Speculation is increasing about the possibility of Tehran launching a retaliatory attack on Israel, as the New York Times quoted an American official as saying, “The Iranian attack with drones and ballistic missiles on Israel will occur within 12 hours.”
The newspaper also quoted Israeli officials as identifying the military sites expected to be struck by Iran, while Axios reported, quoting a senior Israeli official, that “Tel Aviv believes that the Iranian attack on it will be carried out within the next few hours.”
However, the researcher specializing in regional affairs, Muhammad Saleh Sedqian, questioned the accuracy of this information, pointing out that it came from one party, and said: “We are now going through a state of ‘strategic ambiguity’, which Iran is pursuing, which makes predicting its future moves extremely important.” “Difficulty.”
He added, “The United States claims, based on intelligence information, that Iran is planning to respond with a ballistic missile or in a manner similar to what happened last April,” but he pointed out that the official Iranian positions appear more cautious and ambiguous, as Tehran does not speak explicitly about a missile attack. imminent.
Sadiqian stressed that such a decision requires the approval of the senior leadership, represented by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameneiaccording to the Iranian Constitution.
Response scenarios
The same speaker also made a statement Ali Shamkhanithe political advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, who said: “We are not talking, but the picture will become clear to you when we respond,” considering that this statement reinforces the hypothesis of “strategic ambiguity” pursued by Iran.
However, Sedqian pointed to the increasing voices inside Iran and among its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” demanding a decisive response to the Israeli attacks. Some believe that the lack of response to the recent assassinations has encouraged Israel to continue its aggression, but the analyst believes that they are “ignorant of the nature of the relationship.” Between Iran and the factions of the Axis of Resistance, specifically with Hezbollah“.
In his analysis of the options available to Iran, Sedqian points to two possible scenarios: the first is a direct missile strike from within Iranian territory, and the second is an indirect response through its allies in the region.
It is likely that Tehran may prefer the second option, to avoid luring the United States into a direct confrontation, and not to provide a “service” to the Israeli Prime Minister’s government. Benjamin Netanyahu Disturbed internally.
Sedqian asserts that “Iran is ready to support any party that confronts the Israeli entity,” noting that “it was Hezbollah's leadership that positioned itself against Israel, and Iran did not abandon it.”
He added that Iranian support for Hezbollah is evident in the advanced missiles it provided to it, which makes the party capable of confronting Israel without the need for the presence of Iranian advisors or fighters on Lebanese soil.
In a related context, the Israeli army spokesman said: Daniel HagariHe said: “Washington informed us that it is monitoring preparations from Iran to launch missiles towards Israel soon, and we have not detected any air threat launched from Iran, and there will be repercussions for any missile launch from Iran towards Israel.”
As tensions escalated, the US Embassy in Tel Aviv took precautionary measures, asking all its employees and their families to remain in their places until further notice. Reuters also indicated that oil prices rose by about 3% after reports of Iran’s preparations to launch a missile attack on Israel.