Opportunities towards COP27 in Egypt

In early November, the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Egypt. This meeting will follow up on the commitments announced just a year ago during the emblematic COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland.

With the maelstrom of news that announces international instability all the time, in addition to the real possibility that the United States and China – the two largest engines of the world economy – will enter a recession, it would seem that the issue of climate change has become background. These events also raise doubts about whether Egypt will be able to build on the results of COP26, before some tragedy caused by climate change makes this task urgent for us.

Sadly, that tragedy may not be far off. COP27 will take place in the midst of severe weather events: fires in southern Europe, floods in Pakistan and record temperatures in the United States. The costs associated with these events will amount to billions of dollars, in addition to displacing a significant number of people from their places of origin.

Despite the urgency and obviousness of these problems, COP27 will compete with other world priorities, and the decision will not be easy. First, although the pandemic significantly reduced emissions during 2020, they rebounded as economic activities resumed – in fact, emissions in 2021 increased to the highest historical levels. Additionally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered energy prices, including natural gas, which has forced the use of less environmentally friendly energy sources; winter in the western hemisphere will undoubtedly see an increase in the consumption of coal and wood.

Third, environmental commitments cost money. Although developed countries can dedicate enormous amounts of resources to the energy transition as part of the fiscal stimulus packages they have implemented, these same countries have not fulfilled the commitment to finance the energy transition in the least developed countries. Without these resources, it is difficult for developing countries to advance in reducing emissions, not only because they cannot finance the technology for said transition, but also because the limited fiscal resources that they do have are used for other equally urgent needs. such as health and nutrition.

Although it does not seem to be on the agenda for discussions, a conversation that will surely take place in the corridors of COP27 will be the way in which the fight against climate change could easily lead to trade protectionism in disguise: both in Europe and in the United States, as well as in In other developed countries such as Canada and Australia, there is debate about whether import taxes should be established on products that are manufactured with a high carbon footprint. Although the idea sounds noble, even desirable, we must not forget that if these schemes were to be implemented, poor countries would be the most affected, since they would be deprived of significant economic income.

So what can we expect from COP27 in Egypt? Realistically, it seems to me that the best thing that could happen is that as a result of this summit the focus of attention – and the axis of future activities – will be directed at what the developing world needs, mainly financing. These countries are the ones that most strongly feel the negative effects of global warming, even though they are the ones that contribute the least emissions.

Additionally, it would be a great success if more countries (including Mexico) updated their original reduction targets, although this is unlikely. As of this writing, only a few countries have announced further reduction commitments, which is still insufficient to lower the world’s average temperature according to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

In conclusion, there cannot be a more urgent issue than the fight against climate change, but even this area is not isolated from global realpolitik. Given this, renewing the call for the world’s governments to focus their priorities becomes urgent.

*The author is an academic from the Universidad Panamericana; Prior to that, he had a twenty-year career in the federal government dealing with international trade negotiations.

Twitter: @JCBakerMX