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Pennsylvania’s Punxsutawney Phil might be the most known weather-predicting groundhog, but a new list is throwing shade on how much his predictions should be trusted. Phil did so poorly that non-living critters are better at forecasting an early spring.
Phil — who with the help of handlers bases his prediction on if he sees his shadow — came in 17th out of 19 critters ranked by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information‘s grading the groundhogs list.
(Want to see how Phil does on Feb. 2, 2025? Watch the festivities from Gobblers Knob on this page Sunday morning.)
Which ‘groundhogs’ are best at Feb. 2 predictions of more winter?
New York’s Staten Island Chuck topped NOAA’s list with an 85% accuracy rate, followed by Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee in second at 80% and Wyoming’s Lander Lil (which isn’t even a living animal) in third at 75%. Phil came in at 17th out of 19 — behind a trio of taxidermied groundhogs — with an accuracy rate of just 35%, NOAA said.
“Although he is not the most accurate seasonal prognosticator, we would be remiss not to honor the longest-running weather-forecasting groundhog in the United States, Punxsutawney Phil,” NOAA wrote. “A beloved national celebrity, legend has it that he has been prophesying when spring would arrive from his burrow on Gobler’s Knob since 1887. How has he lived for so long? The answer is simple… the “groundhog nog” fed to him each fall at Punxsutawney’s annual Groundhog Picnic.”
How do critters qualify for NOAA’s weather-predicting ‘groundhogs’ list?
The list compiled of February 2 weather-predicting critters had some criteria, according to NOAA:
- They must have been prognosticating for at least 20 years.
- They must be active prognosticators as of February 2, 2024.
“These groundhogs — along with a tortoise, whose emergence from his winter brumation (hibernation for reptiles) foretells the coming of Spring, and a Prairie dog statue, whose shadow at sunrise predicts how long it will be until Spring arrives — have been graded and ranked based on their accuracy over the past 20 years, using the March temperature averages for the U.S. each year from 2005 to 2024,” NOAA noted.
Will Phil be right in 2025?
Tune in early on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2025, to see if Phil sees his shadow this year, meaning six more weeks of winter.