Raw materials, the winners of the war

Two months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the prices of raw materials have been the most benefited, as they maintain their upward trend, in addition there are more factors that also drive their prices, specialists explained.

The futures prices, in the international grain market, present the greatest gains, led by wheat with a rise of 21.63%, since it has gone from 8.76 to 10.65 dollars per bushel, while corn advances 15.98%, placing itself from 6.83 at $7.93 per bushel. In fact, wheat gained 20.34% in 2021 and corn 22.57% last year.

For its part, soybeans barely increased 2.45%, since their prices were at 16.75 dollars per bushel when the war broke out and now they are at 17.16 dollars per bushel. During 2021, soybeans had only a 1.03% rise in its price.

Ana Azuara, specialist in Raw Materials at Banco Base, indicated that these increases in grain prices are due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also to unfavorable weather conditions. There are droughts in South America and snowfall in Canada; In addition, it is cold in the part of North Dakota in the United States, which will delay the planting of grains.

The second market with the highest increases is oil.

The Mexican export mix has risen 13.19% to 100.21 dollars per unit since the war broke out.

In the United States, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate, WTI, accumulates a gain of 10.70% to 102.07 dollars, while the European benchmark Brent from the North Sea has an increase of 10.21%, standing at 106.65 dollars per barrel.

During 2021, the WTI had a rise of 55.01%, while the Brent gained 50.12% and the Mexican mix advanced 51.17 percent.

Ana Azuara explained that, “the upward pressures have moderated in the face of the expectation that the Fed will make faster increases in the reference rate and the economic slowdown in China, due to the new outbreaks of coronavirus and the negative economic effects of the war. in Ukraine in Europe, but prices are still extremely high.”

Natural gas, on the other hand, has had the biggest decline among raw materials, with a drop of 19.66%, from 2.13 to 1.71 pounds sterling per million British thermal units. In 2021, it was up 202.55 percent.

“More than a reduction in its price, I would say that it is moderating, mainly due to lower demand because it is spring, but in general the risks, especially in Europe due to its dependence on natural gas from Russia, continue,” said Azuara.

Within metals, the prices that have risen are those of zinc (24.16%) and gold (1.08%), silver and aluminum fall 1.38 and 1.43 percent, respectively. And copper rose 2.47 percent. In 2021, aluminum rose 41.83%, zinc 28.46% and copper 25.17%, while gold and silver fell 4.49 and 12.07 percent.

termometro.economico@eleconomista.mx