Queretaro, Qro. Livestock producers predict a new rise in their production costs at the end of the year; derived from rising prices of raw materials such as corn and sorghumrises of between 50 and 70% are expected in this type of input, estimated the president of the Querétaro Regional Livestock Union (UGRQ), Alejandro Ugalde Tinoco.
This increase in prices will derive from various factors, among them, they project that the dry season will be brought forward, from March 2023 to the end of 2022, which could raise fodder prices; He explained that in this situation the drought conditions that prevail in various regions continue to have an impact.
“All the livestock sectormainly the semi-desert and the northern part (of the state), we are always preparing for the acquisition of fodder, for the dry season, but the dry season is always expected in March, but this year it will most likely start in December , then the product is going to become more expensive, we are already beginning to see that and that is causing us a point of alert (…) they could rise (costs) almost to 50 to 70% of what we have today”, he pointed out.
Only the price of sorghum, he said, has risen almost 50% in the last two years, but it could increase more due to the demand that will be generated in the coming months.
Alejandro Ugalde explained that the increases in production costs they have largely been absorbed by the producers; however, even though the prices of live cattle have not risen considerably, there is an increase in prices for the final consumer.
“This increase has not been reflected in the sale price (of cattle) on the hoof, perhaps we see very high prices for human consumption, but the price of the hoof has reflected an increase of 17 to 18% in almost all the species, all the producers have had to absorb these losses, that is why it worries me, it worries me a lot”, he added.
Added to this scenario is the fact that agricultural producers postponed seasonal planting, due to the effects of the drought, which currently represents a risk, since low rainfall -in the current rainy season- could cause frosts that would affect this production.
“When it doesn’t rain much during the year, the frosts come very early and this means that people who planted late can get a frost and the harvest can be lost; Unfortunately, that would have more repercussions, not on the consumer, who are the farmers, but on the producer”, he explained.
To address this problem, the UGRQ has launched lines of credit to the livestock associations that it integrates, in order to anticipate the purchase of fodder and face the next dry season.
In previous years, they have acquired between 60,000 and 70,000 bales, mainly in the Bajío region, to guarantee the needs of the producers.
For this year, he predicted, they could acquire about 100,000 bales, to mitigate the drought that could occur between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023.
“I have discussed it with the producers in the region and we are promoting lines of credit to them in the UGRQ so that we can go and compare those forages, now that the harvest is coming in neighboring states, mainly Guanajuato and Jalisco, we can bring product and mitigate a little the costs, because I do see a very strong focus of alert because the costs are going to increase”, he highlighted.
With this purchase it is estimated to cover almost 70% of the producers of the year, mainly from the Semi-desert and Sierra Gorda de Querétaro regions, where 12,000 livestock producers are concentrated.
Regarding the persistence of the drought, the seven main dams in the state register 20.3% of storage, as of September 17, the lowest level reported in the country, detailed reports from the National Water Commission (Conagua).
estados@eleconomista.mx
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