Quantum computing, a technology with the potential to dwarf the capabilities of current processors and revolutionize industries from medical research to cryptography, has sparked a speculative frenzy on Wall Street. However, investors are struggling to value these futuristic companies, resulting in highly volatile stock prices.
Companies such as Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. are at the forefront of this technological race. They aim to translate the principles of quantum theory into powerful machines capable of solving problems far beyond the reach of today’s supercomputers, potentially accelerated by artificial intelligence.
The buzz surrounding this potential has caused shares in these companies to surge by 100% or more this year. “All of a sudden, it feels like science fiction has moved into the world of real technological possibility,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs, which oversees a quantum-focused fund.
This excitement has left many strategists questioning the soaring valuations. “What is the right price to pay for a piece of the future?” asked Steve Sosnick, chief markets strategist at Interactive Brokers. He noted that Rigetti Computing’s share price soared from $1.06 to a high of $58, at one point becoming the fourth most actively traded stock among his firm’s clients, surpassing even Apple and Amazon.
Now trading around $38, Rigetti’s shares are valued at more than 1,000 times the company’s sales, a stark contrast to AI chipmaker Nvidia, which trades at about 50 times sales. While Rigetti’s financial statements show its operations remain unprofitable, a change in the value of securities it owned produced a bottom-line profit in the first quarter of 2025.
Christopher Poch, CEO of Promethium Advisors, described the valuation of such stocks as “a magic act.” He questioned, “How else can you explain a company that has a $13 billion market capitalization but only $22 million in forecast revenues?”
Despite the valuation concerns, some analysts remain bullish, though they acknowledge the difficulty in pricing these stocks. David Williams of Benchmark Equity Research rates Rigetti a “buy,” but told Reuters that “the valuation on quantum names is more of an art than science.” Similarly, B. Riley analyst Craig Ellis recently downgraded Rigetti to “Neutral” over its “premium valuation,” yet simultaneously raised his price target on the stock.
Recent developments have fueled the investor fervor. Last month, JPMorgan Chase announced plans to invest up to $10 billion in strategic sectors including quantum computing. This followed an announcement from IBM and HSBC about a new quantum-based bond trading platform. Investor excitement was further ignited by reports that the U.S. government might inject funding in exchange for equity, though a Department of Commerce official has since stated that it is “not currently negotiating” such deals.
While a McKinsey report projects the quantum computing market could eventually exceed $100 billion, the technology is still in its infancy. Even experts in disruptive technology investing urge caution. “It’s the holy grail of computing; the use case is undeniable, and undeniably awesome,” said Rick Bradt, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman. “But there’s still a lot of uncertainty about the timing.”
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