A multifaceted year, with tributaries and roads that will surely surprise you. Thus, a 2022 with a huge basket of issues that, although diverse, converge in two pressure points for the country as a whole. Examples there are several in sight; the energy reform as a battering ram of discussions that tend to flare up, impregnated with political dogmas, the confrontation in the preparatory phase of the consultation exercise for the revocation of the mandate that has the government and the INE in corners other than the government and the INE, and an electoral scenario that can reconfigure the concentration of territorial power that Morena can foreseeably add. But this brief sample, thickened by many other topics, at the peak of the funnel, is characterized by two issues: a harsh scenario of greater polarization, and a context that is not conducive to soundness and economic recovery.
In the first case, little harmony can be expected in the face of priority issues that, fundamentally, mark a deep dividing line between the opinions of Mexicans. Hence, far from the search for consensus and middle points in positions, social mobilization, attack and questioning those who think differently, it seems that they will be the constants. It could not be different when there is a fundamental reform in front for the purposes of the federal government, such as the electricity reform; A legislator who opposes it will undoubtedly find the public derision channeled and, a party that does not align itself, will find the social pressure fostered. On the other hand, in a year where six governorships are at stake, the act of polarizing reinforces a convenient narrative for those who assume themselves as indicators of the just causes of the oppressed people.
But the most worrying thing is that these, and many more issues where the ideological and conceptual divorce runs deep, are not an incentive for the much-needed economic recovery. Above all, when there are factors that internally add to the adverse context. On the one hand, we have an inflationary cycle that has shown figures outside the objective of Banco de México for a long nine months. We are at levels that double the ceiling of 3%, and with the supervening pressure to increase the interest rate, it seems very difficult to reduce this level of inflation, which is already suffering and is palpable as it has not been done in 20 years. On the other hand, in this pernicious circle, the tax revenues expected for this year may be much lower due to the loss of solvency of the taxpayer. We must be aware that the forecasts reflected in the economic package seem optimistic in the face of factors such as the slowdown in the economic recovery in North America and the conditions of prolongation of the pandemic due to the appearance of new variants.
It is clear that in the face of adversity, consensus and basic national unity help a lot. Are we all willing to look for it?
Guillermo Deloya Cobián is a native of Puebla, with a law degree, specializing in tax law, a master in economics and government, and a doctorate in strategic planning and development policies. He is currently pursuing a master’s degree in creative writing at the University of Salamanca.
He is a columnist and commentator in various national and local media, has published eight books, as well as various essays on topics ranging from economic, political and legal, to a historical novel set in the 18th century.
He is a commentator and analyst on political, economic and legal issues at ADN40.
He has developed a constant teaching activity as a university professor both in Puebla and in CDMX.
He has 28 years of experience in the public sector where he has held positions at the federal and state levels, in the Attorney General’s Office of Mexico City, in the Attorney General’s Office, in the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. , in the Council of the Federal Judiciary and the Government of the State of Puebla, he was Coordinator of the National Institute for Federalism and Municipal Development, INAFED, of the Ministry of the Interior and has held various partisan positions.