The Prime Minister has been told to prepare for the second wave of coronavirus to be more deadly than the first, with the death toll likely to remain high throughout the winter, SAGE advisors have reportedly warned.
According to internal analysis provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), deaths will peak at a lower level than in the spring but could remain high for weeks or even months with a Christmas rest-bite unlikely.
A source told the Telegraph: ‘It’s going to be worse this time, more deaths. That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again.’
According to the SAGE prediction, all of England could be in Tier 3 restrictions by Christmas.
Covid rates all over the country are forecast to soar past the levels seen in areas already put into the ‘very high’ category over the next two months, while 25,000 people could be in hospital with the virus by the end of November — higher than the spring peak.
According to internal analysis provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), deaths will peak at a lower level than in the spring but could remain high for weeks or even months with a Christmas rest-bite unlikely
Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has reportedly urged Boris Johnson to take action by imposing a second lockdown to avoid the excess deaths, which are projected to reach 500 a day within the coming weeks.
Projections made by Sir Patrick appear to rule out the possibility of that the current nationwide restrictions – which dictate that people can only mix indoors and outdoors in groups of no more than six – will be eased up before Christmas.
A government source told The Sun: ‘The latest Sage numbers are utterly bleak.’
Dr Yvonne Doyle, the medical director of Public Health England, said: ‘We continue to see the trend in deaths rising, and it is likely this will continue for some time. Each day we see more people testing positive and hospital admissions increasing.
‘Being seriously ill enough from the infection to need hospital admission can sadly lead to more Covid-related deaths. We can help to control this virus.’
Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a visit to Royal Berkshire Hospital, Reading, to mark the publication of a new review into hospital food, October 26
Britain today recorded 367 more Covid-19 victims in the highest daily death toll since the end of May as a senior health official warned the number of fatalities will continue to rise ‘for some time’.
Despite the grisly death figures, Government statistics also offer hope the outbreak could finally be tailing off, with another 22,885 infections today — up just 7 per cent in a week. Coronavirus cases were doubling every week in September, which sparked fears the UK had sleep-walked into a second wave following a lull in transmission.
Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has reportedly urged Boris Johnson to impose a second lockdown
Infections are still a way off levels seen during the worst stage of the pandemic in March and April, when at least 100,000 Britons were catching the life-threatening illness every day. And top experts warn cases are still growing, even though data shows they are slowing down.
An internal memo from Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust showed that non-covid treatments had once again been suspended to cope with the growing number of covid patients, reports The Telegraph.
The memo – seen by the publication – from the trust’s deputy chief medical officer, David Berridge, warned that they had seen a 78 per cent rise in admissions in one week and suggested it was very likely ‘Leeds will move into Tier 3.
The UK would not be alone in imposing a second national lockdown as many European countries appear to be on the cusp of the same decision as infections increase to record levels.
In Germany Angela Merkel is said to be drawing up plans for a so-called ‘lockdown light’ in which bars and restaurants would shut but most schools would stay open.
While in France French President Macron is due to make a televised address at 8pm tomorrow which is expected to see a national lockdown imposed or a host of local measures and curfews extended.
The French government is envisaging a month-long national lockdown to combat the coronavirus resurgence which could take effect from midnight on Thursday, France’s BFM TV reported today.
In Italy bars and restaurants were ordered to close by 6pm and with public gyms, cinemas and swimming pools closed to try to slow a second wave of coronavirus infections that is battering much of the country.
West Yorkshire may be next to move into Tier Three affecting 1.8million people. If it were to be plunged into Tier Three, it would follow neighbours South Yorkshire, Lancashire and Greater Manchester
Office for National Statistics figures showed 761 Brits fell victim to the disease in the week ending October 16, the most recent recording period. Not since June 19, when there were 849 deaths, have more people lost their lives to the disease in a single week. At that point, the country was still in a national lockdown
IS WEST YORKSHIRE NEXT TO BE HIT WITH TIER 3 RESTRICTIONS?
Huddersfield MP Barry Sheerman said a Tier Three lockdown would be announced ‘quite soon’ in his borough of Kirklees
West Yorkshire looks set to become the next part of England to move into a Tier Three lockdown, after a local MP admitted the toughest restrictions were ‘inevitable’ because of spiralling cases and hospital admissions.
Speaking ahead of crunch talks with the Government this evening, Huddersfield MP Barry Sheerman said the new rules – which would plunge another 1.8million people into the harshest bracket of lockdown – would be announced ‘quite soon’.
On his borough of Kirklees, the Labour MP told Yorkshire Live: ‘Covid is rampant. Rates are going up. Hospitals are under pressure locally and nationally. I think they are going to put us in the next tier quite soon. It’s inevitable.’
Local officials across the region held crunch talks with senior ministers yesterday to discuss the ‘next steps’ in tackling Covid-19 in West Yorkshire, with further behind-closed-doors meetings scheduled tonight and in the coming days.
Kirklees is among five local authority areas within West Yorkshire, along with Leeds, Calderdale, Bradford and Wakefield. All five boroughs are already under Tier Two, which means people are banned from meeting up with friends and family indoors.
But a Tier Three status would see all pubs and bars have to close unless they serve meals. Residents would also be banned from mixing with anyone they don’t live with indoors or in private gardens and beer gardens.