Pemex foresees a positive balance in its financial balance until 2027

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) projected that it will reach a positive financial balance of around 36,200 million pesos until 2027 and, meanwhile, intends to stay at zero in 2023, but then report negative red numbers of 69,649 million pesos in 2024 and close this six-year term with a negative balance.

This was revealed in his 2023-2027 Business Plan, where he admitted that the next administration will bear the negative figures derived mainly from the financial cost of the debt that it drags and the tax burden of the company, which will lead to reporting a negative balance of 32,074 million pesos in 2025 and lower it a bit but keep it negative for 21,459 million pesos in 2026.

The macroeconomic framework provided by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit considers an oil price of 68.7 dollars per barrel for next year, as well as an exchange rate of 20.60 pesos per dollar. Likewise, the expected operating scenario contemplates a liquid production of 1,989 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensates and gas liquids, (from Pemex in its oil contracts and assignments, including partners), with a crude oil export of 1,047 million barrels per day. day and a crude process of 995 million barrels per day in the six refineries in the country.

With these variables, the company will reach the highest level of income of the decade in 2023: 2,428 billion pesos, an amount that will gradually decrease to 2,043 billion in 2024; to 2.028 trillion in 2025; to settle at 2.123 trillion in 2026, and finally at 2.217 trillion in 2027.

However, due to debt maturities of previously acquired commitments, Pemex will pay 148,086 million pesos as a net financial cost in 2023, an amount that is also the highest for the following years in which it will pay 55,437 million; 101,086 million, and 107,762 million pesos in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.

And although in the payment of direct contributions for the 2023-2028 horizon, it considers that the determination that for 2022 was made in accordance with article 22 of the Federal Income Law 2022 remains in force, by means of which it was established that, for the payment of the right to shared profit (DUC) that is paid per barrel of oil marketed and that is the main direct contribution of Petróleos Mexicanos, a rate of 40% will be applied instead of the rate of 54% provided for in article 39 of the Hydrocarbons Revenue Law.

Although the assumption of the applicable rate for the payment of the DUC of 40% is maintained, the Expenditure Budget Project 2023 and the Indicative Scenario of Financial Balance Goals (EIMBF) assume an increasing payment of contributions to the federal government by of Petroleos Mexicanos.

“As far as indirect contributions are concerned, in the 2023-2028 horizon, a moderately growing domestic sales scenario is estimated as of 2026 which, together with a forecast of decreasing prices, results in higher payments for Product Tax and Services, in addition to the fact that the increase in internal sales by itself, supposes a greater whole of the Value Added Tax”, exposes Pemex in its Plan.

The company calculates a payment of 510,276 million pesos of indirect taxes and 474,067 million as direct taxes in 2023, which means the highest amounts until 2027 and will lead Pemex to have a zero financial balance in the next year and negative for the next year. next three exercises.

karol.garcia@eleconomista.mx