Mexican merchandise exports registered a growth of 18.5% year-on-year in 2021, to 494,224.5 million dollars, Inegi reported yesterday.
Conversely, imports from Mexico were 505,715.6 million dollars, an increase of 32.1%, at an annual rate.
Consequently, the country recorded a deficit of 11,491.1 million dollars in its product trade balance, after two years of surpluses caused by falls in imports, which in turn were associated with weak domestic consumption and investment environments.
The Mexican deficit was largely driven by the deficit in the oil balance, which reached a historical maximum of 24,925 million dollars, in an environment where the higher price of oil raised the value of crude oil exports, but did not compensate the increase of the value of imports.
While oil exports totaled 28,925 million dollars, reflecting an increase of 65.4% (the price of the Mexican export mix went from 47.12 to 71.29 dollars per barrel between the first and last business day of 2021), imports grew 71.5 % to 53,851 million dollars.
This was the product of the same increase in crude oil prices, which boosted the price of imported refined products, with which Mexico supplies around two thirds of its national consumption (gasoline, diesel, LP gas, etc.).
Meanwhile, the natural gas crisis in February of last year was also damaged by a winter storm in Texas, which multiplied by several integers the value of the imported molecule, on which Mexico depends largely for electricity generation.
record trading
Thanks to the progress of its trade in both directions, Mexico practically achieved a total trade (imports plus exports) of 1 billion dollars for the first time (999,940.1 million).
Previously, exports showed a strong downward trend, growing 10% in 2018, slowing to 2% in 2019 and plummeting to -9% in 2020, impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
In particular, Mexican exports benefited last year from the fiscal stimuli granted in the United States -its main destination-, from the recent entry into force of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) and from the trade war between United States and China.
On the contrary, its main stumbling block was the global shortage of semiconductor chips, which especially delayed automotive production, whose foreign sales were the only major subdivision with a year-on-year drop in December, of -4.6%, to 12,592.5 million dollars.
All in all, automotive exports grew 13.8% in 2021, to 139,841.6 million dollars.
In sum, non-oil exports were estimated at 465,298.9 million dollars in 2021, an advance of 16.5%; while the oil companies totaled 28,925.6 million, achieving a growth of 65.4 percent.
“We believe that, despite the recent controversies between the United States, Canada, and Mexico over the interpretation of certain T-MEC rules, this treaty will remain the main engine for Mexican exports. Especially if the dialogue tables between the highest trade representatives of each country continue,” said Ricardo Aguilar Abe, an analyst at Invex bank.
Recently, Mexico’s economic activity has shown an upward trend in agriculture, industry and services. The latter sector has some heterogeneity, with recovery lagging in high-touch sectors such as leisure and hospitality, while activity in some other sectors is above pre-pandemic levels.
Within non-oil exports, agricultural exports grew 7.6% in 2021 (19,668.2 million dollars), extractive exports rose 29% (9,554.8 million) and manufacturing increased 16.7% (436,075.9 million).
In December 2021 and with series adjusted for seasonality, total merchandise exports reported a monthly decline of 0.10%, which was derived from the combination of a contraction of 8.05% in oil exports and a growth of 0.43% in exports. not oil.
Going forward, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts that the Mexican economy will expand 3.3% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, after growing 5.9% in 2021. Its projection includes that Mexican exports will continue to benefit from the strong recovery of the United States.
Regarding the composition of imports in 2021, those of consumer goods grew 34.9% (62,017.6 million dollars), those of intermediate goods climbed 32.7% (403,163.7 million) and those of capital goods were higher by 21.8% (40,534.3 millions).
With series adjusted for seasonality, total imports showed a monthly advance of 4.86% in December, as a result of increases of 4.72% in non-oil imports and 5.99% in oil imports.
By 2022, Invex estimates a deficit close to 15,000 million dollars. “The growth of both exports and imports should slow down, as well as that of other variables that are beginning to lose momentum after the important recovery process that was observed after the initial blow of the pandemic,” Ricardo Aguilar pointed out.
roberto.morales@eleconomista.mx