lock is back as the Giants starter, so arm talent, yes, common sense, pocket awareness and ball security, no. The Falcons defense seems to be coming around — it ranks first in havoc rate (25.1 percent), fourth in snap per splash play margin (2.4), fourth in EPA per rush (0.20) and sixth in sacks (14) in the past five weeks, but is last in opposing passer rating at 116.7 over that span. The Falcons are the pick. The Penix boost over a Luck-y cover.
The pick: Falcons
Bet against Josh Allen at your own risk. (Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)
Josh Allen is Superman. Who doesn’t want to lay 14 points with Superman? The Bills have scored 30-plus points in eight straight games, tying four teams for the longest such streak in a single season in NFL history. The Patriots have one really good defensive player in cornerback Christian Gonzalez and that’s it. The Bills defense is nothing special, but the Patriots offensive line is a good notch below that so Drake Maye is going to have a hard time keeping pace with Allen. The public is obviously on the Bills and normally 14 points with such company would scare me off, but I took the Ravens laying 16 points last week and it was a pretty delightful experience.
The pick: Bills
Sucker. Me. You. Anybody talking up the Panthers and Bryce Young last week. Ooof, he was terrible. Two interceptions, two fumbles and a plethora of off-target throws. Worse, you can tell the Cowboys had no fear going against him. I can almost hear Micah Parsons telling his teammates, “This guy isn’t beating us.” Especially when he had to throw and was sacked six times in the second half. The Cardinals do not have a big pass rush, but Baron Browning is making an impact since coming over in a trade with Denver. The linebacker ranks 15th in pressure rate in the last five weeks at 15.4 percent. The wildly inconsistent Cardinals are in the playoff race, ran all over the Patriots last week and the Panthers are a little soft in that regard. … Yeah, there is plenty of room to jump back on the Panthers bandwagon and we’re begrudgingly hopping on — only because my hands wouldn’t work to pick the Cardinals as a road favorite.
The pick: Panthers
The Bears were getting stuffed on Thanksgiving, but then came back to cover the spread against the Lions. Now they get the rematch against a Detroit defense that has lost a lot of players to injury. The last three weeks, the Lions defense ranks 29th in passer rating against (109.8) and 32nd in defensive EPA per play (-0.20). Keenan Allen has been making plays for Williams recently after I accused him of secretly retiring. And the Bears will be able to run the ball a little better with no Alim McNeill in the middle for the Lions. The Bears don’t have much of a run defense and can’t cover tight end Sam LaPorta, so we’re going to need them to score some points. The game being outdoors should slow down Jared Goff and the Lions offense.
The pick: Bears
The Colts were cruising to a victory last week when Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball before scoring a touchdown, and it was the first of a series of unforced errors. Their playoff chances took a big hit with the loss, though it would have been hard to make it the way Anthony Richardson is throwing the ball. Story time: The stats dudes started charting inaccurate throws in 2000. There have been 777 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 250 passes in a season. At 17.7 percent, Richardson comes in at No. 776. But he will be playing Sunday. The Titans’ Levis will not, being benched Wednesday for Mason Rudolph. Does it matter? Nah. The Titans will be able to run the ball better than the Colts, when you look at the defenses, and would have lost by a field goal and covered with Levis, too.
The pick: Titans
See. They told you. Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams was a magical combination in the fourth quarter of the 4-10 Jets’ comeback win over the 3-11 Jaguars. It was Adams’ seventh career game with 150-plus receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns, which trails only Jerry Rice (17) and Tyreek Hill (8). The Jets should really bring both guys back next year now. (Cough.) Decide today, because it’s not a good matchup Sunday. The Rams have good pass rushers who will harass Rodgers, plus they will have the ball most of the game as Kyren Williams should shred a poor Jets run defense. The Rams have leaned on running the football heavily in the past five weeks. They rank third in carries (151). As a result, Los Angeles sits 29th in dropbacks per game (30.6) and attempts per game (28.8) as well as 27th in completions per game (19.0) during the span.
The pick: Rams
Saquon Barkley ran for 148 yards and scored twice the first time these teams met, and since then A.J. Brown had some issues with Jalen Hurts cleared up and DeVonta Smith has returned from injury and is making big plays again. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was dealing with a rib injury in that first matchup, and they scored in the final seconds to make the 26-18 final seem closer than it was. This spread indicates that some people think the Eagles are in for a letdown, but they probably gain an edge facing Daniels a second time. Daniels ranks second in tight window completion percentage at 42.4 percent and he’s fifth in EPA per dropback (0.16), but he ranks 27th in EPA per dropback on the blitz with a -0.13 rate.
The pick: Eagles
The Browns have hopped off the Jameis Winston roller coaster. (Scott Galvin / Imagn Images)
Jameis Winston again flew too close to the sun, throwing ridiculous touchdowns followed by stupefying interceptions, all to the soundtrack of some wild-eyed quotes. He plays football like it’s hot potato and he can beat any team and lose to any team and get benched by any team. Winston ranked 33rd (last) in total QB EPA (-28.3) and 32nd in EPA per dropback (-0.24) in Weeks 13 to 15. The Browns either got tired of the roller coaster or are tanking in boring fashion because it’s hard to believe they have any hope for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns also have a few really good players on defense, but they make too many mistakes and give up a lot of deep passes. Yeah, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are not the ideal opponents.
The pick: Bengals
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You know what’s an odd couple of minutes? When a quarterback goes down with an injury and you wonder for a bit who their backup is. Then they cut to him on the sidelines and you either smile at some old guy still getting a paycheck or you wince when you see what young retread it is. The people at the Westgate Sportsbook in Vegas actually moaned Sunday when they saw it was Sam Howell coming in for Geno Smith. Most of the public had the Seahawks over the Packers in that one and they assumed the fetal position much like Howell does under pressure. The Seahawks are telling Smith his knee is fine and he should play. He actually does well against blitzes (though he has been sacked 15 times in the past five games) and that’s the Vikings’ favorite thing to do. One thing to watch leading up to this game is Sam Darnold may have banged up his thumb against the Bears on Monday. The Vikings have won seven games in a row and have a big game against the Packers on deck, so I am not really hankering to lay three points on the road.
The pick: Seahawks
Aidan O’Connell knows this month may be his last chance to show he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL. That’s why he’s gone from being carted off the field against the Buccaneers 10 days ago to likely starting Sunday against the Jaguars. The Raiders also finally got their running game going a tiny bit late in the season, only to watch running back Sincere McCormick injure his ankle Monday night and be ruled out for the season. They have scored 22 points combined in the last two weeks against some pretty ho-hum defenses, so home-field advantage means nothing.
The pick: Jaguars
This is two teams that have started looking at vacation plans but can’t quite book them yet because they aren’t officially eliminated from playoffs yet. Brock Purdy needs to bounce back from a bad, soggy performance against the Rams or else the 49ers may start to rethink giving him generational wealth. Easy fix. He should throw the ball to George Kittle more. He remains at the top of the tight end position in EPA per reception (1.3) and is second in EPA per reception (0.68). Tua Tagovailoa has his own issues, namely two injured tackles who try to help keep him out of concussion protocol. It’s impossible to know which team has more purpose so we were going to side with the home team … until we saw Calais Campbell say Wednesday that when the Dolphins are eliminated he wants to be cut and sign with a contender.
The pick: 49ers
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Micah Parsons has made the Cowboys somewhat mildly relevant again, as he is destroying blockers (eight pressures and two sacks last week) and would have the Cowboys on a four-game winning streak if not for a bad bounce on a blocked punt that cost them the game against the Bengals. The Cowboys lead the NFL in the past five weeks with 19 sacks. And while Baker Mayfield gets pressured a league-low 24 percent of the time, he will go down as he’s been sacked 33 times. The Cowboys have also gotten quite functional on offense, as Cooper Rush can’t make all the throws but gets rid of the ball quickly (second-fastest at 2.62 seconds) and Rico Dowdle just became the first undrafted player to have three straight 100-yard rushing games since Arian Foster 10 years ago. The Buccaneers are pretty stout against the run, though, so this one will be in Rush’s hands. Or Parsons.
The pick: Cowboys
You can’t fool the wise guys. If you thought there might be some value developing in the point spread because the Saints rallied in garbage time to make their loss to Commanders very close, there wasn’t. It’s sitting there at 14.5. The Saints aren’t good and we don’t know if quarterback Derek Carr is coming back this season, but they’re 3-3 in their last six games and the losses came by a combined nine points. Backup QB Spencer Rattler is not good and all of New Orleans’ best receivers are playing cards in the trainer’s room. The Saints are 0-7 straight up and against the spread against teams with winning records. That doesn’t mean I want to lay 14.5 points and watch the Saints have a backdoor cover like last week, especially with the Packers possibly looking ahead to next week’s game against the Vikings.
The pick: Saints
Best bets: The home dogs are barking and we’re taking the Bears and Cowboys to hang in there against the Lions and Buccaneers, respectively. The Bengals make the Browns miss Jameis Winston, while the Falcons enjoy life with a non-tree quarterback and blow out the Giants. The only road team to make this esteemed list is the Rams, who have a great matchup against the creaky Jets in New Jersey.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Ravens have lost to some bad teams this season, and the Steelers (+6 ATS, +225 on the money line) aren’t shabby.
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
